Valuation Lens — September 29, 2026
A 4.58% one-year Treasury par yield and a 2.91% ten-year real yield reset the hurdle for every asset class: US equities now price at the 87th percentile of their modeled fair-value distribution, while Chinese equities, intermediate bonds and listed real estate still carry positive modeled fair-value gaps.
Every asset class is indexed so today’s market price equals 100. A median fair value of 112 means the model puts fair value 12% above the current price; 93 means 7% below it. Modeled returns are distributions, not forecasts.
The one-year Treasury par yield of 4.58% sits above the 3.88% effective funds rate while the ten-year real yield of 2.91% is at its highest level in a decade, raising the opportunity cost for every risk asset.
- 10y Treasury
- 5.3%
- 10y real
- 2.9%
Cheap to expensive
Ranked by valuation score. Positive means the model sees value below the market price — the opposite convention to a trend score, so the labels are always shown alongside.
- +1.4Cheap
- Median fair value
- 112.499.4–128.2
- Upside to median
- +12.4%
- 1y modeled
- +12.0%-26.0% to 43.0%
- vs Treasury
- +7.4%
- Fixed IncomeBND+0.8Somewhat cheap
- Median fair value
- 101.698.2–104.5
- Upside to median
- +1.6%
- 1y modeled
- +5.6%-2.0% to 13.0%
- vs Treasury
- +1.0%
- Real EstateVNQ+0.1Fair
- Median fair value
- 100.694.2–107.2
- Upside to median
- +0.6%
- 1y modeled
- +6.5%-14.0% to 22.0%
- vs Treasury
- +1.9%
- CryptoBTC-USD+0.1Fair
- Median fair value
- 101.484.6–120.5
- Upside to median
- +1.4%
- 1y modeled
- +6.0%-48.0% to 85.0%
- vs Treasury
- +1.4%
- -0.3Fair
- Median fair value
- 97.791.6–105.4
- Upside to median
- -2.3%
- 1y modeled
- +7.5%-14.0% to 24.5%
- vs Treasury
- +2.9%
- MetalsGLD-0.4Somewhat expensive
- Median fair value
- 97.886.3–106.6
- Upside to median
- -2.2%
- 1y modeled
- +2.0%-24.0% to 27.0%
- vs Treasury
- -2.6%
- EnergyUSO-0.6Somewhat expensive
- Median fair value
- 97.588.2–105.6
- Upside to median
- -2.5%
- 1y modeled
- -2.0%-33.0% to 26.0%
- vs Treasury
- -6.6%
- -0.7Somewhat expensive
- Median fair value
- 96.889.6–104.4
- Upside to median
- -3.2%
- 1y modeled
- +7.0%-17.0% to 25.0%
- vs Treasury
- +2.4%
- -0.7Somewhat expensive
- Median fair value
- 96.191.0–105.5
- Upside to median
- -3.9%
- 1y modeled
- +9.0%-20.0% to 32.0%
- vs Treasury
- +4.4%
- -0.7Somewhat expensive
- Median fair value
- 96.387.9–105.5
- Upside to median
- -3.7%
- 1y modeled
- +7.0%-13.0% to 22.5%
- vs Treasury
- +2.4%
- US EquitiesSPY-2.2Expensive
- Median fair value
- 90.282.5–97.5
- Upside to median
- -9.8%
- 1y modeled
- +5.5%-16.0% to 22.0%
- vs Treasury
- +0.9%
Scores run −3 to +3: −3 is very expensive against modeled fair value, +3 very cheap. Positive means undervalued.
“1y modeled” shows the median of a scenario distribution with its 10th-to-90th percentile range beneath. These are model outputs under stated assumptions, not predictions, and the range is as important as the midpoint.
Where the market sits inside modeled fair value
Each curve is the model's full range of fair-value outcomes. The solid marker is today's price; the dashed line is the median of the distribution.
China & Hong Kong Equities
Today’s price sits at the 26.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 69% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 50–190 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–160 would clip this distribution’s tails.
Fixed Income
Today’s price sits at the 36.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 58% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
Real Estate
Today’s price sits at the 48.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 46% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Crypto
Today’s price sits at the 48.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 46% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 10–200 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–160 would clip this distribution’s tails.
Europe Equities
Today’s price sits at the 54.7th percentile of modeled fair value — 46% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Metals
Today’s price sits at the 56.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 46% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 40–160 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–160 would clip this distribution’s tails.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
Energy
Today’s price sits at the 60.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 34% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
Japan Equities
Today’s price sits at the 61.7th percentile of modeled fair value — 34% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Emerging Markets Equities
Today’s price sits at the 62.3th percentile of modeled fair value — 34% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Developed Pacific Equities
Today’s price sits at the 61.4th percentile of modeled fair value — 34% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
US Equities
Today’s price sits at the 87.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 14% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 40–160 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–160 would clip this distribution’s tails.
Sources17
- 1Major Stock Index PE Ratiosworldperatio.com
- 2The State of REITs: September 2026 Edition2nd Market Capital Advisory Corp
- 3
- 4Gold Demand Trends Q2 2026 — Central BanksWorld Gold Council
- 5
- 6Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2026U.S. Energy Information Administration
- 7
- 8
- 9
- 10
- 11Stock Market Valuation — S&P 500 (forward and trailing earnings, equity risk premium)StreetStats / Overview Markets LLC
- 12Corporate Bonds — Investment Grade & High Yield Bond Yields and Spreads (methodology)StreetStats / Overview Markets LLC
- 13ICE BofA US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread (BAMLH0A0HYM2)ICE Data Indices, LLC via Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED)
- 14ICE BofA US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread (BAMLC0A0CM)ICE Data Indices, LLC via Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED)
- 15
- 16Global P/E ratios by country, month-end August 2026Siblis Research
- 17
- Methodology
- cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4
- Schema version
- 3.4.0
- Run ID
- vl_2026-09-29_cxpw_v340
This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.