Developed Pacific Equities
Today’s price sits at the 61.4th percentile of modeled fair value — 34% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 96.3
- Upside to median
- -3.7%
- Last close
- $28.37
- Confidence
- moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +22.5%
- P75
- +15.0%
- Median
- +7.0%
- P25
- -0.5%
- P10
- -13.0%
65% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Dividend yield of roughly 4.0%, the highest of any equity class here given Australian franking and Singapore bank payouts, plus sustainable earnings growth of about 4.5% on a bank- and materials-weighted base, less 25% of the modeled -3.7% fair-value gap converging within the year. Returns are unhedged across Australian, Singapore and New Zealand dollars. The scenario-implied beat probability is diagnostic only and is read against the 4.58% one-year Treasury par hurdle.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +13.0%
- P75
- +9.5%
- Median
- +6.0%
- P25
- +2.5%
- P10
- -2.0%
Three-year explicit model: dividend yield plus nominal earnings growth partially normalized toward regional nominal GDP, with the modeled fair-value gap closing over three years at a terminal forward multiple in the 16x to 18x range, discounted at the one-year Treasury hurdle plus a 4.5% developed-Pacific equity risk premium.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.58%
- Expected excess
- +2.4%
- Basis
- proxy
A modeled 2.42 percentage point edge over the 4.58% one-year Treasury par yield, earned largely as dividend income across three unhedged currencies. Australian, Singapore and New Zealand policy rates are not supplied, so local discount rates are inferred rather than measured.