US Equities
Today’s price sits at the 87.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 14% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 40–160 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–160 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 90.2
- Upside to median
- -9.8%
- Last close
- $764.20
- Confidence
- high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +22.0%
- P75
- +13.5%
- Median
- +5.5%
- P25
- -3.0%
- P10
- -16.0%
62% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Sustainable earnings growth of about 7%, well below the 17.6% one-year consensus because that figure is levered off a record profit share, plus a dividend yield of about 1.2%, less 22% of the modeled -9.8% fair-value gap converging within the year. Net buybacks are treated as inside earnings growth rather than added separately to avoid double counting. The scenario-implied beat probability is diagnostic only: the 4.58% one-year Treasury par hurdle sits between the modeled P25 of -3.0% and the median of 5.5%, which the consistency check places in the 50% to 75% band.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +12.0%
- P75
- +8.5%
- Median
- +4.5%
- P25
- +0.5%
- P10
- -4.0%
Three-year explicit model: forward EPS compounded at about 10% for three years, below the one-year consensus and above the long-run real-plus-inflation norm, a terminal forward multiple of 18.0x, dividends and buybacks included, discounted at the 5.26% ten-year Treasury yield plus a 5.5% equity risk premium. The three-year median is below the one-year median because more of the modeled valuation gap is assumed to close over the longer horizon.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.58%
- Expected excess
- +0.9%
- Basis
- direct
The narrowest positive modeled edge of any equity class in this report: 0.92 percentage points over the 4.58% one-year Treasury par yield, inside a modeled P10 to P90 return range of 38 percentage points. Stated plainly, a one-year Treasury currently offers a broadly comparable central expected return with materially lower uncertainty, and the forward earnings yield of 5.21% is itself 5 basis points below the ten-year Treasury yield.
10 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DIA US Blue-Chip Index | -1.5Expensive | 94.0 | $512.88 | +6.5% |
| IWM US Small-Cap Index | -0.6Somewhat expensive | 99.0 | $279.01 | +7.7% |
| QQQ US Technology Index | -2.4Exceptionally expensive | 89.0 | $737.93 | +5.2% |
| RSP US Equal-Weight Index | -1.3Expensive | 95.0 | $209.50 | +6.7% |
| SMH US Semiconductor Sector | -3.0Exceptionally expensive | 78.0 | $606.90 | +2.5% |
| SPY US Large-Cap Index | -2.2Expensive | 90.2 | $764.20 | +5.5% |
| XLF US Financial Sector | -1.0Somewhat expensive | 97.0 | $54.01 | +7.2% |
| XLI US Industrial Sector | -2.1Expensive | 91.0 | $169.13 | +5.7% |
| XLV US Healthcare Sector | +0.3Fair | 104.0 | $170.73 | +8.9% |
| XLY US Consumer Discretionary Sector | -2.6Exceptionally expensive | 88.0 | $109.15 | +4.9% |