Fixed Income
Data cutoff
Modeled fair value
BND · US Broad Bond Market
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100
Today’s price sits at the 35.3th percentile of modeled fair value — 65% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 102.0
- Upside to median
- +2.0%
- Last close
- $72.31
- Confidence
- high
index, market = 100
2026-08-28
94/100
Modeled returns
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +8.9%
- P75
- +7.0%
- Median
- +4.9%
- P25
- +2.9%
- P10
- +1.2%
94% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Starting portfolio yield plus duration/spread scenarios; return distribution separates carry from price effects.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +7.2%
- P75
- +6.0%
- Median
- +4.7%
- P25
- +3.4%
- P10
- +2.2%
Three-year annualized scenario blend using the same economic anchors with slower partial valuation convergence and wider structural uncertainty.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.04%
- Expected excess
- +0.9%
- Basis
- direct
DGS1 is the current investment-basis annual hurdle; modeled expected excess is not guaranteed. Historical calibration uses start-date DGS1 as a hurdle proxy.
Instruments
7 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BND US Broad Bond Market | +0.9Somewhat cheap | 102.0 | $72.31 | +4.9% |
| TLT Long-Term US Treasuries | +0.9Somewhat cheap | 102.0 | $82.88 | +4.9% |
| IEF Intermediate US Treasuries | +0.9Somewhat cheap | 102.0 | $92.85 | +4.9% |
| SHY Short-Term US Treasuries | +0.9Somewhat cheap | 102.0 | $81.89 | +4.9% |
| TIP Inflation-Protected Treasuries | +0.9Somewhat cheap | 102.0 | $106.94 | +4.9% |
| LQD Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds | +0.9Somewhat cheap | 102.0 | $106.35 | +4.9% |
| HYG High-Yield Corporate Bonds | +0.9Somewhat cheap | 102.0 | $79.74 | +4.9% |