Fixed Income
Today’s price sits at the 37.3th percentile of modeled fair value — 63% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 101.0
- Upside to median
- +1.0%
- Last close
- $70.59
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +10.6%
- P75
- +8.0%
- Median
- +5.4%
- P25
- +2.8%
- P10
- 0.0%
92% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Starting yield estimated from the Treasury curve plus a modest credit spread, plus partial price convergence toward median fair value; yield-change scenarios translated through an assumed duration of about six years.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +7.7%
- P75
- +6.5%
- Median
- +5.2%
- P25
- +3.9%
- P10
- +2.6%
Starting-yield anchor compounded over three years, with price effects of yield changes amortized across the horizon.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.65%
- Modeled excess
- +0.8%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled median 1-year return less the 4.65% 1-year Treasury par yield; a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return. The 1-year Treasury is a competitive alternative with much lower price risk.
7 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BND US Broad Bond Market | +0.8Somewhat cheap | 101.0 | $70.59 | +5.4% |
| HYG High-Yield Corporate Bonds | —Unavailable | — | $76.98 | — |
| IEF Intermediate US Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $90.15 | — |
| LQD Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds | —Unavailable | — | $103.05 | — |
| SHY Short-Term US Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $81.13 | — |
| TIP Inflation-Protected Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $104.77 | — |
| TLT Long-Term US Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $79.67 | — |