Emerging Markets Equities
Today’s price sits at the 33.3th percentile of modeled fair value — 67% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 108.0
- Upside to median
- +8.0%
- Last close
- $98.15
- Confidence
- high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
blended- P90
- +34.5%
- P75
- +22.3%
- Median
- +8.5%
- P25
- -3.4%
- P10
- -13.8%
69% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Blended earnings/dividend carry, partial valuation normalization and historical realized-return prior with wider country/currency dispersion.
Three years, annualised
blended- P90
- +20.4%
- P75
- +14.6%
- Median
- +8.0%
- P25
- +2.1%
- P10
- -3.1%
Three-year annualized scenario blend using the same economic anchors with slower partial valuation convergence and wider structural uncertainty.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.04%
- Expected excess
- +4.5%
- Basis
- direct
DGS1 is the current investment-basis annual hurdle; modeled expected excess is not guaranteed. Historical calibration uses start-date DGS1 as a hurdle proxy.
7 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VWO Emerging Markets Broad Index | +1.0Somewhat cheap | 108.0 | $60.79 | +8.5% |
| EMXC Emerging Markets Ex-China | +1.0Somewhat cheap | 108.0 | $98.15 | +8.5% |
| INDA India Index | +1.0Somewhat cheap | 108.0 | $49.56 | +8.5% |
| EWZ Brazil Index | +1.0Somewhat cheap | 108.0 | $35.55 | +8.5% |
| EWT Taiwan Index | +1.0Somewhat cheap | 108.0 | $107.90 | +8.5% |
| EWY South Korea Index | +1.0Somewhat cheap | 108.0 | $180.20 | +8.5% |
| EZA South Africa Index | +1.0Somewhat cheap | 108.0 | $70.72 | +8.5% |