China & Hong Kong Equities
Today’s price sits at the 27.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 73% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 112.0
- Upside to median
- +12.0%
- Last close
- $55.23
- Confidence
- high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
blended- P90
- +35.0%
- P75
- +22.8%
- Median
- +9.0%
- P25
- -2.9%
- P10
- -13.3%
69% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Blended earnings/dividend carry, partial valuation normalization and asset-specific historical return prior with wide macro/policy uncertainty.
Three years, annualised
blended- P90
- +20.9%
- P75
- +15.1%
- Median
- +8.5%
- P25
- +2.6%
- P10
- -2.6%
Three-year annualized scenario blend using the same economic anchors with slower partial valuation convergence and wider structural uncertainty.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.04%
- Expected excess
- +5.0%
- Basis
- direct
DGS1 is the current investment-basis annual hurdle; modeled expected excess is not guaranteed. Historical calibration uses start-date DGS1 as a hurdle proxy.
10 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCHI China Broad Market | +1.4Cheap | 112.0 | $55.23 | +9.0% |
| FXI China Large-Cap | +1.4Cheap | 112.0 | $35.51 | +9.0% |
| KWEB China Internet Sector | +1.4Cheap | 112.0 | $26.32 | +9.0% |
| ASHR China A-Shares | +1.4Cheap | 112.0 | $34.29 | +9.0% |
| CQQQ China Technology Sector | +1.4Cheap | 112.0 | $48.94 | +9.0% |
| CHIQ China Consumer Sector | +1.4Cheap | 112.0 | $17.48 | +9.0% |
| EWH Hong Kong Broad Market | +1.4Cheap | 112.0 | $22.94 | +9.0% |
| 2800.HK Hang Seng Index Tracker | +1.4Cheap | 112.0 | $26.14 | +9.0% |
| 3033.HK Hang Seng Technology Index | +1.4Cheap | 112.0 | $4.53 | +9.0% |
| 3110.HK Hong Kong High-Dividend Equity | +1.4Cheap | 112.0 | $31.64 | +9.0% |