Valuation Lens — August 28, 2026

China and emerging markets lead value while U.S. equities remain expensive

Every asset class is indexed so today’s market price equals 100. A median fair value of 112 means the model puts fair value 12% above the current price; 93 means 7% below it. Modeled returns are distributions, not forecasts.

August 28, 2026Data cutoff Aug 28, 2026, 9:22 PM EDT

The hurdle to beat

4.04%1y Treasury

The 4.04% one-year Treasury is the preferred annual hurdle, with the 10-year Treasury at 4.67% and the 10-year real yield at 2.34%.

10y Treasury: 4.7%
10y real: 2.3%

Scorecard

Cheap to expensive

Ranked by valuation score. Positive means the model sees value below the market price — the opposite convention to a trend score, so the labels are always shown alongside.

China & Hong Kong EquitiesMCHI
+1.4
Cheap
Median fair value
112.098.8–127.8
Upside to median
+12.0%
1y modeled
+9.0%-13.3% to 35.0%
vs Treasury
+5.0%
Emerging Markets EquitiesEMXC
+1.0
Somewhat cheap
Median fair value
108.096.1–121.8
Upside to median
+8.0%
1y modeled
+8.5%-13.8% to 34.5%
vs Treasury
+4.5%
Fixed IncomeBND
+0.9
Somewhat cheap
Median fair value
102.098.6–105.2
Upside to median
+2.0%
1y modeled
+4.9%1.2% to 8.9%
vs Treasury
+0.9%
Europe EquitiesVGK
+0.6
Somewhat cheap
Median fair value
104.094.8–113.9
Upside to median
+4.0%
1y modeled
+7.5%-9.8% to 26.1%
vs Treasury
+3.5%
CryptoBTC-USD
+0.3
Fair
Median fair value
105.077.3–144.6
Upside to median
+5.0%
1y modeled
+10.0%-42.0% to 78.1%
vs Treasury
+6.0%
Japan EquitiesEWJ
+0.2
Fair
Median fair value
101.091.8–110.9
Upside to median
+1.0%
1y modeled
+6.5%-10.8% to 25.1%
vs Treasury
+2.5%
MetalsGLD
-0.2
Fair
Median fair value
98.084.8–113.8
Upside to median
-2.0%
1y modeled
+4.5%-20.3% to 33.0%
vs Treasury
+0.5%
Real EstateVNQ
-0.3
Fair
Median fair value
98.088.8–108.6
Upside to median
-2.0%
1y modeled
+5.5%-13.1% to 26.5%
vs Treasury
+1.5%
Developed Pacific EquitiesEWA
-0.4
Somewhat expensive
Median fair value
97.087.1–107.6
Upside to median
-3.0%
1y modeled
+5.5%-11.8% to 24.1%
vs Treasury
+1.5%
EnergyUSO
-0.6
Somewhat expensive
Median fair value
92.077.5–109.8
Upside to median
-8.0%
1y modeled
+3.5%-23.7% to 34.5%
vs Treasury
-0.5%
US EquitiesSPY
-1.5
Expensive
Median fair value
92.083.1–99.9
Upside to median
-8.0%
1y modeled
+5.0%-11.1% to 22.3%
vs Treasury
+1.0%

Valuation Lens scores by asset class for 2026-08-28, ranked cheapest to most expensive.
Asset class	Valuation	Median fair value	Upside to median	1y modeled	vs Treasury
China & Hong Kong Equities MCHI	+1.4 Cheap	112.0 98.8–127.8	+12.0%	+9.0% -13.3% to 35.0%	+5.0%
Emerging Markets Equities EMXC	+1.0 Somewhat cheap	108.0 96.1–121.8	+8.0%	+8.5% -13.8% to 34.5%	+4.5%
Fixed Income BND	+0.9 Somewhat cheap	102.0 98.6–105.2	+2.0%	+4.9% 1.2% to 8.9%	+0.9%
Europe Equities VGK	+0.6 Somewhat cheap	104.0 94.8–113.9	+4.0%	+7.5% -9.8% to 26.1%	+3.5%
Crypto BTC-USD	+0.3 Fair	105.0 77.3–144.6	+5.0%	+10.0% -42.0% to 78.1%	+6.0%
Japan Equities EWJ	+0.2 Fair	101.0 91.8–110.9	+1.0%	+6.5% -10.8% to 25.1%	+2.5%
Metals GLD	-0.2 Fair	98.0 84.8–113.8	-2.0%	+4.5% -20.3% to 33.0%	+0.5%
Real Estate VNQ	-0.3 Fair	98.0 88.8–108.6	-2.0%	+5.5% -13.1% to 26.5%	+1.5%
Developed Pacific Equities EWA	-0.4 Somewhat expensive	97.0 87.1–107.6	-3.0%	+5.5% -11.8% to 24.1%	+1.5%
Energy USO	-0.6 Somewhat expensive	92.0 77.5–109.8	-8.0%	+3.5% -23.7% to 34.5%	-0.5%
US Equities SPY	-1.5 Expensive	92.0 83.1–99.9	-8.0%	+5.0% -11.1% to 22.3%	+1.0%

Scores run −3 to +3: −3 is very expensive against modeled fair value, +3 very cheap. Positive means undervalued.

“1y modeled” shows the median of a scenario distribution with its 10th-to-90th percentile range beneath. These are model outputs under stated assumptions, not predictions, and the range is as important as the midpoint.

Distributions

Where the market sits inside modeled fair value

Each curve is the model's full range of fair-value outcomes. The solid marker is today's price; the dashed line is the median of the distribution.

China & Hong Kong Equities

MCHI · China Broad Market

+1.4Cheap

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 27.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 73% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 61%Historical base rate: 56%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Emerging Markets Equities

EMXC · Emerging Markets Ex-China

+1.0Somewhat cheap

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 33.3th percentile of modeled fair value — 67% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 59%Historical base rate: 64%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Fixed Income

BND · US Broad Bond Market

+0.9Somewhat cheap

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 35.3th percentile of modeled fair value — 65% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 61%Historical base rate: 65%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Europe Equities

VGK · Europe Broad Market

+0.6Somewhat cheap

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 39.2th percentile of modeled fair value — 61% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 59%Historical base rate: 62%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Crypto

BTC-USD · Bitcoin

+0.3Fair

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 45.1th percentile of modeled fair value — 55% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Axis widened to 0–240 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 30–210 would clip this distribution’s tails.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 55%

Japan Equities

EWJ · Japan Broad Market

+0.2Fair

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 47.1th percentile of modeled fair value — 53% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 57%Historical base rate: 57%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Metals

GLD · Gold

-0.2Fair

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 52.9th percentile of modeled fair value — 47% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 51%Historical base rate: 66%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Real Estate

VNQ · US Real Estate

-0.3Fair

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 54.9th percentile of modeled fair value — 45% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 53%Historical base rate: 68%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Developed Pacific Equities

EWA · Australia Broad Market

-0.4Somewhat expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 56.9th percentile of modeled fair value — 43% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 55%Historical base rate: 63%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Energy

USO · US Crude Oil

-0.6Somewhat expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 60.8th percentile of modeled fair value — 39% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 49%Historical base rate: 44%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

US Equities

SPY · US Large-Cap Index

-1.5Expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 74.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 25% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 53%Historical base rate: 80%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Sources11

1
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY)
State Street Global Advisors
2
MSCI China Index
MSCI
3
MSCI Japan Index
MSCI
4
MSCI Pacific ex Japan Index
MSCI
5
MSCI Emerging Markets ex China Index
MSCI
6
MSCI Europe Index
MSCI
7
Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND)
Vanguard
8
Vanguard Real Estate ETF (VNQ)
Vanguard
9
Short-Term Energy Outlook — August 2026
U.S. Energy Information Administration
10
Gold Demand Trends: Q2 2026
World Gold Council
11
BTC MVRV by Wallet Size
Glassnode

Methodology: cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4
Schema version: 3.4.0
Run ID: 2026-08-28_valuation-lens_212233-et

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.