Real Estate
Data cutoff
Modeled fair value
VNQ · US Real Estate
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100
Today’s price sits at the 54.9th percentile of modeled fair value — 45% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 98.0
- Upside to median
- -2.0%
- Last close
- $97.24
- Confidence
- high
index, market = 100
2026-08-28
84/100
Modeled returns
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
blended- P90
- +26.5%
- P75
- +16.7%
- Median
- +5.5%
- P25
- -4.4%
- P10
- -13.1%
65% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Distribution/income, earnings growth and partial valuation normalization under alternative rate paths.
Three years, annualised
blended- P90
- +16.4%
- P75
- +11.8%
- Median
- +6.5%
- P25
- +1.6%
- P10
- -2.8%
Three-year annualized scenario blend using the same economic anchors with slower partial valuation convergence and wider structural uncertainty.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.04%
- Expected excess
- +1.5%
- Basis
- direct
DGS1 is the current investment-basis annual hurdle; modeled expected excess is not guaranteed. Historical calibration uses start-date DGS1 as a hurdle proxy.
Instruments
6 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VNQ US Real Estate | -0.3Fair | 98.0 | $97.24 | +5.5% |
| XLRE US Real Estate Sector | -0.3Fair | 98.0 | $44.48 | +5.5% |
| REET Global Real Estate | -0.3Fair | 98.0 | $27.68 | +5.5% |
| REM Mortgage Real Estate | -0.3Fair | 98.0 | $21.78 | +5.5% |
| SRVR Data Center and Digital REITs | -0.3Fair | 98.0 | $31.22 | +5.5% |
| REZ Residential and Specialized REITs | -0.3Fair | 98.0 | $94.64 | +5.5% |