Metals
Data cutoff
Modeled fair value
GLD · Gold
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100
Today’s price sits at the 52.9th percentile of modeled fair value — 47% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 98.0
- Upside to median
- -2.0%
- Last close
- $408.89
- Confidence
- high
index, market = 100
2026-08-28
82/100
Modeled returns
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +33.0%
- P75
- +19.7%
- Median
- +4.5%
- P25
- -8.7%
- P10
- -20.3%
59% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Gold/metal demand-supply, real-yield and partial valuation normalization scenarios; no momentum input.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +16.9%
- P75
- +11.1%
- Median
- +4.5%
- P25
- -1.4%
- P10
- -6.6%
Three-year annualized scenario blend using the same economic anchors with slower partial valuation convergence and wider structural uncertainty.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.04%
- Expected excess
- +0.5%
- Basis
- direct
DGS1 is the current investment-basis annual hurdle; modeled expected excess is not guaranteed. Historical calibration uses start-date DGS1 as a hurdle proxy.
Instruments
7 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GLD Gold | -0.2Fair | 98.0 | $408.89 | +4.5% |
| SLV Silver | -0.2Fair | 98.0 | $60.02 | +4.5% |
| PPLT Platinum | -0.2Fair | 98.0 | $16.49 | +4.5% |
| CPER Copper | -0.2Fair | 98.0 | $39.67 | +4.5% |
| DBB Base Metals | -0.2Fair | 98.0 | $25.48 | +4.5% |
| GDX Gold Miners | -0.2Fair | 98.0 | $99.65 | +4.5% |
| PICK Global Metals and Mining | -0.2Fair | 98.0 | $65.76 | +4.5% |