Metals
Today’s price sits at the 56.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 46% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 40–160 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–160 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 97.8
- Upside to median
- -2.2%
- Last close
- $382.89
- Confidence
- moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +27.0%
- P75
- +15.0%
- Median
- +2.0%
- P25
- -10.0%
- P10
- -24.0%
53% of modeled scenarios end positive.
No cash flow, coupon or carry exists, so the modeled return is expected real price change plus 10-year breakeven inflation of 2.35%, less fund expenses, and less 25% of the modeled -2.2% fair-value gap converging within the year. The real-price component is centred slightly negative because the ten-year real yield sits at its decade high. The scenario-implied beat probability is diagnostic only and is read against the 4.58% one-year Treasury par hurdle.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +15.5%
- P75
- +10.0%
- Median
- +3.0%
- P25
- -3.5%
- P10
- -11.0%
Three-year path anchored on breakeven inflation of 2.35% plus a modest real-price contribution from continued official-sector accumulation and the silver and platinum supply deficits, offset by a partial normalization of the real-yield relationship as real rates retreat from their decade high.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.58%
- Expected excess
- -2.6%
- Basis
- proxy
The modeled one-year return sits 2.58 percentage points below the 4.58% one-year Treasury par yield. Stated plainly: on these numbers Treasury bills offer a higher central expected return than the metals complex with far lower uncertainty, and a 2.91% real Treasury yield is the direct competitor to a zero-coupon inflation hedge.
7 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CPER Copper | -0.9Somewhat expensive | 94.0 | $39.93 | +1.1% |
| DBB Base Metals | -0.6Somewhat expensive | 96.0 | $25.56 | +1.6% |
| GDX Gold Miners | 0.0Fair | 101.0 | $89.07 | +2.8% |
| GLD Gold | -0.4Somewhat expensive | 97.8 | $382.89 | +2.0% |
| PICK Global Metals and Mining | -0.2Fair | 99.0 | $59.95 | +2.3% |
| PPLT Platinum | +1.0Somewhat cheap | 108.0 | $15.47 | +4.6% |
| SLV Silver | +0.7Somewhat cheap | 106.0 | $55.48 | +4.1% |