Europe Equities
Data cutoff
Modeled fair value
VGK · Europe Broad Market
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100
Today’s price sits at the 46.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 54% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 101.0
- Upside to median
- +1.0%
- Last close
- $88.91
- Confidence
- moderate-high
index, market = 100
2026-11-12
65/100
Modeled returns
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +25.0%
- P75
- +16.0%
- Median
- +7.0%
- P25
- -2.5%
- P10
- -13.0%
69% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Dividend yield of about 3% plus mid-single-digit earnings growth with no assumed re-rating; unhedged US-dollar returns include euro, sterling and franc risk.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +16.0%
- P75
- +12.0%
- Median
- +7.5%
- P25
- +3.0%
- P10
- -1.5%
Same building blocks compounded over three years.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.65%
- Modeled excess
- +2.4%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled median 1-year return less the 4.65% 1-year Treasury par yield; a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return.
Instruments
6 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EWG Germany Index | -0.7Somewhat expensive | 97.0 | $42.81 | — |
| EWL Switzerland Index | —Unavailable | — | $64.90 | — |
| EWQ France Index | +0.2Fair | 101.0 | $43.82 | — |
| EWU United Kingdom Index | +0.9Somewhat cheap | 104.0 | $47.76 | — |
| EZU Eurozone Equity Index | —Unavailable | — | $67.23 | — |
| VGK Europe Broad Market | +0.2Fair | 101.0 | $88.91 | +7.0% |