Emerging Markets Equities
Data cutoff
Modeled fair value
VWO · Emerging Markets Broad Index
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100
Today’s price sits at the 43.6th percentile of modeled fair value — 56% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 101.7
- Upside to median
- +1.7%
- Last close
- $56.43
- Confidence
- moderate
index, market = 100
2026-11-12
62/100
Modeled returns
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +29.0%
- P75
- +19.0%
- Median
- +8.0%
- P25
- -3.5%
- P10
- -15.0%
68% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Dividend yield near 3% plus earnings growth tempered for cyclical semiconductor and commodity exposure, with small valuation convergence; US-dollar returns include currency risk.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +17.5%
- P75
- +13.0%
- Median
- +8.0%
- P25
- +3.0%
- P10
- -2.5%
Same building blocks compounded over three years with partial normalization of cyclical earnings.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.65%
- Modeled excess
- +3.4%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled median 1-year return less the 4.65% 1-year Treasury par yield; a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return.
Instruments
7 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EMXC Emerging Markets Ex-China | —Unavailable | — | $89.57 | — |
| EWT Taiwan Index | -0.9Somewhat expensive | 95.7 | $97.25 | — |
| EWY South Korea Index | +1.0Somewhat cheap | 104.7 | $145.38 | — |
| EWZ Brazil Index | +0.8Somewhat cheap | 103.7 | $31.78 | — |
| EZA South Africa Index | +0.6Somewhat cheap | 102.7 | $65.36 | — |
| INDA India Index | +0.2Fair | 100.7 | $51.55 | — |
| VWO Emerging Markets Broad Index | +0.4Somewhat cheap | 101.7 | $56.43 | +8.0% |