Emerging Markets Equities
Today’s price sits at the 62.3th percentile of modeled fair value — 34% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 96.1
- Upside to median
- -3.9%
- Last close
- $59.62
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +32.0%
- P75
- +21.0%
- Median
- +9.0%
- P25
- -4.0%
- P10
- -20.0%
63% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Dividend yield of roughly 2.8% plus sustainable earnings growth of about 8.5%, reflecting the semiconductor earnings cycle in Taiwan and continued Indian nominal growth, less 25% of the modeled -3.9% fair-value gap converging within the year. Returns are unhedged across many currencies, which widens the quantiles more than for any single-country class. The scenario-implied beat probability is diagnostic only and is read against the 4.58% one-year Treasury par hurdle.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +17.0%
- P75
- +12.5%
- Median
- +7.5%
- P25
- +2.0%
- P10
- -4.0%
Three-year explicit model: dividend yield plus nominal earnings growth partially normalized away from the current semiconductor-cycle peak, with the modeled fair-value gap closing over three years at a terminal forward multiple in the 13x to 15x range, discounted at the one-year Treasury hurdle plus a 6.0% emerging-market equity risk premium.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.58%
- Expected excess
- +4.4%
- Basis
- proxy
The second-widest modeled edge in the report at 4.42 percentage points over the 4.58% one-year Treasury par yield, but earned across many unhedged currencies with a 52 percentage point P10 to P90 return spread. A broad dollar index roughly flat year on year is neutral for this comparison rather than supportive.
7 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EMXC Emerging Markets Ex-China | -1.5Expensive | 92.0 | $100.35 | +8.0% |
| EWT Taiwan Index | -3.0Exceptionally expensive | 82.0 | $114.11 | +5.5% |
| EWY South Korea Index | +1.5Cheap | 108.0 | $187.10 | +12.0% |
| EWZ Brazil Index | +1.5Cheap | 108.0 | $36.47 | +12.0% |
| EZA South Africa Index | +1.9Cheap | 110.0 | $64.85 | +12.5% |
| INDA India Index | -0.5Somewhat expensive | 97.0 | $46.94 | +9.2% |
| VWO Emerging Markets Broad Index | -0.7Somewhat expensive | 96.1 | $59.62 | +9.0% |