Energy
Today’s price sits at the 80.1th percentile of modeled fair value — 20% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 30–160 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–160 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 85.4
- Upside to median
- -14.6%
- Last close
- $146.07
- Confidence
- moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +28.0%
- P75
- +10.0%
- Median
- -6.0%
- P25
- -22.0%
- P10
- -38.0%
40% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Spot normalization along the official forecast path, partly offset by roll yield from futures backwardation, with a fat upside tail for renewed supply disruption. Low-reliability estimate.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +8.0%
- P75
- +1.5%
- Median
- -5.0%
- P25
- -11.5%
- P10
- -18.0%
Price normalization toward late-2027 forecast levels and marginal cost, spread over three years.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.65%
- Modeled excess
- -10.7%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled median 1-year return less the 4.65% 1-year Treasury par yield; the modeled edge is strongly negative, and the Treasury offers a better expected return with much lower uncertainty.