Energy
Today’s price sits at the 60.8th percentile of modeled fair value — 39% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 92.0
- Upside to median
- -8.0%
- Last close
- $129.70
- Confidence
- high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +34.5%
- P75
- +20.0%
- Median
- +3.5%
- P25
- -11.0%
- P10
- -23.7%
57% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Commodity-price normalization, roll/producer economics and supply-demand scenarios; wide range reflects spot/futures and geopolitical uncertainty.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +18.6%
- P75
- +12.3%
- Median
- +5.0%
- P25
- -1.6%
- P10
- -7.4%
Three-year annualized scenario blend using the same economic anchors with slower partial valuation convergence and wider structural uncertainty.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.04%
- Expected excess
- -0.5%
- Basis
- direct
DGS1 is the current investment-basis annual hurdle; modeled expected excess is not guaranteed. Historical calibration uses start-date DGS1 as a hurdle proxy.
5 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USO US Crude Oil | -0.6Somewhat expensive | 92.0 | $129.70 | +3.5% |
| BNO Brent Crude Oil | -0.6Somewhat expensive | 92.0 | $51.48 | +3.5% |
| UNG Natural Gas | -0.6Somewhat expensive | 92.0 | $10.33 | +3.5% |
| XLE US Energy Sector | -0.6Somewhat expensive | 92.0 | $62.68 | +3.5% |
| XOP Oil and Gas Producers | -0.6Somewhat expensive | 92.0 | $185.94 | +3.5% |