Crypto
Today’s price sits at the 45.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 55% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 10–210 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–160 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 103.1
- Upside to median
- +3.1%
- Last close
- $40.36
- Confidence
- low-moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +70.0%
- P75
- +38.0%
- Median
- +6.0%
- P25
- -22.0%
- P10
- -45.0%
56% of modeled scenarios end positive.
No cash flows; return scenarios combine modest convergence toward median fair value with very wide adoption and liquidity outcomes. Low-reliability estimate.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +34.0%
- P75
- +20.0%
- Median
- +6.0%
- P25
- -8.0%
- P10
- -25.0%
Same scenario set compounded over three years; extremely wide range.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.65%
- Modeled excess
- +1.4%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled median 1-year return less the 4.65% 1-year Treasury par yield; a thin modeled edge relative to very large return uncertainty, and the Treasury is competitive on a risk-adjusted basis.