Crypto
Today’s price sits at the 45.1th percentile of modeled fair value — 55% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 0–240 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 30–210 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 105.0
- Upside to median
- +5.0%
- Last close
- $77,407.82
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +78.1%
- P75
- +46.3%
- Median
- +10.0%
- P25
- -17.7%
- P10
- -42.0%
59% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Network adoption, realized-value/MVRV mean-reversion and liquidity scenarios with very wide uncertainty.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +46.7%
- P75
- +30.5%
- Median
- +12.0%
- P25
- -1.2%
- P10
- -12.8%
Three-year annualized scenario blend using the same economic anchors with slower partial valuation convergence and wider structural uncertainty.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.04%
- Expected excess
- +6.0%
- Basis
- direct
DGS1 is the current investment-basis annual hurdle; modeled expected excess is not guaranteed. Historical calibration uses start-date DGS1 as a hurdle proxy.