Valuation Lens - August 28, 2026
China and emerging markets screen cheapest, while U.S. equities and energy look rich against a 4.04% one-year Treasury hurdle.
CXProWealth.com
VALUATION INTELLIGENCE
Cross-asset valuation & forward return intelligence
Valuation Lens - August 28, 2026
China and emerging markets lead value while U.S. equities remain expensive
As of August 28, 2026
11 Asset Classes Valued
72 Valuation Instruments
1Y Treasury 4.04%
Research cutoff · Aug 29, 2026 · 01:22 UTC
WHAT THIS REPORT DOES How Valuation Lens estimates present fair value and identifies markets that look cheap, fair, or expensive.
VALUATION FRAMEWORK
Valuation Lens helps investors judge whether current market pricing looks cheap, fair, or expensive relative to modeled present fair value.
Each asset class is evaluated by comparing today’s market price with a distribution of defensible current economic values. That fair-value distribution is built from asset-specific fundamentals, expected growth and cash-flow progression, valuation relationships and multiples, interest-rate and real-yield conditions, historical valuation context, and other relevant economic anchors. The result is not a pure price target: it is a structured estimate of what the asset could reasonably be worth today under a range of economically defensible assumptions.
Undervalued vs overvalued
Where market price sits within the modeled fair-value distribution determines the valuation score: toward the lower tail means cheaper, toward the upper tail means more expensive, and near the center is closer to fair.
Decision-useful outputs
The report highlights fair-value gap, modeled expected return, expected edge versus the 1Y Treasury benchmark, and confidence in the valuation signal.
How to use it
Use the valuation score and fair-value curve as a disciplined decision aid alongside risk, diversification, and time-horizon considerations.
1Y Treasury benchmark
4.04%
Low-risk return reference
Cheapest valuation
China & HK
+1.4 · Cheap
Most expensive valuation
U.S. Equities
-1.5 · Expensive
Highest expected edge vs Treasury
+6.0%
Crypto
Cross-asset valuation & expected return
Valuation opportunity map
Green = cheaper relative to modeled fair value. Red = more expensive. Tiles are ordered from cheaper to more expensive.
CHEAPER +3-3 MORE EXPENSIVE
China & HK
+1.4
Cheap
Fair gap +12.0% · Edge +5.0%
Emerging Mkts
+1.0
Somewhat cheap
Fair gap +8.0% · Edge +4.5%
Fixed Income
+0.9
Somewhat cheap
Fair gap +2.0% · Edge +0.9%
Europe Equities
+0.6
Somewhat cheap
Fair gap +4.0% · Edge +3.5%
Crypto
+0.3
Fair
Fair gap +5.0% · Edge +6.0%
Japan Equities
+0.2
Fair
Fair gap +1.0% · Edge +2.5%
Metals
-0.2
Fair
Fair gap -2.0% · Edge +0.5%
Real Estate
-0.3
Fair
Fair gap -2.0% · Edge +1.5%
Developed Pacific
-0.4
Somewhat expensive
Fair gap -3.0% · Edge +1.5%
Energy
-0.6
Somewhat expensive
Fair gap -8.0% · Edge -0.5%
U.S. Equities
-1.5
Expensive
Fair gap -8.0% · Edge +1.0%
Select an asset to open its fair value, expected returns, historical calibration, key drivers, and risks.
Detailed valuation dashboard
M = Market price (100) · F = Median fair value · common axis 30–210
How to read the fair-value curve
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, the chart shows the range of defensible current economic values.
M Market price normalized to 100
F Median modeled fair value
P25–P75 central fair-value range
| Asset class | Fair-value distribution | Valuation | Fair-value gap | 1Y expected | Expected edge vs 1Y Treasury | Val. confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
China & Hong Kong Equities
View details
|
|
+1.4 Cheap | +12.0% Fair 112 | +9.0% -13% to +35% | +5.0% Treasury 4.0% | 85% high |
|
Emerging Markets Equities
View details
|
|
+1.0 Somewhat cheap | +8.0% Fair 108 | +8.5% -14% to +35% | +4.5% Treasury 4.0% | 85% high |
|
Fixed Income
View details
|
|
+0.9 Somewhat cheap | +2.0% Fair 102 | +4.9% +1% to +9% | +0.9% Treasury 4.0% | 94% high |
|
Europe Equities
View details
|
|
+0.6 Somewhat cheap | +4.0% Fair 104 | +7.5% -10% to +26% | +3.5% Treasury 4.0% | 88% high |
|
Crypto
View details
|
|
+0.3 Fair | +5.0% Fair 105 | +10.0% -42% to +78% | +6.0% Treasury 4.0% | 66% moderate-high |
|
Japan Equities
View details
|
|
+0.2 Fair | +1.0% Fair 101 | +6.5% -11% to +25% | +2.5% Treasury 4.0% | 87% high |
|
Metals
View details
|
|
-0.2 Fair | -2.0% Fair 98 | +4.5% -20% to +33% | +0.5% Treasury 4.0% | 82% high |
|
Real Estate
View details
|
|
-0.3 Fair | -2.0% Fair 98 | +5.5% -13% to +27% | +1.5% Treasury 4.0% | 84% high |
|
Developed Pacific Equities
View details
|
|
-0.4 Somewhat expensive | -3.0% Fair 97 | +5.5% -12% to +24% | +1.5% Treasury 4.0% | 84% high |
|
Energy
View details
|
|
-0.6 Somewhat expensive | -8.0% Fair 92 | +3.5% -24% to +35% | -0.5% Treasury 4.0% | 83% high |
|
US Equities
View details
|
|
-1.5 Expensive | -8.0% Fair 92 | +5.0% -11% to +22% | +1.0% Treasury 4.0% | 90% high |
Per-asset-class details · select a row to expand
1 China & Hong Kong Equities MCHI · Median fair value 112 Valuation +1.4 Cheap Fair-value gap +12.0% vs market 100 Expected edge +5.0% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 85% high
VALUATION LENS
China & Hong Kong Equities is cheap
M Market 100
F Fair 112
P25–P75 99–128
MCHI China Broad Market
Last 55.23 · 2026-08-28
equity_fair_value_distribution_v3.0
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · MCHI
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
Fair-value distribution
P0580.6
P1087.2
P2598.8
Median112.0
Mean113.6
P75127.8
P90141.7
P95149.7
Market = 100. Fair-value index is normalized to today's market price and is not a price target.
Forward return range
1 year+9.0%
P10 -13.3% · P25 -2.9% · P75 +22.8% · P90 +35.0%
3Y annualized+8.5%
P10 -2.6% · P25 +2.6% · P75 +15.1% · P90 +20.9%
Expected-return scenarios are separate from today's fair-value estimate.
Historical return context
Long-run Treasury-beat base rate56%
Raw observations173
Effective sample19.9
History2011-03-31 → 2025-07-31
This is the benchmark's unconditional historical base rate, not a probability for today's valuation setup.
Key valuation metrics
Fair-value drivers
- MSCI China’s forward P/E and price/book remain low relative to developed-market benchmarks in the current cross-section.
- Dividend yield and low starting multiples provide valuation support if earnings stabilize.
Representative fair-value scenarios
Downside valuation87
Adverse growth/discount-rate or asset-specific assumptions with limited valuation support.
Model weight 10%
Conservative fundamental99
Conservative current-fundamental valuation with partial normalization and elevated required returns.
Model weight 20%
Central estimate112
Central today-equivalent fair-value estimate using current fundamentals and current discount-rate conditions.
Model weight 40%
Relative-value case128
More favorable peer/normalization assumptions while retaining current economic constraints.
Model weight 20%
Upside valuation142
Favorable growth, discount-rate or asset-specific economics within the modeled scenario range.
Model weight 10%
Valuation instruments
Only symbols with actual symbol-level valuation outputs are shown. Reference-only context symbols are omitted.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCHIChina Broad Market | direct | 55.23 | 112 | +1.4 · Cheap | +9.0% |
| FXIChina Large-Cap | proxy | 35.51 | 112 | +1.4 · Cheap | +9.0% |
| KWEBChina Internet Sector | proxy | 26.32 | 112 | +1.4 · Cheap | +9.0% |
| ASHRChina A-Shares | proxy | 34.29 | 112 | +1.4 · Cheap | +9.0% |
| CQQQChina Technology Sector | proxy | 48.94 | 112 | +1.4 · Cheap | +9.0% |
| CHIQChina Consumer Sector | proxy | 17.48 | 112 | +1.4 · Cheap | +9.0% |
| EWHHong Kong Broad Market | proxy | 22.94 | 112 | +1.4 · Cheap | +9.0% |
| 2800.HKHang Seng Index Tracker | proxy | 26.14 | 112 | +1.4 · Cheap | +9.0% |
| 3033.HKHang Seng Technology Index | proxy | 4.532 | 112 | +1.4 · Cheap | +9.0% |
| 3110.HKHong Kong High-Dividend Equity | proxy | 31.64 | 112 | +1.4 · Cheap | +9.0% |
Method & data quality
Weighted current MSCI China forward-multiple, book-value, dividend-yield, discount-rate, and conservative normalization scenarios with wide policy/property-risk dispersion.
Limitations: MSCI valuation ratios are point-in-time July 31, 2026 data rather than an August 28 historical-vintage valuation series.
Sources: MSCI
2 Emerging Markets Equities EMXC · Median fair value 108 Valuation +1.0 Somewhat cheap Fair-value gap +8.0% vs market 100 Expected edge +4.5% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 85% high
VALUATION LENS
Emerging Markets Equities is somewhat cheap
M Market 100
F Fair 108
P25–P75 96–122
EMXC Emerging Markets Ex-China
Last 98.15 · 2026-08-28
equity_fair_value_distribution_v3.0
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · EMXC
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
Fair-value distribution
P0579.7
P1085.7
P2596.1
Median108.0
Mean109.2
P75121.8
P90134.0
P95141.0
Market = 100. Fair-value index is normalized to today's market price and is not a price target.
Forward return range
1 year+8.5%
P10 -13.8% · P25 -3.4% · P75 +22.3% · P90 +34.5%
3Y annualized+8.0%
P10 -3.1% · P25 +2.1% · P75 +14.6% · P90 +20.4%
Expected-return scenarios are separate from today's fair-value estimate.
Historical return context
Long-run Treasury-beat base rate64%
Raw observations245
Effective sample30.7
History2005-03-31 → 2025-07-31
This is the benchmark's unconditional historical base rate, not a probability for today's valuation setup.
Key valuation metrics
Fair-value drivers
- MSCI EM ex-China’s 10.19x forward P/E provides a sizable starting earnings yield.
- Country diversification and a moderate dividend yield support value if earnings and currencies remain resilient.
Representative fair-value scenarios
Downside valuation86
Adverse growth/discount-rate or asset-specific assumptions with limited valuation support.
Model weight 10%
Conservative fundamental96
Conservative current-fundamental valuation with partial normalization and elevated required returns.
Model weight 20%
Central estimate108
Central today-equivalent fair-value estimate using current fundamentals and current discount-rate conditions.
Model weight 40%
Relative-value case122
More favorable peer/normalization assumptions while retaining current economic constraints.
Model weight 20%
Upside valuation134
Favorable growth, discount-rate or asset-specific economics within the modeled scenario range.
Model weight 10%
Valuation instruments
Only symbols with actual symbol-level valuation outputs are shown. Reference-only context symbols are omitted.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VWOEmerging Markets Broad Index | reference only | 60.79 | 108 | +1.0 · Somewhat cheap | +8.5% |
| EMXCEmerging Markets Ex-China | direct | 98.15 | 108 | +1.0 · Somewhat cheap | +8.5% |
| INDAIndia Index | proxy | 49.56 | 108 | +1.0 · Somewhat cheap | +8.5% |
| EWZBrazil Index | proxy | 35.55 | 108 | +1.0 · Somewhat cheap | +8.5% |
| EWTTaiwan Index | proxy | 107.90 | 108 | +1.0 · Somewhat cheap | +8.5% |
| EWYSouth Korea Index | proxy | 180.20 | 108 | +1.0 · Somewhat cheap | +8.5% |
| EZASouth Africa Index | proxy | 70.72 | 108 | +1.0 · Somewhat cheap | +8.5% |
Method & data quality
Weighted MSCI EM ex-China forward-multiple, dividend-yield, discount-rate, and cross-country normalization scenarios with wider currency/country-risk dispersion.
Limitations: MSCI valuation ratios are point-in-time July 31, 2026 data rather than an August 28 historical-vintage valuation series.; EMXC is used as the representative price benchmark, while upstream return calibration uses VWO as an explicitly designated proxy.
Sources: MSCI
3 Fixed Income BND · Median fair value 102 Valuation +0.9 Somewhat cheap Fair-value gap +2.0% vs market 100 Expected edge +0.9% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 94% high
VALUATION LENS
Fixed Income is somewhat cheap
M Market 100
F Fair 102
P25–P75 99–105
BND US Broad Bond Market
Last 72.31 · 2026-08-28
fixed_income_fair_value_distribution_v3.0
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · BND
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
Fair-value distribution
P0593.8
P1095.6
P2598.6
Median102.0
Mean101.8
P75105.2
P90107.9
P95109.5
Market = 100. Fair-value index is normalized to today's market price and is not a price target.
Forward return range
1 year+4.9%
P10 +1.2% · P25 +2.9% · P75 +7.0% · P90 +8.9%
3Y annualized+4.7%
P10 +2.2% · P25 +3.4% · P75 +6.0% · P90 +7.2%
Expected-return scenarios are separate from today's fair-value estimate.
Historical return context
Long-run Treasury-beat base rate65%
Raw observations220
Effective sample20.8
History2007-04-30 → 2025-07-31
This is the benchmark's unconditional historical base rate, not a probability for today's valuation setup.
Key valuation metrics
1Y Treasury
4.04 %
Current investment-basis hurdle
IG option-adjusted spread
0.79 %
5Y percentile 20.5
Fair-value drivers
- BND’s roughly 4.9% portfolio yield provides carry above the 4.04% one-year Treasury hurdle.
- Intermediate duration creates price upside in lower-yield scenarios while current yield limits reliance on price appreciation.
Representative fair-value scenarios
Downside valuation96
Adverse growth/discount-rate or asset-specific assumptions with limited valuation support.
Model weight 10%
Conservative fundamental99
Conservative current-fundamental valuation with partial normalization and elevated required returns.
Model weight 20%
Central estimate102
Central today-equivalent fair-value estimate using current fundamentals and current discount-rate conditions.
Model weight 40%
Relative-value case105
More favorable peer/normalization assumptions while retaining current economic constraints.
Model weight 20%
Upside valuation108
Favorable growth, discount-rate or asset-specific economics within the modeled scenario range.
Model weight 10%
Valuation instruments
Only symbols with actual symbol-level valuation outputs are shown. Reference-only context symbols are omitted.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BNDUS Broad Bond Market | direct | 72.31 | 102 | +0.9 · Somewhat cheap | +4.9% |
| TLTLong-Term US Treasuries | proxy | 82.88 | 102 | +0.9 · Somewhat cheap | +4.9% |
| IEFIntermediate US Treasuries | proxy | 92.85 | 102 | +0.9 · Somewhat cheap | +4.9% |
| SHYShort-Term US Treasuries | proxy | 81.89 | 102 | +0.9 · Somewhat cheap | +4.9% |
| TIPInflation-Protected Treasuries | proxy | 106.94 | 102 | +0.9 · Somewhat cheap | +4.9% |
| LQDInvestment-Grade Corporate Bonds | proxy | 106.35 | 102 | +0.9 · Somewhat cheap | +4.9% |
| HYGHigh-Yield Corporate Bonds | proxy | 79.74 | 102 | +0.9 · Somewhat cheap | +4.9% |
Method & data quality
Yield/spread scenarios using BND yield-to-maturity/yield-to-worst, duration, the current Treasury curve, and credit-spread conditions; carry is modeled separately from current fair value.
Limitations: BND portfolio yield/duration data are current through August 25, 2026; MacroStats Treasury and spread inputs are through August 27.
Sources: Vanguard
4 Europe Equities VGK · Median fair value 104 Valuation +0.6 Somewhat cheap Fair-value gap +4.0% vs market 100 Expected edge +3.5% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 88% high
VALUATION LENS
Europe Equities is somewhat cheap
M Market 100
F Fair 104
P25–P75 95–114
VGK Europe Broad Market
Last 91.98 · 2026-08-28
equity_fair_value_distribution_v3.0
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · VGK
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
Fair-value distribution
P0582.0
P1086.7
P2594.8
Median104.0
Mean104.4
P75113.9
P90122.6
P95127.6
Market = 100. Fair-value index is normalized to today's market price and is not a price target.
Forward return range
1 year+7.5%
P10 -9.8% · P25 -1.7% · P75 +17.4% · P90 +26.1%
3Y annualized+7.0%
P10 -1.0% · P25 +2.7% · P75 +11.6% · P90 +15.7%
Expected-return scenarios are separate from today's fair-value estimate.
Historical return context
Long-run Treasury-beat base rate62%
Raw observations245
Effective sample27.2
History2005-03-31 → 2025-07-31
This is the benchmark's unconditional historical base rate, not a probability for today's valuation setup.
Key valuation metrics
Fair-value drivers
- MSCI Europe’s 14.99x forward P/E remains materially below U.S. large-cap forward valuation.
- A 2.80% dividend yield improves the carry component of prospective total return.
Representative fair-value scenarios
Downside valuation87
Adverse growth/discount-rate or asset-specific assumptions with limited valuation support.
Model weight 10%
Conservative fundamental95
Conservative current-fundamental valuation with partial normalization and elevated required returns.
Model weight 20%
Central estimate104
Central today-equivalent fair-value estimate using current fundamentals and current discount-rate conditions.
Model weight 40%
Relative-value case114
More favorable peer/normalization assumptions while retaining current economic constraints.
Model weight 20%
Upside valuation123
Favorable growth, discount-rate or asset-specific economics within the modeled scenario range.
Model weight 10%
Valuation instruments
Only symbols with actual symbol-level valuation outputs are shown. Reference-only context symbols are omitted.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGKEurope Broad Market | direct | 91.98 | 104 | +0.6 · Somewhat cheap | +7.5% |
| EZUEurozone Equity Index | proxy | 70.84 | 104 | +0.6 · Somewhat cheap | +7.5% |
| EWUUnited Kingdom Index | proxy | 48.55 | 104 | +0.6 · Somewhat cheap | +7.5% |
| EWGGermany Index | proxy | 44.59 | 104 | +0.6 · Somewhat cheap | +7.5% |
| EWQFrance Index | proxy | 46.20 | 104 | +0.6 · Somewhat cheap | +7.5% |
| EWLSwitzerland Index | proxy | 63.31 | 104 | +0.6 · Somewhat cheap | +7.5% |
Method & data quality
Weighted MSCI Europe forward-multiple, dividend-yield, discount-rate, and partial-normalization scenarios emphasizing current earnings valuation and income support.
Limitations: MSCI valuation ratios are point-in-time July 31, 2026 data rather than an August 28 historical-vintage valuation series.
Sources: MSCI
5 Crypto BTC-USD · Median fair value 105 Valuation +0.3 Fair Fair-value gap +5.0% vs market 100 Expected edge +6.0% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 66% moderate-high
VALUATION LENS
Crypto is fair
M Market 100
F Fair 105
P25–P75 77–145
BTC-USD Bitcoin
Last 77,407.82 · 2026-08-28
crypto_fair_value_distribution_v3.0
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · BTC-USD
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
Fair-value distribution
P0539.0
P1053.0
P2577.3
Median105.0
Mean112.1
P75144.6
P90179.3
P95199.2
Market = 100. Fair-value index is normalized to today's market price and is not a price target.
Forward return range
1 year+10.0%
P10 -42.0% · P25 -17.7% · P75 +46.3% · P90 +78.1%
3Y annualized+12.0%
P10 -12.8% · P25 -1.2% · P75 +30.5% · P90 +46.7%
Expected-return scenarios are separate from today's fair-value estimate.
Key valuation metrics
Fair-value drivers
- Bitcoin’s MVRV is above 1 but well below extreme historical cycle peaks, leaving a broad range of defensible network-value scenarios.
- Current market value remains meaningfully above realized value, but realized-value growth can support the network anchor over time.
Representative fair-value scenarios
Downside valuation53
Adverse growth/discount-rate or asset-specific assumptions with limited valuation support.
Model weight 10%
Conservative fundamental77
Conservative current-fundamental valuation with partial normalization and elevated required returns.
Model weight 20%
Central estimate105
Central today-equivalent fair-value estimate using current fundamentals and current discount-rate conditions.
Model weight 40%
Relative-value case145
More favorable peer/normalization assumptions while retaining current economic constraints.
Model weight 20%
Upside valuation179
Favorable growth, discount-rate or asset-specific economics within the modeled scenario range.
Model weight 10%
Valuation instruments
Only symbols with actual symbol-level valuation outputs are shown. Reference-only context symbols are omitted.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC-USDBitcoin | direct | 77,407.82 | 105 | +0.3 · Fair | +10.0% |
| ETH-USDEthereum | proxy | 2,428.71 | 105 | +0.3 · Fair | +10.0% |
| SOL-USDSolana | proxy | 103.99 | 105 | +0.3 · Fair | +10.0% |
| XRP-USDXRP | proxy | 1.382 | 105 | +0.3 · Fair | +10.0% |
| BNB-USDBNB | proxy | 689.03 | 105 | +0.3 · Fair | +10.0% |
| ADA-USDCardano | proxy | 0.20195 | 105 | +0.3 · Fair | +10.0% |
Method & data quality
Wide network-valuation scenarios using Bitcoin MVRV/realized-value anchors, current liquidity opportunity cost, and conservative adoption/liquidity ranges; no universally accepted intrinsic-value model is assumed.
Limitations: Bitcoin MVRV is a network cost-basis anchor, not a universally accepted intrinsic-value measure; fair-value dispersion is intentionally wide.; Upstream return calibration does not have enough completed history to publish even an unconditional base rate for Crypto.
Sources: Glassnode
6 Japan Equities EWJ · Median fair value 101 Valuation +0.2 Fair Fair-value gap +1.0% vs market 100 Expected edge +2.5% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 87% high
VALUATION LENS
Japan Equities is fair
M Market 100
F Fair 101
P25–P75 92–111
EWJ Japan Broad Market
Last 95.87 · 2026-08-28
equity_fair_value_distribution_v3.0
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · EWJ
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
Fair-value distribution
P0579.0
P1083.7
P2591.8
Median101.0
Mean101.4
P75110.9
P90119.6
P95124.6
Market = 100. Fair-value index is normalized to today's market price and is not a price target.
Forward return range
1 year+6.5%
P10 -10.8% · P25 -2.7% · P75 +16.4% · P90 +25.1%
3Y annualized+7.0%
P10 -1.0% · P25 +2.7% · P75 +11.6% · P90 +15.7%
Expected-return scenarios are separate from today's fair-value estimate.
Historical return context
Long-run Treasury-beat base rate57%
Raw observations352
Effective sample37.7
History1996-04-30 → 2025-07-31
This is the benchmark's unconditional historical base rate, not a probability for today's valuation setup.
Key valuation metrics
Fair-value drivers
- Forward valuation is closer to a defensible mid-cycle range than U.S. large caps.
- Positive earnings economics and shareholder distributions support current value despite a higher global discount-rate hurdle.
Representative fair-value scenarios
Downside valuation84
Adverse growth/discount-rate or asset-specific assumptions with limited valuation support.
Model weight 10%
Conservative fundamental92
Conservative current-fundamental valuation with partial normalization and elevated required returns.
Model weight 20%
Central estimate101
Central today-equivalent fair-value estimate using current fundamentals and current discount-rate conditions.
Model weight 40%
Relative-value case111
More favorable peer/normalization assumptions while retaining current economic constraints.
Model weight 20%
Upside valuation120
Favorable growth, discount-rate or asset-specific economics within the modeled scenario range.
Model weight 10%
Valuation instruments
Only symbols with actual symbol-level valuation outputs are shown. Reference-only context symbols are omitted.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EWJJapan Broad Market | direct | 95.87 | 101 | +0.2 · Fair | +6.5% |
| DXJJapan Hedged Equity | proxy | 180.10 | 101 | +0.2 · Fair | +6.5% |
| SCJJapan Small-Cap Equity | proxy | 109.13 | 101 | +0.2 · Fair | +6.5% |
| EWJVJapan Value Equity | proxy | 47.65 | 101 | +0.2 · Fair | +6.5% |
| JPXNJapan JPX-Nikkei 400 | proxy | 102.78 | 101 | +0.2 · Fair | +6.5% |
Method & data quality
Weighted MSCI Japan forward-multiple, book-value, dividend-yield, discount-rate, and partial-normalization scenarios reflecting improving corporate economics but higher domestic/global rate hurdles.
Limitations: MSCI valuation ratios are point-in-time July 31, 2026 data rather than an August 28 historical-vintage valuation series.
Sources: MSCI
7 Metals GLD · Median fair value 98 Valuation -0.2 Fair Fair-value gap -2.0% vs market 100 Expected edge +0.5% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 82% high
VALUATION LENS
Metals is fair
M Market 100
F Fair 98
P25–P75 85–114
GLD Gold
Last 408.89 · 2026-08-28
metal_fair_value_distribution_v3.0
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · GLD
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
Fair-value distribution
P0566.6
P1073.2
P2584.8
Median98.0
Mean99.6
P75113.8
P90127.7
P95135.7
Market = 100. Fair-value index is normalized to today's market price and is not a price target.
Forward return range
1 year+4.5%
P10 -20.3% · P25 -8.7% · P75 +19.7% · P90 +33.0%
3Y annualized+4.5%
P10 -6.6% · P25 -1.4% · P75 +11.1% · P90 +16.9%
Expected-return scenarios are separate from today's fair-value estimate.
Historical return context
Long-run Treasury-beat base rate66%
Raw observations249
Effective sample28.0
History2004-11-30 → 2025-07-31
This is the benchmark's unconditional historical base rate, not a probability for today's valuation setup.
Key valuation metrics
10Y real Treasury yield
2.34 %
Current real opportunity-cost anchor
Fair-value drivers
- Central-bank gold purchases rebounded sharply in Q2 and remain a structural source of demand.
- World Gold Council expects investment and reserve-diversification demand to remain important through the second half.
Fair-value risks
- A 2.34% real 10-year Treasury yield is a significant opportunity-cost headwind for non-yielding metals.
- High gold prices are suppressing jewellery volumes, and Q2 gold ETF demand was negative.
Representative fair-value scenarios
Downside valuation73
Adverse growth/discount-rate or asset-specific assumptions with limited valuation support.
Model weight 10%
Conservative fundamental85
Conservative current-fundamental valuation with partial normalization and elevated required returns.
Model weight 20%
Central estimate98
Central today-equivalent fair-value estimate using current fundamentals and current discount-rate conditions.
Model weight 40%
Relative-value case114
More favorable peer/normalization assumptions while retaining current economic constraints.
Model weight 20%
Upside valuation128
Favorable growth, discount-rate or asset-specific economics within the modeled scenario range.
Model weight 10%
Valuation instruments
Only symbols with actual symbol-level valuation outputs are shown. Reference-only context symbols are omitted.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GLDGold | direct | 408.89 | 98 | -0.2 · Fair | +4.5% |
| SLVSilver | proxy | 60.02 | 98 | -0.2 · Fair | +4.5% |
| PPLTPlatinum | proxy | 16.49 | 98 | -0.2 · Fair | +4.5% |
| CPERCopper | proxy | 39.67 | 98 | -0.2 · Fair | +4.5% |
| DBBBase Metals | proxy | 25.48 | 98 | -0.2 · Fair | +4.5% |
| GDXGold Miners | proxy | 99.65 | 98 | -0.2 · Fair | +4.5% |
| PICKGlobal Metals and Mining | proxy | 65.76 | 98 | -0.2 · Fair | +4.5% |
Method & data quality
Gold-led real-asset scenarios combining current real yields, World Gold Council demand/supply data, central-bank demand, ETF flows, and broad precious/base-metal uncertainty.
Limitations: Gold is the representative benchmark; silver, platinum, base metals and mining equities are retained as asset-class proxies rather than independently valued securities.
Sources: World Gold Council
8 Real Estate VNQ · Median fair value 98 Valuation -0.3 Fair Fair-value gap -2.0% vs market 100 Expected edge +1.5% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 84% high
VALUATION LENS
Real Estate is fair
M Market 100
F Fair 98
P25–P75 89–109
VNQ US Real Estate
Last 97.24 · 2026-08-28
reit_fair_value_distribution_v3.0
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · VNQ
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
Fair-value distribution
P0576.0
P1080.7
P2588.8
Median98.0
Mean98.8
P75108.6
P90117.8
P95123.1
Market = 100. Fair-value index is normalized to today's market price and is not a price target.
Forward return range
1 year+5.5%
P10 -13.1% · P25 -4.4% · P75 +16.7% · P90 +26.5%
3Y annualized+6.5%
P10 -2.8% · P25 +1.6% · P75 +11.8% · P90 +16.4%
Expected-return scenarios are separate from today's fair-value estimate.
Historical return context
Long-run Treasury-beat base rate68%
Raw observations251
Effective sample26.0
History2004-09-30 → 2025-07-31
This is the benchmark's unconditional historical base rate, not a probability for today's valuation setup.
Key valuation metrics
Fair-value drivers
- VNQ’s reported earnings growth provides an economic offset to a high headline P/E.
- Income-producing real assets can retain value if rent/cash-flow growth remains durable and long yields stabilize.
Representative fair-value scenarios
Downside valuation81
Adverse growth/discount-rate or asset-specific assumptions with limited valuation support.
Model weight 10%
Conservative fundamental89
Conservative current-fundamental valuation with partial normalization and elevated required returns.
Model weight 20%
Central estimate98
Central today-equivalent fair-value estimate using current fundamentals and current discount-rate conditions.
Model weight 40%
Relative-value case109
More favorable peer/normalization assumptions while retaining current economic constraints.
Model weight 20%
Upside valuation118
Favorable growth, discount-rate or asset-specific economics within the modeled scenario range.
Model weight 10%
Valuation instruments
Only symbols with actual symbol-level valuation outputs are shown. Reference-only context symbols are omitted.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VNQUS Real Estate | direct | 97.24 | 98 | -0.3 · Fair | +5.5% |
| XLREUS Real Estate Sector | proxy | 44.48 | 98 | -0.3 · Fair | +5.5% |
| REETGlobal Real Estate | proxy | 27.68 | 98 | -0.3 · Fair | +5.5% |
| REMMortgage Real Estate | proxy | 21.78 | 98 | -0.3 · Fair | +5.5% |
| SRVRData Center and Digital REITs | proxy | 31.22 | 98 | -0.3 · Fair | +5.5% |
| REZResidential and Specialized REITs | proxy | 94.64 | 98 | -0.3 · Fair | +5.5% |
Method & data quality
REIT scenarios using VNQ earnings-growth and valuation data, rate sensitivity, and partial normalization; lack of standardized current AFFO/NAV data widens the distribution and lowers model reliability.
Limitations: A strong standardized current AFFO/NAV dataset was not available from the primary fund source; the distribution is therefore wider than an AFFO/NAV-led REIT model.
Sources: Vanguard
9 Developed Pacific Equities EWA · Median fair value 97 Valuation -0.4 Somewhat expensive Fair-value gap -3.0% vs market 100 Expected edge +1.5% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 84% high
VALUATION LENS
Developed Pacific Equities is somewhat expensive
M Market 100
F Fair 97
P25–P75 87–108
EWA Australia Broad Market
Last 30.00 · 2026-08-28
equity_fair_value_distribution_v3.0
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · EWA
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
Fair-value distribution
P0573.4
P1078.4
P2587.1
Median97.0
Mean97.4
P75107.6
P90116.8
P95122.1
Market = 100. Fair-value index is normalized to today's market price and is not a price target.
Forward return range
1 year+5.5%
P10 -11.8% · P25 -3.7% · P75 +15.4% · P90 +24.1%
3Y annualized+6.0%
P10 -2.0% · P25 +1.7% · P75 +10.6% · P90 +14.7%
Expected-return scenarios are separate from today's fair-value estimate.
Historical return context
Long-run Treasury-beat base rate63%
Raw observations352
Effective sample44.3
History1996-04-30 → 2025-07-31
This is the benchmark's unconditional historical base rate, not a probability for today's valuation setup.
Key valuation metrics
Fair-value drivers
- A 3.24% dividend yield provides meaningful income support relative to other developed equity regions.
- Forward valuation remains below U.S. large-cap levels, limiting the degree of modeled overvaluation.
Representative fair-value scenarios
Downside valuation78
Adverse growth/discount-rate or asset-specific assumptions with limited valuation support.
Model weight 10%
Conservative fundamental87
Conservative current-fundamental valuation with partial normalization and elevated required returns.
Model weight 20%
Central estimate97
Central today-equivalent fair-value estimate using current fundamentals and current discount-rate conditions.
Model weight 40%
Relative-value case108
More favorable peer/normalization assumptions while retaining current economic constraints.
Model weight 20%
Upside valuation117
Favorable growth, discount-rate or asset-specific economics within the modeled scenario range.
Model weight 10%
Valuation instruments
Only symbols with actual symbol-level valuation outputs are shown. Reference-only context symbols are omitted.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EWAAustralia Broad Market | direct | 30.00 | 97 | -0.4 · Somewhat expensive | +5.5% |
| EWSSingapore Broad Market | proxy | 33.93 | 97 | -0.4 · Somewhat expensive | +5.5% |
| ENZLNew Zealand Broad Market | proxy | 47.68 | 97 | -0.4 · Somewhat expensive | +5.5% |
Method & data quality
Weighted Pacific ex-Japan forward-multiple, dividend-yield, discount-rate, and regional-comparability scenarios; EWA is used only as the current price anchor.
Limitations: MSCI valuation ratios are point-in-time July 31, 2026 data rather than an August 28 historical-vintage valuation series.; EWA is used as the representative price benchmark although the valuation evidence is for the broader MSCI Pacific ex Japan region.
Sources: MSCI
10 Energy USO · Median fair value 92 Valuation -0.6 Somewhat expensive Fair-value gap -8.0% vs market 100 Expected edge -0.5% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 83% high
VALUATION LENS
Energy is somewhat expensive
M Market 100
F Fair 92
P25–P75 78–110
USO US Crude Oil
Last 129.70 · 2026-08-28
energy_fair_value_distribution_v3.0
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · USO
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
Fair-value distribution
P0557.5
P1064.8
P2577.5
Median92.0
Mean94.0
P75109.8
P90125.4
P95134.4
Market = 100. Fair-value index is normalized to today's market price and is not a price target.
Forward return range
1 year+3.5%
P10 -23.7% · P25 -11.0% · P75 +20.0% · P90 +34.5%
3Y annualized+5.0%
P10 -7.4% · P25 -1.6% · P75 +12.3% · P90 +18.6%
Expected-return scenarios are separate from today's fair-value estimate.
Historical return context
Long-run Treasury-beat base rate44%
Raw observations232
Effective sample44.8
History2006-04-30 → 2025-07-31
This is the benchmark's unconditional historical base rate, not a probability for today's valuation setup.
Key valuation metrics
10Y real Treasury yield
2.34 %
Current real opportunity-cost anchor
Fair-value drivers
- EIA expects near-term Brent prices to remain elevated because of constrained Hormuz transit and lower inventories.
- Below-five-year-low U.S. crude inventories support current commodity economics in the near term.
Fair-value risks
- EIA expects Brent to fall toward about $69/b in 2027 as production recovers and inventories rebuild.
- USO’s futures roll and contract mix mean spot-price fair-value scenarios do not map one-for-one to ETF NAV.
Representative fair-value scenarios
Downside valuation65
Adverse growth/discount-rate or asset-specific assumptions with limited valuation support.
Model weight 10%
Conservative fundamental78
Conservative current-fundamental valuation with partial normalization and elevated required returns.
Model weight 20%
Central estimate92
Central today-equivalent fair-value estimate using current fundamentals and current discount-rate conditions.
Model weight 40%
Relative-value case110
More favorable peer/normalization assumptions while retaining current economic constraints.
Model weight 20%
Upside valuation125
Favorable growth, discount-rate or asset-specific economics within the modeled scenario range.
Model weight 10%
Valuation instruments
Only symbols with actual symbol-level valuation outputs are shown. Reference-only context symbols are omitted.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USOUS Crude Oil | direct | 129.70 | 92 | -0.6 · Somewhat expensive | +3.5% |
| BNOBrent Crude Oil | proxy | 51.48 | 92 | -0.6 · Somewhat expensive | +3.5% |
| UNGNatural Gas | proxy | 10.33 | 92 | -0.6 · Somewhat expensive | +3.5% |
| XLEUS Energy Sector | proxy | 62.68 | 92 | -0.6 · Somewhat expensive | +3.5% |
| XOPOil and Gas Producers | proxy | 185.94 | 92 | -0.6 · Somewhat expensive | +3.5% |
Method & data quality
Commodity and producer-value scenarios anchored to EIA August oil/gas forecasts, current supply constraints, normalization risk, and current discount rates; USO roll structure is treated as a benchmark-basis limitation.
Limitations: USO futures-roll mechanics prevent a one-for-one mapping from EIA spot-price forecasts to ETF NAV.
11 US Equities SPY · Median fair value 92 Valuation -1.5 Expensive Fair-value gap -8.0% vs market 100 Expected edge +1.0% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 90% high
VALUATION LENS
US Equities is expensive
M Market 100
F Fair 92
P25–P75 83–100
SPY US Large-Cap Index
Last 769.35 · 2026-08-28
equity_fair_value_distribution_v3.0
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · SPY
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
Fair-value distribution
P0570.8
P1075.3
P2583.1
Median92.0
Mean91.4
P7599.9
P90106.9
P95110.8
Market = 100. Fair-value index is normalized to today's market price and is not a price target.
Forward return range
1 year+5.0%
P10 -11.1% · P25 -3.6% · P75 +14.2% · P90 +22.3%
3Y annualized+6.0%
P10 -1.4% · P25 +2.0% · P75 +10.3% · P90 +14.0%
Expected-return scenarios are separate from today's fair-value estimate.
Historical return context
Long-run Treasury-beat base rate80%
Raw observations391
Effective sample31.0
History1993-01-31 → 2025-07-31
This is the benchmark's unconditional historical base rate, not a probability for today's valuation setup.
Key valuation metrics
Shiller CAPE
41.2 x
30Y percentile 95.0
10Y real Treasury yield
2.34 %
5Y percentile 96.2
Fair-value drivers
- Strong forecast 3–5 year EPS growth supports a higher justified multiple than a static historical-average comparison would imply.
- Broad U.S. corporate earnings remain a substantial economic-value anchor even as current multiples are elevated.
Fair-value risks
- SPY’s 21.32x FY1 P/E and 41.18x Shiller CAPE leave less valuation margin if earnings growth disappoints.
- A 2.34% 10-year real Treasury yield raises the opportunity cost and discount rate for long-duration equity cash flows.
Representative fair-value scenarios
Downside valuation75
Adverse growth/discount-rate or asset-specific assumptions with limited valuation support.
Model weight 10%
Conservative fundamental83
Conservative current-fundamental valuation with partial normalization and elevated required returns.
Model weight 20%
Central estimate92
Central today-equivalent fair-value estimate using current fundamentals and current discount-rate conditions.
Model weight 40%
Relative-value case100
More favorable peer/normalization assumptions while retaining current economic constraints.
Model weight 20%
Upside valuation107
Favorable growth, discount-rate or asset-specific economics within the modeled scenario range.
Model weight 10%
Valuation instruments
Only symbols with actual symbol-level valuation outputs are shown. Reference-only context symbols are omitted.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPYUS Large-Cap Index | direct | 769.35 | 92 | -1.5 · Expensive | +5.0% |
| QQQUS Technology Index | proxy | 716.43 | 92 | -1.5 · Expensive | +5.0% |
| DIAUS Blue-Chip Index | proxy | 535.06 | 92 | -1.5 · Expensive | +5.0% |
| IWMUS Small-Cap Index | proxy | 295.75 | 92 | -1.5 · Expensive | +5.0% |
| RSPUS Equal-Weight Index | proxy | 220.69 | 92 | -1.5 · Expensive | +5.0% |
| XLFUS Financial Sector | proxy | 58.10 | 92 | -1.5 · Expensive | +5.0% |
| XLIUS Industrial Sector | proxy | 177.14 | 92 | -1.5 · Expensive | +5.0% |
| XLVUS Healthcare Sector | proxy | 171.16 | 92 | -1.5 · Expensive | +5.0% |
| XLYUS Consumer Discretionary Sector | proxy | 117.21 | 92 | -1.5 · Expensive | +5.0% |
| SMHUS Semiconductor Sector | proxy | 553.11 | 92 | -1.5 · Expensive | +5.0% |
Method & data quality
Weighted current-fundamental, forward-multiple, Shiller long-history, and discount-rate-adjusted scenarios; current SPY FY1 P/E and long-run CAPE are treated as separate correlated anchors.
Limitations: SPY forward characteristics are current through August 25, while Shiller CAPE is August-month data with earnings inputs lagging to March 2026.; Shiller history is from the current/revised workbook filtered to the requested date, not a true publication-vintage reconstruction.
Sources: State Street Global Advisors
Valuation instruments 72
Only instruments with usable valuation outputs are shown. Reference-only context symbols are omitted.
2800.HK
proxy
Hang Seng Index Tracker
China & Hong Kong Equities
Last 26.14
Fair 112
Val. +1.4
1Y +9.0%
Hang Seng Index Tracker is retained as an asset-class proxy. The fair-value index and expected-return fields mirror the China & Hong Kong Equities class model rather than a security-specific valuation.
3033.HK
proxy
Hang Seng Technology Index
China & Hong Kong Equities
Last 4.532
Fair 112
Val. +1.4
1Y +9.0%
Hang Seng Technology Index is retained as an asset-class proxy. The fair-value index and expected-return fields mirror the China & Hong Kong Equities class model rather than a security-specific valuation.
3110.HK
proxy
Hong Kong High-Dividend Equity
China & Hong Kong Equities
Last 31.64
Fair 112
Val. +1.4
1Y +9.0%
Hong Kong High-Dividend Equity is retained as an asset-class proxy. The fair-value index and expected-return fields mirror the China & Hong Kong Equities class model rather than a security-specific valuation.
ADA-USD
proxy
Cardano
Crypto
Last 0.20195
Fair 105
Val. +0.3
1Y +10.0%
Cardano is retained as an asset-class proxy. The fair-value index and expected-return fields mirror the Crypto class model rather than a security-specific valuation.
ASHR
proxy
China A-Shares
China & Hong Kong Equities
Last 34.29
Fair 112
Val. +1.4
1Y +9.0%
China A-Shares is retained as an asset-class proxy. The fair-value index and expected-return fields mirror the China & Hong Kong Equities class model rather than a security-specific valuation.
BNB-USD
proxy
BNB
Crypto
Last 689.03
Fair 105
Val. +0.3
1Y +10.0%
BNB is retained as an asset-class proxy. The fair-value index and expected-return fields mirror the Crypto class model rather than a security-specific valuation.
BND
direct
US Broad Bond Market
Fixed Income
Last 72.31
Fair 102
Val. +0.9
1Y +4.9%
US Broad Bond Market is the representative market-price anchor for Fixed Income. The asset-class model places median current economic value at index 102.0 versus market 100; this is a fair-value estimate, not a price target.
BNO
proxy
Brent Crude Oil
Energy
Last 51.48
Fair 92
Val. -0.6
1Y +3.5%
Brent Crude Oil is retained as an asset-class proxy. The fair-value index and expected-return fields mirror the Energy class model rather than a security-specific valuation.
BTC-USD
direct
Bitcoin
Crypto
Last 77,407.82
Fair 105
Val. +0.3
1Y +10.0%
Bitcoin is the representative market-price anchor for Crypto. The asset-class model places median current economic value at index 105.0 versus market 100; this is a fair-value estimate, not a price target.
CHIQ
proxy
China Consumer Sector
China & Hong Kong Equities
Last 17.48
Fair 112
Val. +1.4
1Y +9.0%
China Consumer Sector is retained as an asset-class proxy. The fair-value index and expected-return fields mirror the China & Hong Kong Equities class model rather than a security-specific valuation.
CPER
proxy
Copper
Metals
Last 39.67
Fair 98
Val. -0.2
1Y +4.5%
Copper is retained as an asset-class proxy. The fair-value index and expected-return fields mirror the Metals class model rather than a security-specific valuation.
CQQQ
proxy
China Technology Sector
China & Hong Kong Equities
Last 48.94
Fair 112
Val. +1.4
1Y +9.0%
China Technology Sector is retained as an asset-class proxy. The fair-value index and expected-return fields mirror the China & Hong Kong Equities class model rather than a security-specific valuation.
DBB
proxy
Base Metals
Metals
Last 25.48
Fair 98
Val. -0.2
1Y +4.5%
Base Metals is retained as an asset-class proxy. The fair-value index and expected-return fields mirror the Metals class model rather than a security-specific valuation.
DIA
proxy
US Blue-Chip Index
US Equities
Last 535.06
Fair 92
Val. -1.5
1Y +5.0%
US Blue-Chip Index is retained as an asset-class proxy. The fair-value index and expected-return fields mirror the US Equities class model rather than a security-specific valuation.
DXJ
proxy
Japan Hedged Equity
Japan Equities
Last 180.10
Fair 101
Val. +0.2
1Y +6.5%
Japan Hedged Equity is retained as an asset-class proxy. The fair-value index and expected-return fields mirror the Japan Equities class model rather than a security-specific valuation.
EMXC
direct
Emerging Markets Ex-China
Emerging Markets Equities
Last 98.15
Fair 108
Val. +1.0
1Y +8.5%
Emerging Markets Ex-China is the representative market-price anchor for Emerging Markets Equities. The asset-class model places median current economic value at index 108.0 versus market 100; this is a fair-value estimate, not a price target.
ENZL
proxy
New Zealand Broad Market
Developed Pacific Equities
Last 47.68
Fair 97
Val. -0.4
1Y +5.5%
New Zealand Broad Market is retained as an asset-class proxy. The fair-value index and expected-return fields mirror the Developed Pacific Equities class model rather than a security-specific valuation.
ETH-USD
proxy
Ethereum
Crypto
Last 2,428.71
Fair 105
Val. +0.3
1Y +10.0%
Ethereum is retained as an asset-class proxy. The fair-value index and expected-return fields mirror the Crypto class model rather than a security-specific valuation.
EWA
direct
Australia Broad Market
Developed Pacific Equities
Last 30.00
Fair 97
Val. -0.4
1Y +5.5%
Australia Broad Market is the representative market-price anchor for Developed Pacific Equities. The asset-class model places median current economic value at index 97.0 versus market 100; this is a fair-value estimate, not a price target.
EWG
proxy
Germany Index
Europe Equities
Last 44.59
Fair 104
Val. +0.6
1Y +7.5%
Germany Index is retained as an asset-class proxy. The fair-value index and expected-return fields mirror the Europe Equities class model rather than a security-specific valuation.
EWH
proxy
Hong Kong Broad Market
China & Hong Kong Equities
Last 22.94
Fair 112
Val. +1.4
1Y +9.0%
Hong Kong Broad Market is retained as an asset-class proxy. The fair-value index and expected-return fields mirror the China & Hong Kong Equities class model rather than a security-specific valuation.
EWJ
direct
Japan Broad Market
Japan Equities
Last 95.87
Fair 101
Val. +0.2
1Y +6.5%
Japan Broad Market is the representative market-price anchor for Japan Equities. The asset-class model places median current economic value at index 101.0 versus market 100; this is a fair-value estimate, not a price target.
EWJV
proxy
Japan Value Equity
Japan Equities
Last 47.65
Fair 101
Val. +0.2
1Y +6.5%
Japan Value Equity is retained as an asset-class proxy. The fair-value index and expected-return fields mirror the Japan Equities class model rather than a security-specific valuation.
EWL
proxy
Switzerland Index
Europe Equities
Last 63.31
Fair 104
Val. +0.6
1Y +7.5%
Switzerland Index is retained as an asset-class proxy. The fair-value index and expected-return fields mirror the Europe Equities class model rather than a security-specific valuation.
EWQ
proxy
France Index
Europe Equities
Last 46.20
Fair 104
Val. +0.6
1Y +7.5%
France Index is retained as an asset-class proxy. The fair-value index and expected-return fields mirror the Europe Equities class model rather than a security-specific valuation.
EWS
proxy
Singapore Broad Market
Developed Pacific Equities
Last 33.93
Fair 97
Val. -0.4
1Y +5.5%
Singapore Broad Market is retained as an asset-class proxy. The fair-value index and expected-return fields mirror the Developed Pacific Equities class model rather than a security-specific valuation.
EWT
proxy
Taiwan Index
Emerging Markets Equities
Last 107.90
Fair 108
Val. +1.0
1Y +8.5%
Taiwan Index is retained as an asset-class proxy. The fair-value index and expected-return fields mirror the Emerging Markets Equities class model rather than a security-specific valuation.
EWU
proxy
United Kingdom Index
Europe Equities
Last 48.55
Fair 104
Val. +0.6
1Y +7.5%
United Kingdom Index is retained as an asset-class proxy. The fair-value index and expected-return fields mirror the Europe Equities class model rather than a security-specific valuation.
EWY
proxy
South Korea Index
Emerging Markets Equities
Last 180.20
Fair 108
Val. +1.0
1Y +8.5%
South Korea Index is retained as an asset-class proxy. The fair-value index and expected-return fields mirror the Emerging Markets Equities class model rather than a security-specific valuation.
EWZ
proxy
Brazil Index
Emerging Markets Equities
Last 35.55
Fair 108
Val. +1.0
1Y +8.5%
Brazil Index is retained as an asset-class proxy. The fair-value index and expected-return fields mirror the Emerging Markets Equities class model rather than a security-specific valuation.
EZA
proxy
South Africa Index
Emerging Markets Equities
Last 70.72
Fair 108
Val. +1.0
1Y +8.5%
South Africa Index is retained as an asset-class proxy. The fair-value index and expected-return fields mirror the Emerging Markets Equities class model rather than a security-specific valuation.
EZU
proxy
Eurozone Equity Index
Europe Equities
Last 70.84
Fair 104
Val. +0.6
1Y +7.5%
Eurozone Equity Index is retained as an asset-class proxy. The fair-value index and expected-return fields mirror the Europe Equities class model rather than a security-specific valuation.
FXI
proxy
China Large-Cap
China & Hong Kong Equities
Last 35.51
Fair 112
Val. +1.4
1Y +9.0%
China Large-Cap is retained as an asset-class proxy. The fair-value index and expected-return fields mirror the China & Hong Kong Equities class model rather than a security-specific valuation.
GDX
proxy
Gold Miners
Metals
Last 99.65
Fair 98
Val. -0.2
1Y +4.5%
Gold Miners is retained as an asset-class proxy. The fair-value index and expected-return fields mirror the Metals class model rather than a security-specific valuation.
GLD
direct
Gold
Metals
Last 408.89
Fair 98
Val. -0.2
1Y +4.5%
Gold is the representative market-price anchor for Metals. The asset-class model places median current economic value at index 98.0 versus market 100; this is a fair-value estimate, not a price target.
HYG
proxy
High-Yield Corporate Bonds
Fixed Income
Last 79.74
Fair 102
Val. +0.9
1Y +4.9%
High-Yield Corporate Bonds is retained as an asset-class proxy. The fair-value index and expected-return fields mirror the Fixed Income class model rather than a security-specific valuation.
IEF
proxy
Intermediate US Treasuries
Fixed Income
Last 92.85
Fair 102
Val. +0.9
1Y +4.9%
Intermediate US Treasuries is retained as an asset-class proxy. The fair-value index and expected-return fields mirror the Fixed Income class model rather than a security-specific valuation.
INDA
proxy
India Index
Emerging Markets Equities
Last 49.56
Fair 108
Val. +1.0
1Y +8.5%
India Index is retained as an asset-class proxy. The fair-value index and expected-return fields mirror the Emerging Markets Equities class model rather than a security-specific valuation.
IWM
proxy
US Small-Cap Index
US Equities
Last 295.75
Fair 92
Val. -1.5
1Y +5.0%
US Small-Cap Index is retained as an asset-class proxy. The fair-value index and expected-return fields mirror the US Equities class model rather than a security-specific valuation.
JPXN
proxy
Japan JPX-Nikkei 400
Japan Equities
Last 102.78
Fair 101
Val. +0.2
1Y +6.5%
Japan JPX-Nikkei 400 is retained as an asset-class proxy. The fair-value index and expected-return fields mirror the Japan Equities class model rather than a security-specific valuation.
KWEB
proxy
China Internet Sector
China & Hong Kong Equities
Last 26.32
Fair 112
Val. +1.4
1Y +9.0%
China Internet Sector is retained as an asset-class proxy. The fair-value index and expected-return fields mirror the China & Hong Kong Equities class model rather than a security-specific valuation.
LQD
proxy
Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds
Fixed Income
Last 106.35
Fair 102
Val. +0.9
1Y +4.9%
Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds is retained as an asset-class proxy. The fair-value index and expected-return fields mirror the Fixed Income class model rather than a security-specific valuation.
MCHI
direct
China Broad Market
China & Hong Kong Equities
Last 55.23
Fair 112
Val. +1.4
1Y +9.0%
China Broad Market is the representative market-price anchor for China & Hong Kong Equities. The asset-class model places median current economic value at index 112.0 versus market 100; this is a fair-value estimate, not a price target.
PICK
proxy
Global Metals and Mining
Metals
Last 65.76
Fair 98
Val. -0.2
1Y +4.5%
Global Metals and Mining is retained as an asset-class proxy. The fair-value index and expected-return fields mirror the Metals class model rather than a security-specific valuation.
PPLT
proxy
Platinum
Metals
Last 16.49
Fair 98
Val. -0.2
1Y +4.5%
Platinum is retained as an asset-class proxy. The fair-value index and expected-return fields mirror the Metals class model rather than a security-specific valuation.
QQQ
proxy
US Technology Index
US Equities
Last 716.43
Fair 92
Val. -1.5
1Y +5.0%
US Technology Index is retained as an asset-class proxy. The fair-value index and expected-return fields mirror the US Equities class model rather than a security-specific valuation.
REET
proxy
Global Real Estate
Real Estate
Last 27.68
Fair 98
Val. -0.3
1Y +5.5%
Global Real Estate is retained as an asset-class proxy. The fair-value index and expected-return fields mirror the Real Estate class model rather than a security-specific valuation.
REM
proxy
Mortgage Real Estate
Real Estate
Last 21.78
Fair 98
Val. -0.3
1Y +5.5%
Mortgage Real Estate is retained as an asset-class proxy. The fair-value index and expected-return fields mirror the Real Estate class model rather than a security-specific valuation.
REZ
proxy
Residential and Specialized REITs
Real Estate
Last 94.64
Fair 98
Val. -0.3
1Y +5.5%
Residential and Specialized REITs is retained as an asset-class proxy. The fair-value index and expected-return fields mirror the Real Estate class model rather than a security-specific valuation.
RSP
proxy
US Equal-Weight Index
US Equities
Last 220.69
Fair 92
Val. -1.5
1Y +5.0%
US Equal-Weight Index is retained as an asset-class proxy. The fair-value index and expected-return fields mirror the US Equities class model rather than a security-specific valuation.
SCJ
proxy
Japan Small-Cap Equity
Japan Equities
Last 109.13
Fair 101
Val. +0.2
1Y +6.5%
Japan Small-Cap Equity is retained as an asset-class proxy. The fair-value index and expected-return fields mirror the Japan Equities class model rather than a security-specific valuation.
SHY
proxy
Short-Term US Treasuries
Fixed Income
Last 81.89
Fair 102
Val. +0.9
1Y +4.9%
Short-Term US Treasuries is retained as an asset-class proxy. The fair-value index and expected-return fields mirror the Fixed Income class model rather than a security-specific valuation.
SLV
proxy
Silver
Metals
Last 60.02
Fair 98
Val. -0.2
1Y +4.5%
Silver is retained as an asset-class proxy. The fair-value index and expected-return fields mirror the Metals class model rather than a security-specific valuation.
SMH
proxy
US Semiconductor Sector
US Equities
Last 553.11
Fair 92
Val. -1.5
1Y +5.0%
US Semiconductor Sector is retained as an asset-class proxy. The fair-value index and expected-return fields mirror the US Equities class model rather than a security-specific valuation.
SOL-USD
proxy
Solana
Crypto
Last 103.99
Fair 105
Val. +0.3
1Y +10.0%
Solana is retained as an asset-class proxy. The fair-value index and expected-return fields mirror the Crypto class model rather than a security-specific valuation.
SPY
direct
US Large-Cap Index
US Equities
Last 769.35
Fair 92
Val. -1.5
1Y +5.0%
US Large-Cap Index is the representative market-price anchor for US Equities. The asset-class model places median current economic value at index 92.0 versus market 100; this is a fair-value estimate, not a price target.
SRVR
proxy
Data Center and Digital REITs
Real Estate
Last 31.22
Fair 98
Val. -0.3
1Y +5.5%
Data Center and Digital REITs is retained as an asset-class proxy. The fair-value index and expected-return fields mirror the Real Estate class model rather than a security-specific valuation.
TIP
proxy
Inflation-Protected Treasuries
Fixed Income
Last 106.94
Fair 102
Val. +0.9
1Y +4.9%
Inflation-Protected Treasuries is retained as an asset-class proxy. The fair-value index and expected-return fields mirror the Fixed Income class model rather than a security-specific valuation.
TLT
proxy
Long-Term US Treasuries
Fixed Income
Last 82.88
Fair 102
Val. +0.9
1Y +4.9%
Long-Term US Treasuries is retained as an asset-class proxy. The fair-value index and expected-return fields mirror the Fixed Income class model rather than a security-specific valuation.
UNG
proxy
Natural Gas
Energy
Last 10.33
Fair 92
Val. -0.6
1Y +3.5%
Natural Gas is retained as an asset-class proxy. The fair-value index and expected-return fields mirror the Energy class model rather than a security-specific valuation.
USO
direct
US Crude Oil
Energy
Last 129.70
Fair 92
Val. -0.6
1Y +3.5%
US Crude Oil is the representative market-price anchor for Energy. The asset-class model places median current economic value at index 92.0 versus market 100; this is a fair-value estimate, not a price target.
VGK
direct
Europe Broad Market
Europe Equities
Last 91.98
Fair 104
Val. +0.6
1Y +7.5%
Europe Broad Market is the representative market-price anchor for Europe Equities. The asset-class model places median current economic value at index 104.0 versus market 100; this is a fair-value estimate, not a price target.
VNQ
direct
US Real Estate
Real Estate
Last 97.24
Fair 98
Val. -0.3
1Y +5.5%
US Real Estate is the representative market-price anchor for Real Estate. The asset-class model places median current economic value at index 98.0 versus market 100; this is a fair-value estimate, not a price target.
VWO
reference only
Emerging Markets Broad Index
Emerging Markets Equities
Last 60.79
Fair 108
Val. +1.0
1Y +8.5%
Emerging Markets Broad Index is retained as a reference-only broad emerging-markets benchmark. The primary Emerging Markets Equities price anchor is EMXC, while upstream historical calibration uses VWO as an explicit proxy.
XLE
proxy
US Energy Sector
Energy
Last 62.68
Fair 92
Val. -0.6
1Y +3.5%
US Energy Sector is retained as an asset-class proxy. The fair-value index and expected-return fields mirror the Energy class model rather than a security-specific valuation.
XLF
proxy
US Financial Sector
US Equities
Last 58.10
Fair 92
Val. -1.5
1Y +5.0%
US Financial Sector is retained as an asset-class proxy. The fair-value index and expected-return fields mirror the US Equities class model rather than a security-specific valuation.
XLI
proxy
US Industrial Sector
US Equities
Last 177.14
Fair 92
Val. -1.5
1Y +5.0%
US Industrial Sector is retained as an asset-class proxy. The fair-value index and expected-return fields mirror the US Equities class model rather than a security-specific valuation.
XLRE
proxy
US Real Estate Sector
Real Estate
Last 44.48
Fair 98
Val. -0.3
1Y +5.5%
US Real Estate Sector is retained as an asset-class proxy. The fair-value index and expected-return fields mirror the Real Estate class model rather than a security-specific valuation.
XLV
proxy
US Healthcare Sector
US Equities
Last 171.16
Fair 92
Val. -1.5
1Y +5.0%
US Healthcare Sector is retained as an asset-class proxy. The fair-value index and expected-return fields mirror the US Equities class model rather than a security-specific valuation.
XLY
proxy
US Consumer Discretionary Sector
US Equities
Last 117.21
Fair 92
Val. -1.5
1Y +5.0%
US Consumer Discretionary Sector is retained as an asset-class proxy. The fair-value index and expected-return fields mirror the US Equities class model rather than a security-specific valuation.
XOP
proxy
Oil and Gas Producers
Energy
Last 185.94
Fair 92
Val. -0.6
1Y +3.5%
Oil and Gas Producers is retained as an asset-class proxy. The fair-value index and expected-return fields mirror the Energy class model rather than a security-specific valuation.
XRP-USD
proxy
XRP
Crypto
Last 1.382
Fair 105
Val. +0.3
1Y +10.0%
XRP is retained as an asset-class proxy. The fair-value index and expected-return fields mirror the Crypto class model rather than a security-specific valuation.
×
VALUATION INTELLIGENCE
China & Hong Kong Equities
MCHI · China Broad Market
VALUATION
+1.4
Cheap
MODELED FAIR VALUE TODAY
Market = 100 · Median fair value = 112
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
M Market
F Median fair value
P25–P75 central range
M Market 100
F Fair 112
P25–P75 99–128
PRICE WHAT-IF · MCHI
What would valuation look like at a different market price?
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
MODELED MEDIAN FAIR VALUE TODAY
$61.86
Central P25–P75: $54.57–$70.58
Current: $55.23
WHAT-IF VALUATION——
PRICE INDEX—Current market = 100
FAIR-VALUE GAP—To median fair value
PRICE PERCENTILE—Within fair-value distribution
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · MCHI
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
What-If price
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
FAIR-VALUE GAP
+12.0%
Median fair value vs market
1Y EXPECTED RETURN
+9.0%
P10–P90 -13% to +35%
EDGE VS 1Y TREASURY
+5.0%
Treasury 4.0%
LONG-RUN BEAT RATE
56%
Historical base rate · not today's conditional probability
VALUATION CONFIDENCE
85%
high
WHAT SUPPORTS FAIR VALUE
- MSCI China’s forward P/E and price/book remain low relative to developed-market benchmarks in the current cross-section.
- Dividend yield and low starting multiples provide valuation support if earnings stabilize.
WHAT COULD BREAK THE THESIS
- Low multiples can persist when property, policy, governance or growth risks remain elevated.
- Current MSCI valuation data are month-end snapshots rather than a point-in-time historical valuation series.
Forward P/E
11.0 x
MSCI China Index
Price/Book
1.47 x
MSCI China Index
Dividend yield
2.26 %
MSCI China Index
×
VALUATION INTELLIGENCE
Emerging Markets Equities
EMXC · Emerging Markets Ex-China
VALUATION
+1.0
Somewhat cheap
MODELED FAIR VALUE TODAY
Market = 100 · Median fair value = 108
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
M Market
F Median fair value
P25–P75 central range
M Market 100
F Fair 108
P25–P75 96–122
PRICE WHAT-IF · EMXC
What would valuation look like at a different market price?
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
MODELED MEDIAN FAIR VALUE TODAY
$106.00
Central P25–P75: $94.32–$119.55
Current: $98.15
WHAT-IF VALUATION——
PRICE INDEX—Current market = 100
FAIR-VALUE GAP—To median fair value
PRICE PERCENTILE—Within fair-value distribution
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · EMXC
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
What-If price
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
FAIR-VALUE GAP
+8.0%
Median fair value vs market
1Y EXPECTED RETURN
+8.5%
P10–P90 -14% to +35%
EDGE VS 1Y TREASURY
+4.5%
Treasury 4.0%
LONG-RUN BEAT RATE
64%
Historical base rate · not today's conditional probability
VALUATION CONFIDENCE
85%
high
WHAT SUPPORTS FAIR VALUE
- MSCI EM ex-China’s 10.19x forward P/E provides a sizable starting earnings yield.
- Country diversification and a moderate dividend yield support value if earnings and currencies remain resilient.
WHAT COULD BREAK THE THESIS
- Low forward P/E may partly compensate for higher country, currency and policy risk rather than represent pure mispricing.
- EMXC’s current price anchor and the historical VWO calibration benchmark use different geographic scopes.
Forward P/E
10.2 x
MSCI EM ex China Index
Price/Book
3.00 x
MSCI EM ex China Index
Dividend yield
1.97 %
MSCI EM ex China Index
×
VALUATION INTELLIGENCE
Fixed Income
BND · US Broad Bond Market
VALUATION
+0.9
Somewhat cheap
MODELED FAIR VALUE TODAY
Market = 100 · Median fair value = 102
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
M Market
F Median fair value
P25–P75 central range
M Market 100
F Fair 102
P25–P75 99–105
PRICE WHAT-IF · BND
What would valuation look like at a different market price?
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
MODELED MEDIAN FAIR VALUE TODAY
$73.76
Central P25–P75: $71.30–$76.07
Current: $72.31
WHAT-IF VALUATION——
PRICE INDEX—Current market = 100
FAIR-VALUE GAP—To median fair value
PRICE PERCENTILE—Within fair-value distribution
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · BND
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
What-If price
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
FAIR-VALUE GAP
+2.0%
Median fair value vs market
1Y EXPECTED RETURN
+4.9%
P10–P90 +1% to +9%
EDGE VS 1Y TREASURY
+0.9%
Treasury 4.0%
LONG-RUN BEAT RATE
65%
Historical base rate · not today's conditional probability
VALUATION CONFIDENCE
94%
high
WHAT SUPPORTS FAIR VALUE
- BND’s roughly 4.9% portfolio yield provides carry above the 4.04% one-year Treasury hurdle.
- Intermediate duration creates price upside in lower-yield scenarios while current yield limits reliance on price appreciation.
WHAT COULD BREAK THE THESIS
- A further rise in Treasury yields would pressure BND’s price because of its 5.7-year duration.
- Tight investment-grade and high-yield spreads reduce the cushion from additional credit-spread compression.
Yield to maturity
4.87 %
BND portfolio
Yield to worst
4.86 %
BND portfolio
Average duration
5.70 years
BND portfolio
×
VALUATION INTELLIGENCE
Europe Equities
VGK · Europe Broad Market
VALUATION
+0.6
Somewhat cheap
MODELED FAIR VALUE TODAY
Market = 100 · Median fair value = 104
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
M Market
F Median fair value
P25–P75 central range
M Market 100
F Fair 104
P25–P75 95–114
PRICE WHAT-IF · VGK
What would valuation look like at a different market price?
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
MODELED MEDIAN FAIR VALUE TODAY
$95.66
Central P25–P75: $87.20–$104.77
Current: $91.98
WHAT-IF VALUATION——
PRICE INDEX—Current market = 100
FAIR-VALUE GAP—To median fair value
PRICE PERCENTILE—Within fair-value distribution
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · VGK
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
What-If price
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
FAIR-VALUE GAP
+4.0%
Median fair value vs market
1Y EXPECTED RETURN
+7.5%
P10–P90 -10% to +26%
EDGE VS 1Y TREASURY
+3.5%
Treasury 4.0%
LONG-RUN BEAT RATE
62%
Historical base rate · not today's conditional probability
VALUATION CONFIDENCE
88%
high
WHAT SUPPORTS FAIR VALUE
- MSCI Europe’s 14.99x forward P/E remains materially below U.S. large-cap forward valuation.
- A 2.80% dividend yield improves the carry component of prospective total return.
WHAT COULD BREAK THE THESIS
- High global real yields and tighter European monetary conditions can cap justified multiples.
- Regional earnings sensitivity to energy, currency and cyclical growth keeps fair-value dispersion meaningful.
Forward P/E
15.0 x
MSCI Europe Index
Price/Book
2.52 x
MSCI Europe Index
Dividend yield
2.80 %
MSCI Europe Index
×
VALUATION INTELLIGENCE
Crypto
BTC-USD · Bitcoin
VALUATION
+0.3
Fair
MODELED FAIR VALUE TODAY
Market = 100 · Median fair value = 105
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
M Market
F Median fair value
P25–P75 central range
M Market 100
F Fair 105
P25–P75 77–145
PRICE WHAT-IF · BTC-USD
What would valuation look like at a different market price?
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
MODELED MEDIAN FAIR VALUE TODAY
$81,278.21
Central P25–P75: $59,836.25–$111,931.71
Current: $77,407.82
WHAT-IF VALUATION——
PRICE INDEX—Current market = 100
FAIR-VALUE GAP—To median fair value
PRICE PERCENTILE—Within fair-value distribution
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · BTC-USD
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
What-If price
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
FAIR-VALUE GAP
+5.0%
Median fair value vs market
1Y EXPECTED RETURN
+10.0%
P10–P90 -42% to +78%
EDGE VS 1Y TREASURY
+6.0%
Treasury 4.0%
HISTORICAL CALIBRATION
—
Insufficient decision-grade history
VALUATION CONFIDENCE
66%
moderate-high
WHAT SUPPORTS FAIR VALUE
- Bitcoin’s MVRV is above 1 but well below extreme historical cycle peaks, leaving a broad range of defensible network-value scenarios.
- Current market value remains meaningfully above realized value, but realized-value growth can support the network anchor over time.
WHAT COULD BREAK THE THESIS
- MVRV around 1.52 indicates the market is well above aggregate realized value, increasing downside if liquidity or adoption weakens.
- Crypto has no universally accepted intrinsic-value framework, so model dispersion and uncertainty remain structurally high.
Bitcoin MVRV
1.52 x
Glassnode aggregated wallet-size MVRV
Bitcoin realized-value anchor
51014.1 USD
Current BTC price divided by MVRV
10Y real Treasury yield
2.34 %
Current real opportunity-cost anchor
×
VALUATION INTELLIGENCE
Japan Equities
EWJ · Japan Broad Market
VALUATION
+0.2
Fair
MODELED FAIR VALUE TODAY
Market = 100 · Median fair value = 101
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
M Market
F Median fair value
P25–P75 central range
M Market 100
F Fair 101
P25–P75 92–111
PRICE WHAT-IF · EWJ
What would valuation look like at a different market price?
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
MODELED MEDIAN FAIR VALUE TODAY
$96.83
Central P25–P75: $88.01–$106.32
Current: $95.87
WHAT-IF VALUATION——
PRICE INDEX—Current market = 100
FAIR-VALUE GAP—To median fair value
PRICE PERCENTILE—Within fair-value distribution
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · EWJ
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
What-If price
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
FAIR-VALUE GAP
+1.0%
Median fair value vs market
1Y EXPECTED RETURN
+6.5%
P10–P90 -11% to +25%
EDGE VS 1Y TREASURY
+2.5%
Treasury 4.0%
LONG-RUN BEAT RATE
57%
Historical base rate · not today's conditional probability
VALUATION CONFIDENCE
87%
high
WHAT SUPPORTS FAIR VALUE
- Forward valuation is closer to a defensible mid-cycle range than U.S. large caps.
- Positive earnings economics and shareholder distributions support current value despite a higher global discount-rate hurdle.
WHAT COULD BREAK THE THESIS
- Further rate normalization or yen appreciation can reduce the justified multiple for exporters and rate-sensitive sectors.
- Current valuation evidence does not fully capture sector-level dispersion across the supplied Japan ETFs.
Forward P/E
16.4 x
MSCI Japan Index
Price/Book
2.01 x
MSCI Japan Index
Dividend yield
1.78 %
MSCI Japan Index
×
VALUATION INTELLIGENCE
Metals
GLD · Gold
VALUATION
-0.2
Fair
MODELED FAIR VALUE TODAY
Market = 100 · Median fair value = 98
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
M Market
F Median fair value
P25–P75 central range
M Market 100
F Fair 98
P25–P75 85–114
PRICE WHAT-IF · GLD
What would valuation look like at a different market price?
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
MODELED MEDIAN FAIR VALUE TODAY
$400.71
Central P25–P75: $346.74–$465.32
Current: $408.89
WHAT-IF VALUATION——
PRICE INDEX—Current market = 100
FAIR-VALUE GAP—To median fair value
PRICE PERCENTILE—Within fair-value distribution
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · GLD
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
What-If price
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
FAIR-VALUE GAP
-2.0%
Median fair value vs market
1Y EXPECTED RETURN
+4.5%
P10–P90 -20% to +33%
EDGE VS 1Y TREASURY
+0.5%
Treasury 4.0%
LONG-RUN BEAT RATE
66%
Historical base rate · not today's conditional probability
VALUATION CONFIDENCE
82%
high
WHAT SUPPORTS FAIR VALUE
- Central-bank gold purchases rebounded sharply in Q2 and remain a structural source of demand.
- World Gold Council expects investment and reserve-diversification demand to remain important through the second half.
WHAT COULD BREAK THE THESIS
- A 2.34% real 10-year Treasury yield is a significant opportunity-cost headwind for non-yielding metals.
- High gold prices are suppressing jewellery volumes, and Q2 gold ETF demand was negative.
Q2 average gold price
4506.3 USD/oz
World Gold Council Q2 2026
Q2 central-bank net demand
288.9 tonnes
World Gold Council Q2 2026
Q2 gold ETF demand
-44.8 tonnes
World Gold Council Q2 2026
×
VALUATION INTELLIGENCE
Real Estate
VNQ · US Real Estate
VALUATION
-0.3
Fair
MODELED FAIR VALUE TODAY
Market = 100 · Median fair value = 98
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
M Market
F Median fair value
P25–P75 central range
M Market 100
F Fair 98
P25–P75 89–109
PRICE WHAT-IF · VNQ
What would valuation look like at a different market price?
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
MODELED MEDIAN FAIR VALUE TODAY
$95.30
Central P25–P75: $86.35–$105.60
Current: $97.24
WHAT-IF VALUATION——
PRICE INDEX—Current market = 100
FAIR-VALUE GAP—To median fair value
PRICE PERCENTILE—Within fair-value distribution
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · VNQ
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
What-If price
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
FAIR-VALUE GAP
-2.0%
Median fair value vs market
1Y EXPECTED RETURN
+5.5%
P10–P90 -13% to +27%
EDGE VS 1Y TREASURY
+1.5%
Treasury 4.0%
LONG-RUN BEAT RATE
68%
Historical base rate · not today's conditional probability
VALUATION CONFIDENCE
84%
high
WHAT SUPPORTS FAIR VALUE
- VNQ’s reported earnings growth provides an economic offset to a high headline P/E.
- Income-producing real assets can retain value if rent/cash-flow growth remains durable and long yields stabilize.
WHAT COULD BREAK THE THESIS
- A 4.67% 10-year Treasury yield remains a demanding financing and cap-rate backdrop for REITs.
- Public fund P/E is a weaker REIT valuation anchor than AFFO/NAV; current standardized AFFO/NAV evidence was not available in a strong primary source.
P/E ratio
32.2 x
VNQ portfolio
Earnings growth rate
6.77 %
VNQ portfolio
Price/Book
2.60 x
VNQ portfolio
×
VALUATION INTELLIGENCE
Developed Pacific Equities
EWA · Australia Broad Market
VALUATION
-0.4
Somewhat expensive
MODELED FAIR VALUE TODAY
Market = 100 · Median fair value = 97
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
M Market
F Median fair value
P25–P75 central range
M Market 100
F Fair 97
P25–P75 87–108
PRICE WHAT-IF · EWA
What would valuation look like at a different market price?
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
MODELED MEDIAN FAIR VALUE TODAY
$29.10
Central P25–P75: $26.13–$32.28
Current: $30.00
WHAT-IF VALUATION——
PRICE INDEX—Current market = 100
FAIR-VALUE GAP—To median fair value
PRICE PERCENTILE—Within fair-value distribution
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · EWA
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
What-If price
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
FAIR-VALUE GAP
-3.0%
Median fair value vs market
1Y EXPECTED RETURN
+5.5%
P10–P90 -12% to +24%
EDGE VS 1Y TREASURY
+1.5%
Treasury 4.0%
LONG-RUN BEAT RATE
63%
Historical base rate · not today's conditional probability
VALUATION CONFIDENCE
84%
high
WHAT SUPPORTS FAIR VALUE
- A 3.24% dividend yield provides meaningful income support relative to other developed equity regions.
- Forward valuation remains below U.S. large-cap levels, limiting the degree of modeled overvaluation.
WHAT COULD BREAK THE THESIS
- Pacific ex-Japan forward P/E is relatively full at 17.69x against high global real yields.
- EWA is Australia-heavy, so its current price path is an imperfect anchor for a broader Australia/Singapore/New Zealand asset class.
Forward P/E
17.7 x
MSCI Pacific ex Japan Index
Price/Book
2.22 x
MSCI Pacific ex Japan Index
Dividend yield
3.24 %
MSCI Pacific ex Japan Index
×
VALUATION INTELLIGENCE
Energy
USO · US Crude Oil
VALUATION
-0.6
Somewhat expensive
MODELED FAIR VALUE TODAY
Market = 100 · Median fair value = 92
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
M Market
F Median fair value
P25–P75 central range
M Market 100
F Fair 92
P25–P75 78–110
PRICE WHAT-IF · USO
What would valuation look like at a different market price?
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
MODELED MEDIAN FAIR VALUE TODAY
$119.32
Central P25–P75: $100.52–$142.41
Current: $129.70
WHAT-IF VALUATION——
PRICE INDEX—Current market = 100
FAIR-VALUE GAP—To median fair value
PRICE PERCENTILE—Within fair-value distribution
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · USO
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
What-If price
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
FAIR-VALUE GAP
-8.0%
Median fair value vs market
1Y EXPECTED RETURN
+3.5%
P10–P90 -24% to +35%
EDGE VS 1Y TREASURY
-0.5%
Treasury 4.0%
LONG-RUN BEAT RATE
44%
Historical base rate · not today's conditional probability
VALUATION CONFIDENCE
83%
high
WHAT SUPPORTS FAIR VALUE
- EIA expects near-term Brent prices to remain elevated because of constrained Hormuz transit and lower inventories.
- Below-five-year-low U.S. crude inventories support current commodity economics in the near term.
WHAT COULD BREAK THE THESIS
- EIA expects Brent to fall toward about $69/b in 2027 as production recovers and inventories rebuild.
- USO’s futures roll and contract mix mean spot-price fair-value scenarios do not map one-for-one to ETF NAV.
Brent Q3 2026 forecast
85.0 USD/bbl
EIA STEO
Brent 2027 forecast
69.0 USD/bbl
EIA STEO
Henry Hub 2026 forecast
3.44 USD/MMBtu
EIA STEO
×
VALUATION INTELLIGENCE
US Equities
SPY · US Large-Cap Index
VALUATION
-1.5
Expensive
MODELED FAIR VALUE TODAY
Market = 100 · Median fair value = 92
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
M Market
F Median fair value
P25–P75 central range
M Market 100
F Fair 92
P25–P75 83–100
PRICE WHAT-IF · SPY
What would valuation look like at a different market price?
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
MODELED MEDIAN FAIR VALUE TODAY
$707.80
Central P25–P75: $639.33–$768.58
Current: $769.35
WHAT-IF VALUATION——
PRICE INDEX—Current market = 100
FAIR-VALUE GAP—To median fair value
PRICE PERCENTILE—Within fair-value distribution
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · SPY
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
What-If price
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
FAIR-VALUE GAP
-8.0%
Median fair value vs market
1Y EXPECTED RETURN
+5.0%
P10–P90 -11% to +22%
EDGE VS 1Y TREASURY
+1.0%
Treasury 4.0%
LONG-RUN BEAT RATE
80%
Historical base rate · not today's conditional probability
VALUATION CONFIDENCE
90%
high
WHAT SUPPORTS FAIR VALUE
- Strong forecast 3–5 year EPS growth supports a higher justified multiple than a static historical-average comparison would imply.
- Broad U.S. corporate earnings remain a substantial economic-value anchor even as current multiples are elevated.
WHAT COULD BREAK THE THESIS
- SPY’s 21.32x FY1 P/E and 41.18x Shiller CAPE leave less valuation margin if earnings growth disappoints.
- A 2.34% 10-year real Treasury yield raises the opportunity cost and discount rate for long-duration equity cash flows.
Forward P/E
21.3 x
SPY FY1 weighted harmonic P/E
Est. 3-5Y EPS growth
19.4 %
FactSet estimates through SPY holdings
Price/Book
5.33 x
SPY portfolio characteristic
Valuation score
Where current market price (100) sits within the modeled fair-value distribution. Positive = cheaper; negative = more expensive.
Fair-value gap
Median modeled fair value relative to today’s price. It is not an expected return or a timing forecast.
1Y expected return
A separate forward return scenario distribution that can differ materially from the fair-value gap.
Expected edge vs Treasury
Modeled 1Y expected return minus the current 1Y Treasury benchmark. Positive values indicate modeled return above the benchmark.
Historical probability
When available, this is the calibrated share of comparable historical starting regimes that beat the contemporaneous 1Y Treasury benchmark. Long-run base rates are not substituted for it.
Valuation confidence
Evidence-strength score displayed as a percentage for readability. It is not a probability that the valuation is correct.