US Equities
Today’s price sits at the 74.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 25% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 92.0
- Upside to median
- -8.0%
- Last close
- $769.35
- Confidence
- high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
blended- P90
- +22.3%
- P75
- +14.2%
- Median
- +5.0%
- P25
- -3.6%
- P10
- -11.1%
65% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Blended earnings growth, shareholder yield, partial valuation normalization and long-run realized-return prior; no short-term momentum input.
Three years, annualised
blended- P90
- +14.0%
- P75
- +10.3%
- Median
- +6.0%
- P25
- +2.0%
- P10
- -1.4%
Three-year annualized scenario blend using the same economic anchors with slower partial valuation convergence and wider structural uncertainty.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.04%
- Expected excess
- +1.0%
- Basis
- direct
DGS1 is the current investment-basis annual hurdle; modeled expected excess is not guaranteed. Historical calibration uses start-date DGS1 as a hurdle proxy.
10 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY US Large-Cap Index | -1.5Expensive | 92.0 | $769.35 | +5.0% |
| QQQ US Technology Index | -1.5Expensive | 92.0 | $716.43 | +5.0% |
| DIA US Blue-Chip Index | -1.5Expensive | 92.0 | $535.06 | +5.0% |
| IWM US Small-Cap Index | -1.5Expensive | 92.0 | $295.75 | +5.0% |
| RSP US Equal-Weight Index | -1.5Expensive | 92.0 | $220.69 | +5.0% |
| XLF US Financial Sector | -1.5Expensive | 92.0 | $58.10 | +5.0% |
| XLI US Industrial Sector | -1.5Expensive | 92.0 | $177.14 | +5.0% |
| XLV US Healthcare Sector | -1.5Expensive | 92.0 | $171.16 | +5.0% |
| XLY US Consumer Discretionary Sector | -1.5Expensive | 92.0 | $117.21 | +5.0% |
| SMH US Semiconductor Sector | -1.5Expensive | 92.0 | $553.11 | +5.0% |