Crypto
Today’s price sits at the 48.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 46% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 10–200 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–160 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 101.4
- Upside to median
- +1.4%
- Last close
- $47.33
- Confidence
- low-moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +85.0%
- P75
- +44.0%
- Median
- +6.0%
- P25
- -24.0%
- P10
- -48.0%
54% of modeled scenarios end positive.
No cash flow, coupon or carry exists, so the modeled return is the change in the premium to aggregate cost basis plus the drift in realized price itself as new supply is acquired at higher levels, with 20% of the modeled +1.4% fair-value gap converging within the year. The quantile width is set from the observed 2025 to 2026 range of MVRV outcomes, including a peak-to-trough drawdown exceeding 50% between October 2025 and mid-2026. The scenario-implied beat probability is diagnostic only.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +42.0%
- P75
- +25.0%
- Median
- +8.0%
- P25
- -5.0%
- P10
- -22.0%
Three-year path anchored on continued growth in aggregate cost basis as institutional vehicles accumulate supply, with the premium to that cost basis mean-reverting toward the middle of its observed 2025 to 2026 distribution. Ranges are deliberately wider and confidence lower than for any contractual cash-flow asset, per Section 28.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.58%
- Expected excess
- +1.4%
- Basis
- proxy
A modeled 1.42 percentage point edge over the 4.58% one-year Treasury par yield sits inside a modeled P10 to P90 return range of roughly 133 percentage points. On these numbers the Treasury offers a broadly comparable central expected return with incomparably lower uncertainty, and that contrast is the most decision-relevant statement about this asset class today.