China & Hong Kong Equities
Today’s price sits at the 26.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 69% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 50–190 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–160 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 112.4
- Upside to median
- +12.4%
- Last close
- $52.10
- Confidence
- moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +43.0%
- P75
- +28.0%
- Median
- +12.0%
- P25
- -5.0%
- P10
- -26.0%
62% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Decomposed one-year total return: trailing distribution yield of about 2.8% plus buybacks, sustainable earnings growth of about 8% after a policy-risk haircut to consensus, and 25% of the modeled +12.4% fair-value gap converging within the year. The scenario-implied beat probability is read off the modeled return quantiles against the 4.58% one-year Treasury par hurdle and is diagnostic only; it is never promoted to a calibrated probability.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +24.0%
- P75
- +17.5%
- Median
- +10.5%
- P25
- +2.5%
- P10
- -6.0%
Three-year explicit model: distribution and buyback yield, nominal earnings growth partially normalized toward nominal GDP, and roughly two thirds of the modeled fair-value gap closing over three years, discounted at the one-year Treasury hurdle plus an 8.5% China equity risk premium.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.58%
- Expected excess
- +7.4%
- Basis
- proxy
The 1-year Treasury par yield of 4.58% is the investment-basis hurdle. The modeled excess is a spread against a risk-free alternative denominated in dollars, while the benchmark carries unhedged renminbi and Hong Kong dollar exposure plus policy and listing-structure risk, so the comparison is a proxy rather than a like-for-like contract.
9 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2800.HK Hang Seng Index Tracker | +1.6Cheap | 115.0 | $25.12 | +12.7% |
| 3033.HK Hang Seng Technology Index | +1.0Somewhat cheap | 108.0 | $4.24 | +10.9% |
| ASHR China A-Shares | +0.6Somewhat cheap | 104.0 | $32.66 | +9.9% |
| CHIQ China Consumer Sector | +1.7Cheap | 116.0 | $15.73 | +12.9% |
| CQQQ China Technology Sector | +1.2Somewhat cheap | 110.0 | $45.17 | +11.4% |
| EWH Hong Kong Broad Market | +1.6Cheap | 115.0 | $22.22 | +12.7% |
| FXI China Large-Cap | +2.5Exceptionally cheap | 124.0 | $33.86 | +14.9% |
| KWEB China Internet Sector | +1.9Cheap | 118.0 | $24.37 | +13.4% |
| MCHI China Broad Market | +1.4Cheap | 112.4 | $52.10 | +12.0% |