Valuation Lens - August 25, 2026
China and emerging markets screen cheap, while U.S. equities, metals and energy look richer against a 4.04% one-year Treasury hurdle.
CXProWealth.com
VALUATION INTELLIGENCE
Cross-asset valuation & forward return intelligence
Valuation Lens - August 25, 2026
Cheap emerging markets contrast with expensive U.S. equities and metals
As of August 25, 2026
11 Asset Classes Valued
70 Valuation Instruments
1Y Treasury 4.04%
Research cutoff · Aug 26, 2026 · 03:22 UTC
WHAT THIS REPORT DOES How Valuation Lens estimates present fair value and identifies markets that look cheap, fair, or expensive.
VALUATION FRAMEWORK
Valuation Lens helps investors judge whether current market pricing looks cheap, fair, or expensive relative to modeled present fair value.
Each asset class is evaluated by comparing today’s market price with a distribution of defensible current economic values. That fair-value distribution is built from asset-specific fundamentals, expected growth and cash-flow progression, valuation relationships and multiples, interest-rate and real-yield conditions, historical valuation context, and other relevant economic anchors. The result is not a pure price target: it is a structured estimate of what the asset could reasonably be worth today under a range of economically defensible assumptions.
Undervalued vs overvalued
Where market price sits within the modeled fair-value distribution determines the valuation score: toward the lower tail means cheaper, toward the upper tail means more expensive, and near the center is closer to fair.
Decision-useful outputs
The report highlights fair-value gap, modeled expected return, expected edge versus the 1Y Treasury benchmark, and confidence in the valuation signal.
How to use it
Use the valuation score and fair-value curve as a disciplined decision aid alongside risk, diversification, and time-horizon considerations.
1Y Treasury benchmark
4.04%
Low-risk return reference
Cheapest valuation
China & HK
+1.9 · Cheap
Most expensive valuation
U.S. Equities
-2.0 · Expensive
Highest expected edge vs Treasury
+6.5%
China & HK
Cross-asset valuation & expected return
Valuation opportunity map
Green = cheaper relative to modeled fair value. Red = more expensive. Tiles are ordered from cheaper to more expensive.
CHEAPER +3-3 MORE EXPENSIVE
China & HK
+1.9
Cheap
Fair gap +20.0% · Edge +6.5%
Europe Equities
+1.3
Cheap
Fair gap +9.0% · Edge +3.5%
Emerging Mkts
+1.3
Cheap
Fair gap +14.0% · Edge +5.5%
Fixed Income
+0.5
Somewhat cheap
Fair gap +1.0% · Edge +0.9%
Japan Equities
+0.5
Somewhat cheap
Fair gap +4.0% · Edge +2.5%
Developed Pacific
+0.5
Somewhat cheap
Fair gap +3.0% · Edge +2.0%
Crypto
+0.5
Somewhat cheap
Fair gap +3.0% · Edge +5.0%
Real Estate
-0.5
Somewhat expensive
Fair gap -1.0% · Edge +1.5%
Energy
-1.3
Expensive
Fair gap -7.0% · Edge -3.0%
Metals
-1.3
Expensive
Fair gap -5.0% · Edge -1.5%
U.S. Equities
-2.0
Expensive
Fair gap -7.0% · Edge +0.5%
Select an asset to open its fair value, expected returns, historical calibration, key drivers, and risks.
Detailed valuation dashboard
M = Market price (100) · F = Median fair value · common axis 50–200
How to read the fair-value curve
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, the chart shows the range of defensible current economic values.
M Market price normalized to 100
F Median modeled fair value
P25–P75 central fair-value range
| Asset class | Fair-value distribution | Valuation | Fair-value gap | 1Y expected | Expected edge vs 1Y Treasury | Val. confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
China & Hong Kong Equities
View details
|
|
+1.9 Cheap | +20.0% Fair 120 | +10.5% -20% to +32% | +6.5% Treasury 4.0% | 79% moderate-high |
|
Europe Equities
View details
|
|
+1.3 Cheap | +9.0% Fair 109 | +7.5% -11% to +20% | +3.5% Treasury 4.0% | 84% high |
|
Emerging Markets Equities
View details
|
|
+1.3 Cheap | +14.0% Fair 114 | +9.5% -18% to +30% | +5.5% Treasury 4.0% | 80% high |
|
Fixed Income
View details
|
|
+0.5 Somewhat cheap | +1.0% Fair 101 | +4.9% -3% to +10% | +0.9% Treasury 4.0% | 91% high |
|
Japan Equities
View details
|
|
+0.5 Somewhat cheap | +4.0% Fair 104 | +6.5% -12% to +19% | +2.5% Treasury 4.0% | 84% high |
|
Developed Pacific Equities
View details
|
|
+0.5 Somewhat cheap | +3.0% Fair 103 | +6.0% -10% to +18% | +2.0% Treasury 4.0% | 82% high |
|
Crypto
View details
|
|
+0.5 Somewhat cheap | +3.0% Fair 103 | +9.0% -38% to +65% | +5.0% Treasury 4.0% | 63% moderate |
|
Real Estate
View details
|
|
-0.5 Somewhat expensive | -1.0% Fair 99 | +5.5% -12% to +18% | +1.5% Treasury 4.0% | 80% high |
|
Energy
View details
|
|
-1.3 Expensive | -7.0% Fair 93 | +1.0% -24% to +24% | -3.0% Treasury 4.0% | 77% moderate-high |
|
Metals
View details
|
|
-1.3 Expensive | -5.0% Fair 95 | +2.5% -18% to +22% | -1.5% Treasury 4.0% | 76% moderate-high |
|
US Equities
View details
|
|
-2.0 Expensive | -7.0% Fair 93 | +4.5% -13% to +17% | +0.5% Treasury 4.0% | 89% high |
Per-asset-class details · select a row to expand
1 China & Hong Kong Equities MCHI · Median fair value 120 Valuation +1.9 Cheap Fair-value gap +20.0% vs market 100 Expected edge +6.5% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 79% moderate-high
VALUATION LENS
China & Hong Kong Equities is cheap
M Market 100
F Fair 120
P25–P75 102–146
MCHI China Broad Market
Last 55.12 · 2026-08-25
equity_fair_value_distribution_v3.0
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · MCHI
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
Fair-value distribution
P0578.0
P1078.0
P25102.0
Median120.0
Mean124.6
P75146.0
P90164.0
P95186.0
Market = 100. Fair-value index is normalized to today's market price and is not a price target.
Forward return range
1 year+10.5%
P10 -20.0% · P25 -2.0% · P75 +23.0% · P90 +32.0%
3Y annualized+8.5%
P10 -6.0% · P25 +2.0% · P75 +14.0% · P90 +18.0%
Expected-return scenarios are separate from today's fair-value estimate.
Historical return context
Long-run Treasury-beat base rate56%
Raw observations173
Effective sample19.9
History2011-03-31 → 2025-07-31
This is the benchmark's unconditional historical base rate, not a probability for today's valuation setup.
Key valuation metrics
Fair-value drivers
- The 10.97x forward P/E is a deep peer-relative discount.
- A 1.47x price/book ratio leaves room for rerating if profitability and policy outcomes stabilize.
Fair-value risks
- Low multiples can persist if growth, governance, policy or earnings-quality risks remain elevated.
- The model therefore uses much wider fair-value dispersion than for developed-market equities.
Representative fair-value scenarios
Bear valuation case78
Lower justified-value case reflecting adverse discount-rate, growth, quality or asset-specific assumptions.
Model weight 20%
Base valuation case120
Central today-equivalent fair-value case from the weighted multi-anchor scenario set.
Model weight 60%
Bull valuation case164
Higher justified-value case reflecting favorable growth, normalization, demand or asset-specific assumptions.
Model weight 20%
Valuation instruments
Only symbols with actual symbol-level valuation outputs are shown. Reference-only context symbols are omitted.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCHIChina Broad Market | proxy | 55.12 | 120 | +1.9 · Cheap | +10.5% |
| FXIChina Large-Cap | proxy | 35.56 | 120 | +1.9 · Cheap | +10.5% |
| KWEBChina Internet Sector | proxy | 26.41 | 120 | +1.9 · Cheap | +10.5% |
| ASHRChina A-Shares | proxy | 34.08 | 120 | +1.9 · Cheap | +10.5% |
| CQQQChina Technology Sector | proxy | 48.14 | 120 | +1.9 · Cheap | +10.5% |
| CHIQChina Consumer Sector | proxy | 17.71 | 120 | +1.9 · Cheap | +10.5% |
| EWHHong Kong Broad Market | proxy | 23.20 | 120 | +1.9 · Cheap | +10.5% |
| 2800.HKHang Seng Index Tracker | proxy | 26.50 | 120 | +1.9 · Cheap | +10.5% |
| 3033.HKHang Seng Technology Index | proxy | 4.670 | 120 | +1.9 · Cheap | +10.5% |
| 3110.HKHong Kong High-Dividend Equity | proxy | 31.94 | 120 | +1.9 · Cheap | +10.5% |
Method & data quality
Wide regional equity scenarios using MSCI China forward P/E, dividend yield and book-value anchors, peer-relative valuation and conservative policy/growth uncertainty.
Limitations: Historical base rate is available, but upstream conditional feature history is insufficient for a publication-grade current-regime probability.; Three Hong Kong-listed supplied symbols have an August 21 snapshot date; the representative MCHI benchmark and recent-price context are current through August 25.
Sources: MSCI
2 Europe Equities VGK · Median fair value 109 Valuation +1.3 Cheap Fair-value gap +9.0% vs market 100 Expected edge +3.5% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 84% high
VALUATION LENS
Europe Equities is cheap
M Market 100
F Fair 109
P25–P75 99–120
VGK Europe Broad Market
Last 93.19 · 2026-08-25
equity_fair_value_distribution_v3.0
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · VGK
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
Fair-value distribution
P0588.0
P1088.0
P2599.0
Median109.0
Mean110.0
P75120.0
P90127.0
P95136.0
Market = 100. Fair-value index is normalized to today's market price and is not a price target.
Forward return range
1 year+7.5%
P10 -11.0% · P25 0.0% · P75 +15.0% · P90 +20.0%
3Y annualized+7.0%
P10 -3.0% · P25 +3.5% · P75 +10.0% · P90 +12.0%
Expected-return scenarios are separate from today's fair-value estimate.
Historical return context
Long-run Treasury-beat base rate62%
Raw observations245
Effective sample27.2
History2005-03-31 → 2025-07-31
This is the benchmark's unconditional historical base rate, not a probability for today's valuation setup.
Key valuation metrics
Fair-value drivers
- A 14.99x forward P/E provides a material valuation discount to U.S. large caps.
- A 2.80% dividend yield improves the current income component of expected return.
Fair-value risks
- The valuation discount may partly reflect lower structural growth and sector mix, so peer convergence is not assumed in full.
- A 4.04% one-year Treasury hurdle raises the opportunity cost of equity risk.
Representative fair-value scenarios
Bear valuation case88
Lower justified-value case reflecting adverse discount-rate, growth, quality or asset-specific assumptions.
Model weight 20%
Base valuation case109
Central today-equivalent fair-value case from the weighted multi-anchor scenario set.
Model weight 60%
Bull valuation case127
Higher justified-value case reflecting favorable growth, normalization, demand or asset-specific assumptions.
Model weight 20%
Valuation instruments
Only symbols with actual symbol-level valuation outputs are shown. Reference-only context symbols are omitted.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGKEurope Broad Market | proxy | 93.19 | 109 | +1.3 · Cheap | +7.5% |
| EZUEurozone Equity Index | proxy | 71.57 | 109 | +1.3 · Cheap | +7.5% |
| EWUUnited Kingdom Index | proxy | 49.39 | 109 | +1.3 · Cheap | +7.5% |
| EWGGermany Index | proxy | 44.45 | 109 | +1.3 · Cheap | +7.5% |
| EWQFrance Index | proxy | 46.91 | 109 | +1.3 · Cheap | +7.5% |
| EWLSwitzerland Index | proxy | 64.70 | 109 | +1.3 · Cheap | +7.5% |
Method & data quality
Weighted regional equity scenarios using MSCI forward P/E, dividend yield and book-value anchors, peer-relative valuation, and current discount-rate opportunity cost.
Limitations: Historical base rate is available, but upstream conditional feature history is insufficient for a publication-grade current-regime probability.
Sources: MSCI
3 Emerging Markets Equities VWO · Median fair value 114 Valuation +1.3 Cheap Fair-value gap +14.0% vs market 100 Expected edge +5.5% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 80% high
VALUATION LENS
Emerging Markets Equities is cheap
M Market 100
F Fair 114
P25–P75 96–136
VWO Emerging Markets Broad Index
Last 60.64 · 2026-08-25
equity_fair_value_distribution_v3.0
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · VWO
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
Fair-value distribution
P0580.0
P1080.0
P2596.0
Median114.0
Mean117.4
P75136.0
P90150.0
P95168.0
Market = 100. Fair-value index is normalized to today's market price and is not a price target.
Forward return range
1 year+9.5%
P10 -18.0% · P25 -1.0% · P75 +22.0% · P90 +30.0%
3Y annualized+8.0%
P10 -5.0% · P25 +3.0% · P75 +13.0% · P90 +16.0%
Expected-return scenarios are separate from today's fair-value estimate.
Historical return context
Long-run Treasury-beat base rate64%
Raw observations245
Effective sample30.7
History2005-03-31 → 2025-07-31
This is the benchmark's unconditional historical base rate, not a probability for today's valuation setup.
Key valuation metrics
Fair-value drivers
- A 10.35x forward P/E creates a substantial developed-market valuation discount.
- A 2.03% dividend yield adds to the earnings-yield valuation cushion.
Fair-value risks
- Country, currency and index-concentration risk justify a wide discount to developed-market valuation anchors.
- A 4.04% U.S. one-year Treasury hurdle remains a demanding alternative for dollar-based investors.
Representative fair-value scenarios
Bear valuation case80
Lower justified-value case reflecting adverse discount-rate, growth, quality or asset-specific assumptions.
Model weight 20%
Base valuation case114
Central today-equivalent fair-value case from the weighted multi-anchor scenario set.
Model weight 60%
Bull valuation case150
Higher justified-value case reflecting favorable growth, normalization, demand or asset-specific assumptions.
Model weight 20%
Valuation instruments
Only symbols with actual symbol-level valuation outputs are shown. Reference-only context symbols are omitted.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VWOEmerging Markets Broad Index | proxy | 60.64 | 114 | +1.3 · Cheap | +9.5% |
| EMXCEmerging Markets Ex-China | proxy | 98.35 | 114 | +1.3 · Cheap | +9.5% |
| INDAIndia Index | proxy | 50.23 | 114 | +1.3 · Cheap | +9.5% |
| EWZBrazil Index | proxy | 35.88 | 114 | +1.3 · Cheap | +9.5% |
| EWTTaiwan Index | proxy | 105.40 | 114 | +1.3 · Cheap | +9.5% |
| EWYSouth Korea Index | proxy | 180.15 | 114 | +1.3 · Cheap | +9.5% |
| EZASouth Africa Index | proxy | 72.51 | 114 | +1.3 · Cheap | +9.5% |
Method & data quality
Wide emerging-markets equity scenarios using MSCI forward P/E, dividend yield and book-value anchors, peer discounts and rate/currency-adjusted justified multiples.
Limitations: Historical base rate is available, but upstream conditional feature history is insufficient for a publication-grade current-regime probability.
Sources: MSCI
4 Fixed Income BND · Median fair value 101 Valuation +0.5 Somewhat cheap Fair-value gap +1.0% vs market 100 Expected edge +0.9% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 91% high
VALUATION LENS
Fixed Income is somewhat cheap
M Market 100
F Fair 101
P25–P75 99–104
BND US Broad Bond Market
Last 72.67 · 2026-08-25
fixed_income_fair_value_distribution_v3.0
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · BND
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
Fair-value distribution
P0596.0
P1096.0
P2598.5
Median101.0
Mean101.3
P75103.5
P90105.5
P95108.0
Market = 100. Fair-value index is normalized to today's market price and is not a price target.
Forward return range
1 year+4.9%
P10 -3.0% · P25 +1.0% · P75 +8.0% · P90 +10.0%
3Y annualized+4.8%
P10 0.0% · P25 +3.0% · P75 +6.2% · P90 +7.0%
Expected-return scenarios are separate from today's fair-value estimate.
Historical return context
Long-run Treasury-beat base rate65%
Raw observations220
Effective sample20.8
History2007-04-30 → 2025-07-31
This is the benchmark's unconditional historical base rate, not a probability for today's valuation setup.
Key valuation metrics
IG option-adjusted spread
0.81 percent
Short supplied history; tight spread
Fair-value drivers
- BND's 4.92% yield to maturity exceeds the 4.04% one-year Treasury hurdle.
- Starting yield provides a relatively observable contractual-return anchor compared with risk assets.
Fair-value risks
- A 5.7-year duration creates meaningful price sensitivity if yields rise further.
- Investment-grade OAS at 0.81% offers limited credit-spread cushion.
Representative fair-value scenarios
Bear valuation case96
Lower justified-value case reflecting adverse discount-rate, growth, quality or asset-specific assumptions.
Model weight 20%
Base valuation case101
Central today-equivalent fair-value case from the weighted multi-anchor scenario set.
Model weight 60%
Bull valuation case106
Higher justified-value case reflecting favorable growth, normalization, demand or asset-specific assumptions.
Model weight 20%
Valuation instruments
Only symbols with actual symbol-level valuation outputs are shown. Reference-only context symbols are omitted.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BNDUS Broad Bond Market | direct | 72.67 | 101 | +0.5 · Somewhat cheap | +4.9% |
| TLTLong-Term US Treasuries | proxy | 83.47 | 101 | +0.5 · Somewhat cheap | +4.9% |
| IEFIntermediate US Treasuries | proxy | 93.51 | 101 | +0.5 · Somewhat cheap | +4.9% |
| SHYShort-Term US Treasuries | proxy | 82.08 | 101 | +0.5 · Somewhat cheap | +4.9% |
| TIPInflation-Protected Treasuries | proxy | 107.64 | 101 | +0.5 · Somewhat cheap | +4.9% |
| LQDInvestment-Grade Corporate Bonds | proxy | 106.86 | 101 | +0.5 · Somewhat cheap | +4.9% |
| HYGHigh-Yield Corporate Bonds | proxy | 79.92 | 101 | +0.5 · Somewhat cheap | +4.9% |
Method & data quality
Bond-price scenarios anchored to BND yield to maturity, duration, Treasury curve and investment-grade credit spreads using yield-shift/duration approximations.
Limitations: Historical base rate is available, but upstream conditional feature history is insufficient for a publication-grade current-regime probability.
Sources: Vanguard · Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
5 Japan Equities EWJ · Median fair value 104 Valuation +0.5 Somewhat cheap Fair-value gap +4.0% vs market 100 Expected edge +2.5% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 84% high
VALUATION LENS
Japan Equities is somewhat cheap
M Market 100
F Fair 104
P25–P75 97–113
EWJ Japan Broad Market
Last 95.63 · 2026-08-25
equity_fair_value_distribution_v3.0
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · EWJ
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
Fair-value distribution
P0588.0
P1088.0
P2597.0
Median104.0
Mean105.1
P75113.0
P90119.0
P95126.0
Market = 100. Fair-value index is normalized to today's market price and is not a price target.
Forward return range
1 year+6.5%
P10 -12.0% · P25 -1.0% · P75 +14.0% · P90 +19.0%
3Y annualized+6.0%
P10 -4.0% · P25 +2.5% · P75 +9.0% · P90 +11.0%
Expected-return scenarios are separate from today's fair-value estimate.
Historical return context
Long-run Treasury-beat base rate57%
Raw observations352
Effective sample37.7
History1996-04-30 → 2025-07-31
This is the benchmark's unconditional historical base rate, not a probability for today's valuation setup.
Key valuation metrics
Fair-value drivers
- Japan's 16.37x forward P/E remains below the U.S. large-cap multiple.
- A moderate 2.01x price/book ratio supports a less demanding central valuation than U.S. equities.
Representative fair-value scenarios
Bear valuation case88
Lower justified-value case reflecting adverse discount-rate, growth, quality or asset-specific assumptions.
Model weight 20%
Base valuation case104
Central today-equivalent fair-value case from the weighted multi-anchor scenario set.
Model weight 60%
Bull valuation case119
Higher justified-value case reflecting favorable growth, normalization, demand or asset-specific assumptions.
Model weight 20%
Valuation instruments
Only symbols with actual symbol-level valuation outputs are shown. Reference-only context symbols are omitted.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EWJJapan Broad Market | proxy | 95.63 | 104 | +0.5 · Somewhat cheap | +6.5% |
| DXJJapan Hedged Equity | proxy | 178.50 | 104 | +0.5 · Somewhat cheap | +6.5% |
| SCJJapan Small-Cap Equity | proxy | 109.11 | 104 | +0.5 · Somewhat cheap | +6.5% |
| EWJVJapan Value Equity | proxy | 47.36 | 104 | +0.5 · Somewhat cheap | +6.5% |
| JPXNJapan JPX-Nikkei 400 | proxy | 102.53 | 104 | +0.5 · Somewhat cheap | +6.5% |
Method & data quality
Weighted regional equity scenarios using MSCI forward P/E, dividend yield and book-value anchors, peer-relative valuation, and rate-adjusted justified multiples.
Limitations: Historical base rate is available, but upstream conditional feature history is insufficient for a publication-grade current-regime probability.
Sources: MSCI
6 Developed Pacific Equities EWA · Median fair value 103 Valuation +0.5 Somewhat cheap Fair-value gap +3.0% vs market 100 Expected edge +2.0% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 82% high
VALUATION LENS
Developed Pacific Equities is somewhat cheap
M Market 100
F Fair 103
P25–P75 95–114
EWA Australia Broad Market
Last 30.43 · 2026-08-25
equity_fair_value_distribution_v3.0
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · EWA
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
Fair-value distribution
P0586.0
P1086.0
P2595.0
Median103.0
Mean105.0
P75114.0
P90121.0
P95130.0
Market = 100. Fair-value index is normalized to today's market price and is not a price target.
Forward return range
1 year+6.0%
P10 -10.0% · P25 0.0% · P75 +13.0% · P90 +18.0%
3Y annualized+6.0%
P10 -3.0% · P25 +3.0% · P75 +9.0% · P90 +11.0%
Expected-return scenarios are separate from today's fair-value estimate.
Historical return context
Long-run Treasury-beat base rate63%
Raw observations352
Effective sample44.3
History1996-04-30 → 2025-07-31
This is the benchmark's unconditional historical base rate, not a probability for today's valuation setup.
Key valuation metrics
Fair-value drivers
- A 3.24% dividend yield provides meaningful income support.
- The 17.69x forward P/E is below the current U.S. large-cap multiple.
Fair-value risks
- A 17.69x forward P/E is not deeply discounted once rate and bank/property sensitivity are considered.
- Regional concentration in financials and property-sensitive markets can amplify discount-rate changes.
Representative fair-value scenarios
Bear valuation case86
Lower justified-value case reflecting adverse discount-rate, growth, quality or asset-specific assumptions.
Model weight 20%
Base valuation case103
Central today-equivalent fair-value case from the weighted multi-anchor scenario set.
Model weight 60%
Bull valuation case121
Higher justified-value case reflecting favorable growth, normalization, demand or asset-specific assumptions.
Model weight 20%
Valuation instruments
Only symbols with actual symbol-level valuation outputs are shown. Reference-only context symbols are omitted.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EWAAustralia Broad Market | proxy | 30.43 | 103 | +0.5 · Somewhat cheap | +6.0% |
| EWSSingapore Broad Market | proxy | 34.24 | 103 | +0.5 · Somewhat cheap | +6.0% |
| ENZLNew Zealand Broad Market | proxy | 49.01 | 103 | +0.5 · Somewhat cheap | +6.0% |
Method & data quality
Weighted developed-Pacific equity scenarios using MSCI Pacific ex-Japan forward P/E, dividend yield and book-value anchors plus peer and rate-adjusted multiple scenarios.
Limitations: Historical base rate is available, but upstream conditional feature history is insufficient for a publication-grade current-regime probability.
Sources: MSCI
7 Crypto BTC-USD · Median fair value 103 Valuation +0.5 Somewhat cheap Fair-value gap +3.0% vs market 100 Expected edge +5.0% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 63% moderate
VALUATION LENS
Crypto is somewhat cheap
M Market 100
F Fair 103
P25–P75 82–132
BTC-USD Bitcoin
Last 78,362.4 · 2026-08-25
crypto_fair_value_distribution_v3.0
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · BTC-USD
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
Fair-value distribution
P0564.0
P1064.0
P2582.0
Median103.0
Mean110.0
P75132.0
P90152.0
P95180.0
Market = 100. Fair-value index is normalized to today's market price and is not a price target.
Forward return range
1 year+9.0%
P10 -38.0% · P25 -10.0% · P75 +40.0% · P90 +65.0%
3Y annualized+10.0%
P10 -10.0% · P25 +2.0% · P75 +22.0% · P90 +30.0%
Expected-return scenarios are separate from today's fair-value estimate.
Key valuation metrics
Fair-value drivers
- Bitcoin MVRV near 1.25x is far from the most extreme on-chain profit multiples seen in prior cycles.
- Realized value provides a measurable on-chain cost-basis anchor even though it is not intrinsic value.
Fair-value risks
- Crypto lacks contractual cash flows, so fair-value estimates are structurally less reliable than for equities or bonds.
- MVRV above 1.0 means the aggregate market is in unrealized profit, leaving downside if realized-value multiples compress.
- The absence of sufficient completed 12-month calibration history prevents a historical Treasury-beat base rate.
Representative fair-value scenarios
Bear valuation case64
Lower justified-value case reflecting adverse discount-rate, growth, quality or asset-specific assumptions.
Model weight 20%
Base valuation case103
Central today-equivalent fair-value case from the weighted multi-anchor scenario set.
Model weight 60%
Bull valuation case152
Higher justified-value case reflecting favorable growth, normalization, demand or asset-specific assumptions.
Model weight 20%
Valuation instruments
Only symbols with actual symbol-level valuation outputs are shown. Reference-only context symbols are omitted.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC-USDBitcoin | direct | 78,362.4 | 103 | +0.5 · Somewhat cheap | +9.0% |
| ETH-USDEthereum | proxy | 2,437.96 | 103 | +0.5 · Somewhat cheap | +9.0% |
| SOL-USDSolana | proxy | 96.76 | 103 | +0.5 · Somewhat cheap | +9.0% |
| XRP-USDXRP | proxy | 1.446 | 103 | +0.5 · Somewhat cheap | +9.0% |
| BNB-USDBNB | proxy | 693.57 | 103 | +0.5 · Somewhat cheap | +9.0% |
Method & data quality
Wide crypto valuation scenarios anchored to Bitcoin MVRV/realized-value economics, network adoption/use and liquidity, with deliberately low model reliability and broad dispersion.
Limitations: Upstream return calibration has insufficient completed 12-month outcomes for a historical base rate.; Crypto fair value has inherently lower model reliability because there are no contractual cash flows.
Sources: Glassnode
8 Real Estate VNQ · Median fair value 99 Valuation -0.5 Somewhat expensive Fair-value gap -1.0% vs market 100 Expected edge +1.5% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 80% high
VALUATION LENS
Real Estate is somewhat expensive
M Market 100
F Fair 99
P25–P75 93–108
VNQ US Real Estate
Last 99.25 · 2026-08-25
reit_fair_value_distribution_v3.0
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · VNQ
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
Fair-value distribution
P0584.0
P1084.0
P2593.0
Median99.0
Mean100.6
P75108.0
P90114.0
P95122.0
Market = 100. Fair-value index is normalized to today's market price and is not a price target.
Forward return range
1 year+5.5%
P10 -12.0% · P25 -1.0% · P75 +13.0% · P90 +18.0%
3Y annualized+6.0%
P10 -4.0% · P25 +2.5% · P75 +9.0% · P90 +11.0%
Expected-return scenarios are separate from today's fair-value estimate.
Historical return context
Long-run Treasury-beat base rate68%
Raw observations251
Effective sample26.0
History2004-09-30 → 2025-07-31
This is the benchmark's unconditional historical base rate, not a probability for today's valuation setup.
Key valuation metrics
Equity REIT dividend yield
3.56 percent
10Y Treasury 4.70%
Fair-value drivers
- Aggregate listed-REIT coverage of 4.67x supports debt-service resilience.
- A 3.56% equity-REIT dividend yield provides a meaningful current cash-distribution component.
Fair-value risks
- The 3.56% equity-REIT dividend yield is below the 4.70% 10-year Treasury yield.
- A 35.4% debt ratio leaves the sector sensitive to refinancing and cap-rate pressure.
Representative fair-value scenarios
Bear valuation case84
Lower justified-value case reflecting adverse discount-rate, growth, quality or asset-specific assumptions.
Model weight 20%
Base valuation case99
Central today-equivalent fair-value case from the weighted multi-anchor scenario set.
Model weight 60%
Bull valuation case114
Higher justified-value case reflecting favorable growth, normalization, demand or asset-specific assumptions.
Model weight 20%
Valuation instruments
Only symbols with actual symbol-level valuation outputs are shown. Reference-only context symbols are omitted.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VNQUS Real Estate | proxy | 99.25 | 99 | -0.5 · Somewhat expensive | +5.5% |
| XLREUS Real Estate Sector | proxy | 45.36 | 99 | -0.5 · Somewhat expensive | +5.5% |
| REETGlobal Real Estate | proxy | 28.23 | 99 | -0.5 · Somewhat expensive | +5.5% |
| REMMortgage Real Estate | proxy | 21.93 | 99 | -0.5 · Somewhat expensive | +5.5% |
| SRVRData Center and Digital REITs | proxy | 32.04 | 99 | -0.5 · Somewhat expensive | +5.5% |
| REZResidential and Specialized REITs | proxy | 96.74 | 99 | -0.5 · Somewhat expensive | +5.5% |
Method & data quality
REIT scenarios using public-REIT dividend yield, leverage/coverage, Treasury opportunity cost and cap-rate/refinancing sensitivity; P/E is not used as the primary anchor.
Limitations: Historical base rate is available, but upstream conditional feature history is insufficient for a publication-grade current-regime probability.
Sources: Nareit · Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
9 Energy USO · Median fair value 93 Valuation -1.3 Expensive Fair-value gap -7.0% vs market 100 Expected edge -3.0% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 77% moderate-high
VALUATION LENS
Energy is expensive
M Market 100
F Fair 93
P25–P75 85–104
USO US Crude Oil
Last 126.15 · 2026-08-25
energy_fair_value_distribution_v3.0
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · USO
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
Fair-value distribution
P0574.0
P1074.0
P2585.0
Median93.0
Mean95.2
P75104.0
P90112.0
P95124.0
Market = 100. Fair-value index is normalized to today's market price and is not a price target.
Forward return range
1 year+1.0%
P10 -24.0% · P25 -8.0% · P75 +14.0% · P90 +24.0%
3Y annualized+2.0%
P10 -7.0% · P25 0.0% · P75 +6.0% · P90 +9.0%
Expected-return scenarios are separate from today's fair-value estimate.
Historical return context
Long-run Treasury-beat base rate44%
Raw observations232
Effective sample44.8
History2006-04-30 → 2025-07-31
This is the benchmark's unconditional historical base rate, not a probability for today's valuation setup.
Key valuation metrics
EIA Q3 Brent forecast
85.0 USD/bbl
Official near-term price-path anchor
EIA 2027 Brent forecast
69.0 USD/bbl
Assumes inventory rebuilding and production recovery
Fair-value drivers
- EIA expects U.S. crude inventories to remain below the five-year low through end-2026.
- Near-term EIA Brent assumptions remain elevated relative to normal pre-disruption levels.
Fair-value risks
- EIA's 2027 Brent forecast falls to $69 as inventories rebuild and production recovers.
- Geopolitical normalization can rapidly remove scarcity premia embedded in current energy prices.
- Commodity ETF roll yield and curve shape can cause benchmark returns to diverge from spot crude.
Representative fair-value scenarios
Bear valuation case74
Lower justified-value case reflecting adverse discount-rate, growth, quality or asset-specific assumptions.
Model weight 20%
Base valuation case93
Central today-equivalent fair-value case from the weighted multi-anchor scenario set.
Model weight 60%
Bull valuation case112
Higher justified-value case reflecting favorable growth, normalization, demand or asset-specific assumptions.
Model weight 20%
Valuation instruments
Only symbols with actual symbol-level valuation outputs are shown. Reference-only context symbols are omitted.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USOUS Crude Oil | proxy | 126.15 | 93 | -1.3 · Expensive | +1.0% |
| BNOBrent Crude Oil | proxy | 50.26 | 93 | -1.3 · Expensive | +1.0% |
| UNGNatural Gas | proxy | 10.23 | 93 | -1.3 · Expensive | +1.0% |
| XLEUS Energy Sector | proxy | 62.06 | 93 | -1.3 · Expensive | +1.0% |
| XOPOil and Gas Producers | proxy | 182.73 | 93 | -1.3 · Expensive | +1.0% |
Method & data quality
Energy scenarios anchored to EIA crude-price and inventory outlooks, with wide geopolitical, demand and futures-curve uncertainty; current ETF price only normalizes the fair-value index.
Limitations: Historical base rate is available, but upstream conditional feature history is insufficient for a publication-grade current-regime probability.
10 Metals GLD · Median fair value 95 Valuation -1.3 Expensive Fair-value gap -5.0% vs market 100 Expected edge -1.5% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 76% moderate-high
VALUATION LENS
Metals is expensive
M Market 100
F Fair 95
P25–P75 87–107
GLD Gold
Last 428.07 · 2026-08-25
metal_fair_value_distribution_v3.0
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · GLD
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
Fair-value distribution
P0576.0
P1076.0
P2587.0
Median95.0
Mean97.9
P75107.0
P90116.0
P95130.0
Market = 100. Fair-value index is normalized to today's market price and is not a price target.
Forward return range
1 year+2.5%
P10 -18.0% · P25 -4.0% · P75 +13.0% · P90 +22.0%
3Y annualized+3.0%
P10 -5.0% · P25 +1.0% · P75 +7.0% · P90 +10.0%
Expected-return scenarios are separate from today's fair-value estimate.
Historical return context
Long-run Treasury-beat base rate66%
Raw observations249
Effective sample28.0
History2004-11-30 → 2025-07-31
This is the benchmark's unconditional historical base rate, not a probability for today's valuation setup.
Key valuation metrics
10Y real yield
2.38 percent
Opportunity cost for non-yielding metals
Fair-value drivers
- Central-bank gold purchases rebounded to 288.9 tonnes in Q2, reinforcing structural official-sector demand.
- Gold supply growth remains constrained enough that demand changes can still have large price effects.
Fair-value risks
- A 2.38% real 10-year yield is a material opportunity-cost headwind for non-yielding metals.
- Gold ETF demand swung to a 44.8-tonne outflow in Q2.
- High absolute gold prices make the central valuation highly sensitive to investment-demand assumptions.
Representative fair-value scenarios
Bear valuation case76
Lower justified-value case reflecting adverse discount-rate, growth, quality or asset-specific assumptions.
Model weight 20%
Base valuation case95
Central today-equivalent fair-value case from the weighted multi-anchor scenario set.
Model weight 60%
Bull valuation case116
Higher justified-value case reflecting favorable growth, normalization, demand or asset-specific assumptions.
Model weight 20%
Valuation instruments
Only symbols with actual symbol-level valuation outputs are shown. Reference-only context symbols are omitted.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GLDGold | proxy | 428.07 | 95 | -1.3 · Expensive | +2.5% |
| SLVSilver | proxy | 62.32 | 95 | -1.3 · Expensive | +2.5% |
| PPLTPlatinum | proxy | 16.86 | 95 | -1.3 · Expensive | +2.5% |
| CPERCopper | proxy | 40.76 | 95 | -1.3 · Expensive | +2.5% |
| DBBBase Metals | proxy | 25.72 | 95 | -1.3 · Expensive | +2.5% |
| GDXGold Miners | proxy | 105.52 | 95 | -1.3 · Expensive | +2.5% |
| PICKGlobal Metals and Mining | proxy | 66.94 | 95 | -1.3 · Expensive | +2.5% |
Method & data quality
Wide metals scenarios combining gold real-yield and demand anchors with industrial-metals supply/demand context; representative benchmark normalization uses GLD.
Limitations: Historical base rate is available, but upstream conditional feature history is insufficient for a publication-grade current-regime probability.
Sources: World Gold Council · Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
11 US Equities SPY · Median fair value 93 Valuation -2.0 Expensive Fair-value gap -7.0% vs market 100 Expected edge +0.5% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 89% high
VALUATION LENS
US Equities is expensive
M Market 100
F Fair 93
P25–P75 87–100
SPY US Large-Cap Index
Last 765.91 · 2026-08-25
equity_fair_value_distribution_v3.0
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · SPY
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
Fair-value distribution
P0578.0
P1078.0
P2587.0
Median93.0
Mean93.3
P75100.0
P90104.0
P95110.0
Market = 100. Fair-value index is normalized to today's market price and is not a price target.
Forward return range
1 year+4.5%
P10 -13.0% · P25 -3.0% · P75 +12.0% · P90 +17.0%
3Y annualized+5.5%
P10 -4.0% · P25 +2.5% · P75 +8.5% · P90 +10.5%
Expected-return scenarios are separate from today's fair-value estimate.
Historical return context
Long-run Treasury-beat base rate80%
Raw observations391
Effective sample31.0
History1993-01-31 → 2025-07-31
This is the benchmark's unconditional historical base rate, not a probability for today's valuation setup.
Key valuation metrics
Forward 12M P/E
20.0 x
5Y average 19.9x; 10Y average 19.0x
CY 2026 earnings growth
30.0 percent
FactSet consensus
Fair-value drivers
- Consensus CY 2026 earnings growth remains unusually strong, supporting forward economic output.
- Forward P/E has eased below its June-quarter endpoint even as earnings estimates rose.
Fair-value risks
- Shiller CAPE is near the top of long-run history, leaving limited valuation cushion if earnings normalization disappoints.
- A 2.38% real 10-year Treasury yield raises discount rates for long-duration cash flows.
- The 20.0x forward P/E still exceeds the 10-year average of 19.0x.
Representative fair-value scenarios
Bear valuation case78
Lower justified-value case reflecting adverse discount-rate, growth, quality or asset-specific assumptions.
Model weight 20%
Base valuation case93
Central today-equivalent fair-value case from the weighted multi-anchor scenario set.
Model weight 60%
Bull valuation case104
Higher justified-value case reflecting favorable growth, normalization, demand or asset-specific assumptions.
Model weight 20%
Valuation instruments
Only symbols with actual symbol-level valuation outputs are shown. Reference-only context symbols are omitted.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPYUS Large-Cap Index | direct | 765.91 | 93 | -2.0 · Expensive | +4.5% |
| QQQUS Technology Index | proxy | 710.72 | 93 | -2.0 · Expensive | +4.5% |
| DIAUS Blue-Chip Index | proxy | 535.24 | 93 | -2.0 · Expensive | +4.5% |
| IWMUS Small-Cap Index | proxy | 299.23 | 93 | -2.0 · Expensive | +4.5% |
| RSPUS Equal-Weight Index | proxy | 221.77 | 93 | -2.0 · Expensive | +4.5% |
| XLFUS Financial Sector | proxy | 58.31 | 93 | -2.0 · Expensive | +4.5% |
| XLIUS Industrial Sector | proxy | 178.40 | 93 | -2.0 · Expensive | +4.5% |
| XLVUS Healthcare Sector | proxy | 175.29 | 93 | -2.0 · Expensive | +4.5% |
| SMHUS Semiconductor Sector | proxy | 555.82 | 93 | -2.0 · Expensive | +4.5% |
Method & data quality
Weighted multi-anchor equity scenarios using current forward earnings valuation, long-run CAPE context, peer/historical multiple normalization, and current nominal/real discount rates.
Limitations: Shiller earnings input is aging relative to the August valuation date; CAPE remains current but earnings detail is not used as a short-horizon forecast.; Current U.S. regime is outside historical support for at least one upstream calibration feature; conditional Treasury-beat probability is withheld.
Sources: Robert J. Shiller · Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Valuation instruments 70
Only instruments with usable valuation outputs are shown. Reference-only context symbols are omitted.
2800.HK
proxy
Hang Seng Index Tracker
China & Hong Kong Equities
Last 26.50
Fair 120
Val. +1.9
1Y +10.5%
Hang Seng Index Tracker is retained as a supplied component. Its fair-value fields use the China & Hong Kong Equities class model as a proxy because no independent symbol-level valuation distribution was constructed.
3033.HK
proxy
Hang Seng Technology Index
China & Hong Kong Equities
Last 4.670
Fair 120
Val. +1.9
1Y +10.5%
Hang Seng Technology Index is retained as a supplied component. Its fair-value fields use the China & Hong Kong Equities class model as a proxy because no independent symbol-level valuation distribution was constructed.
3110.HK
proxy
Hong Kong High-Dividend Equity
China & Hong Kong Equities
Last 31.94
Fair 120
Val. +1.9
1Y +10.5%
Hong Kong High-Dividend Equity is retained as a supplied component. Its fair-value fields use the China & Hong Kong Equities class model as a proxy because no independent symbol-level valuation distribution was constructed.
ASHR
proxy
China A-Shares
China & Hong Kong Equities
Last 34.08
Fair 120
Val. +1.9
1Y +10.5%
China A-Shares is retained as a supplied component. Its fair-value fields use the China & Hong Kong Equities class model as a proxy because no independent symbol-level valuation distribution was constructed.
BNB-USD
proxy
BNB
Crypto
Last 693.57
Fair 103
Val. +0.5
1Y +9.0%
BNB is retained as a supplied component. Its fair-value fields use the Crypto class model as a proxy because no independent symbol-level valuation distribution was constructed.
BND
direct
US Broad Bond Market
Fixed Income
Last 72.67
Fair 101
Val. +0.5
1Y +4.9%
US Broad Bond Market is the representative benchmark used to anchor current market price for Fixed Income. The class-level median fair-value index is 101.0; this is current economic value context, not a price target.
BNO
proxy
Brent Crude Oil
Energy
Last 50.26
Fair 93
Val. -1.3
1Y +1.0%
Brent Crude Oil is retained as a supplied component. Its fair-value fields use the Energy class model as a proxy because no independent symbol-level valuation distribution was constructed.
BTC-USD
direct
Bitcoin
Crypto
Last 78,362.4
Fair 103
Val. +0.5
1Y +9.0%
Bitcoin is the representative benchmark used to anchor current market price for Crypto. The class-level median fair-value index is 103.0; this is current economic value context, not a price target.
CHIQ
proxy
China Consumer Sector
China & Hong Kong Equities
Last 17.71
Fair 120
Val. +1.9
1Y +10.5%
China Consumer Sector is retained as a supplied component. Its fair-value fields use the China & Hong Kong Equities class model as a proxy because no independent symbol-level valuation distribution was constructed.
CPER
proxy
Copper
Metals
Last 40.76
Fair 95
Val. -1.3
1Y +2.5%
Copper is retained as a supplied component. Its fair-value fields use the Metals class model as a proxy because no independent symbol-level valuation distribution was constructed.
CQQQ
proxy
China Technology Sector
China & Hong Kong Equities
Last 48.14
Fair 120
Val. +1.9
1Y +10.5%
China Technology Sector is retained as a supplied component. Its fair-value fields use the China & Hong Kong Equities class model as a proxy because no independent symbol-level valuation distribution was constructed.
DBB
proxy
Base Metals
Metals
Last 25.72
Fair 95
Val. -1.3
1Y +2.5%
Base Metals is retained as a supplied component. Its fair-value fields use the Metals class model as a proxy because no independent symbol-level valuation distribution was constructed.
DIA
proxy
US Blue-Chip Index
US Equities
Last 535.24
Fair 93
Val. -2.0
1Y +4.5%
US Blue-Chip Index is retained as a supplied component. Its fair-value fields use the US Equities class model as a proxy because no independent symbol-level valuation distribution was constructed.
DXJ
proxy
Japan Hedged Equity
Japan Equities
Last 178.50
Fair 104
Val. +0.5
1Y +6.5%
Japan Hedged Equity is retained as a supplied component. Its fair-value fields use the Japan Equities class model as a proxy because no independent symbol-level valuation distribution was constructed.
EMXC
proxy
Emerging Markets Ex-China
Emerging Markets Equities
Last 98.35
Fair 114
Val. +1.3
1Y +9.5%
Emerging Markets Ex-China is retained as a supplied component. Its fair-value fields use the Emerging Markets Equities class model as a proxy because no independent symbol-level valuation distribution was constructed.
ENZL
proxy
New Zealand Broad Market
Developed Pacific Equities
Last 49.01
Fair 103
Val. +0.5
1Y +6.0%
New Zealand Broad Market is retained as a supplied component. Its fair-value fields use the Developed Pacific Equities class model as a proxy because no independent symbol-level valuation distribution was constructed.
ETH-USD
proxy
Ethereum
Crypto
Last 2,437.96
Fair 103
Val. +0.5
1Y +9.0%
Ethereum is retained as a supplied component. Its fair-value fields use the Crypto class model as a proxy because no independent symbol-level valuation distribution was constructed.
EWA
proxy
Australia Broad Market
Developed Pacific Equities
Last 30.43
Fair 103
Val. +0.5
1Y +6.0%
Australia Broad Market is the representative benchmark used to anchor current market price for Developed Pacific Equities. The class-level median fair-value index is 103.0; this is current economic value context, not a price target.
EWG
proxy
Germany Index
Europe Equities
Last 44.45
Fair 109
Val. +1.3
1Y +7.5%
Germany Index is retained as a supplied component. Its fair-value fields use the Europe Equities class model as a proxy because no independent symbol-level valuation distribution was constructed.
EWH
proxy
Hong Kong Broad Market
China & Hong Kong Equities
Last 23.20
Fair 120
Val. +1.9
1Y +10.5%
Hong Kong Broad Market is retained as a supplied component. Its fair-value fields use the China & Hong Kong Equities class model as a proxy because no independent symbol-level valuation distribution was constructed.
EWJ
proxy
Japan Broad Market
Japan Equities
Last 95.63
Fair 104
Val. +0.5
1Y +6.5%
Japan Broad Market is the representative benchmark used to anchor current market price for Japan Equities. The class-level median fair-value index is 104.0; this is current economic value context, not a price target.
EWJV
proxy
Japan Value Equity
Japan Equities
Last 47.36
Fair 104
Val. +0.5
1Y +6.5%
Japan Value Equity is retained as a supplied component. Its fair-value fields use the Japan Equities class model as a proxy because no independent symbol-level valuation distribution was constructed.
EWL
proxy
Switzerland Index
Europe Equities
Last 64.70
Fair 109
Val. +1.3
1Y +7.5%
Switzerland Index is retained as a supplied component. Its fair-value fields use the Europe Equities class model as a proxy because no independent symbol-level valuation distribution was constructed.
EWQ
proxy
France Index
Europe Equities
Last 46.91
Fair 109
Val. +1.3
1Y +7.5%
France Index is retained as a supplied component. Its fair-value fields use the Europe Equities class model as a proxy because no independent symbol-level valuation distribution was constructed.
EWS
proxy
Singapore Broad Market
Developed Pacific Equities
Last 34.24
Fair 103
Val. +0.5
1Y +6.0%
Singapore Broad Market is retained as a supplied component. Its fair-value fields use the Developed Pacific Equities class model as a proxy because no independent symbol-level valuation distribution was constructed.
EWT
proxy
Taiwan Index
Emerging Markets Equities
Last 105.40
Fair 114
Val. +1.3
1Y +9.5%
Taiwan Index is retained as a supplied component. Its fair-value fields use the Emerging Markets Equities class model as a proxy because no independent symbol-level valuation distribution was constructed.
EWU
proxy
United Kingdom Index
Europe Equities
Last 49.39
Fair 109
Val. +1.3
1Y +7.5%
United Kingdom Index is retained as a supplied component. Its fair-value fields use the Europe Equities class model as a proxy because no independent symbol-level valuation distribution was constructed.
EWY
proxy
South Korea Index
Emerging Markets Equities
Last 180.15
Fair 114
Val. +1.3
1Y +9.5%
South Korea Index is retained as a supplied component. Its fair-value fields use the Emerging Markets Equities class model as a proxy because no independent symbol-level valuation distribution was constructed.
EWZ
proxy
Brazil Index
Emerging Markets Equities
Last 35.88
Fair 114
Val. +1.3
1Y +9.5%
Brazil Index is retained as a supplied component. Its fair-value fields use the Emerging Markets Equities class model as a proxy because no independent symbol-level valuation distribution was constructed.
EZA
proxy
South Africa Index
Emerging Markets Equities
Last 72.51
Fair 114
Val. +1.3
1Y +9.5%
South Africa Index is retained as a supplied component. Its fair-value fields use the Emerging Markets Equities class model as a proxy because no independent symbol-level valuation distribution was constructed.
EZU
proxy
Eurozone Equity Index
Europe Equities
Last 71.57
Fair 109
Val. +1.3
1Y +7.5%
Eurozone Equity Index is retained as a supplied component. Its fair-value fields use the Europe Equities class model as a proxy because no independent symbol-level valuation distribution was constructed.
FXI
proxy
China Large-Cap
China & Hong Kong Equities
Last 35.56
Fair 120
Val. +1.9
1Y +10.5%
China Large-Cap is retained as a supplied component. Its fair-value fields use the China & Hong Kong Equities class model as a proxy because no independent symbol-level valuation distribution was constructed.
GDX
proxy
Gold Miners
Metals
Last 105.52
Fair 95
Val. -1.3
1Y +2.5%
Gold Miners is retained as a supplied component. Its fair-value fields use the Metals class model as a proxy because no independent symbol-level valuation distribution was constructed.
GLD
proxy
Gold
Metals
Last 428.07
Fair 95
Val. -1.3
1Y +2.5%
Gold is the representative benchmark used to anchor current market price for Metals. The class-level median fair-value index is 95.0; this is current economic value context, not a price target.
HYG
proxy
High-Yield Corporate Bonds
Fixed Income
Last 79.92
Fair 101
Val. +0.5
1Y +4.9%
High-Yield Corporate Bonds is retained as a supplied component. Its fair-value fields use the Fixed Income class model as a proxy because no independent symbol-level valuation distribution was constructed.
IEF
proxy
Intermediate US Treasuries
Fixed Income
Last 93.51
Fair 101
Val. +0.5
1Y +4.9%
Intermediate US Treasuries is retained as a supplied component. Its fair-value fields use the Fixed Income class model as a proxy because no independent symbol-level valuation distribution was constructed.
INDA
proxy
India Index
Emerging Markets Equities
Last 50.23
Fair 114
Val. +1.3
1Y +9.5%
India Index is retained as a supplied component. Its fair-value fields use the Emerging Markets Equities class model as a proxy because no independent symbol-level valuation distribution was constructed.
IWM
proxy
US Small-Cap Index
US Equities
Last 299.23
Fair 93
Val. -2.0
1Y +4.5%
US Small-Cap Index is retained as a supplied component. Its fair-value fields use the US Equities class model as a proxy because no independent symbol-level valuation distribution was constructed.
JPXN
proxy
Japan JPX-Nikkei 400
Japan Equities
Last 102.53
Fair 104
Val. +0.5
1Y +6.5%
Japan JPX-Nikkei 400 is retained as a supplied component. Its fair-value fields use the Japan Equities class model as a proxy because no independent symbol-level valuation distribution was constructed.
KWEB
proxy
China Internet Sector
China & Hong Kong Equities
Last 26.41
Fair 120
Val. +1.9
1Y +10.5%
China Internet Sector is retained as a supplied component. Its fair-value fields use the China & Hong Kong Equities class model as a proxy because no independent symbol-level valuation distribution was constructed.
LQD
proxy
Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds
Fixed Income
Last 106.86
Fair 101
Val. +0.5
1Y +4.9%
Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds is retained as a supplied component. Its fair-value fields use the Fixed Income class model as a proxy because no independent symbol-level valuation distribution was constructed.
MCHI
proxy
China Broad Market
China & Hong Kong Equities
Last 55.12
Fair 120
Val. +1.9
1Y +10.5%
China Broad Market is the representative benchmark used to anchor current market price for China & Hong Kong Equities. The class-level median fair-value index is 120.0; this is current economic value context, not a price target.
PICK
proxy
Global Metals and Mining
Metals
Last 66.94
Fair 95
Val. -1.3
1Y +2.5%
Global Metals and Mining is retained as a supplied component. Its fair-value fields use the Metals class model as a proxy because no independent symbol-level valuation distribution was constructed.
PPLT
proxy
Platinum
Metals
Last 16.86
Fair 95
Val. -1.3
1Y +2.5%
Platinum is retained as a supplied component. Its fair-value fields use the Metals class model as a proxy because no independent symbol-level valuation distribution was constructed.
QQQ
proxy
US Technology Index
US Equities
Last 710.72
Fair 93
Val. -2.0
1Y +4.5%
US Technology Index is retained as a supplied component. Its fair-value fields use the US Equities class model as a proxy because no independent symbol-level valuation distribution was constructed.
REET
proxy
Global Real Estate
Real Estate
Last 28.23
Fair 99
Val. -0.5
1Y +5.5%
Global Real Estate is retained as a supplied component. Its fair-value fields use the Real Estate class model as a proxy because no independent symbol-level valuation distribution was constructed.
REM
proxy
Mortgage Real Estate
Real Estate
Last 21.93
Fair 99
Val. -0.5
1Y +5.5%
Mortgage Real Estate is retained as a supplied component. Its fair-value fields use the Real Estate class model as a proxy because no independent symbol-level valuation distribution was constructed.
REZ
proxy
Residential and Specialized REITs
Real Estate
Last 96.74
Fair 99
Val. -0.5
1Y +5.5%
Residential and Specialized REITs is retained as a supplied component. Its fair-value fields use the Real Estate class model as a proxy because no independent symbol-level valuation distribution was constructed.
RSP
proxy
US Equal-Weight Index
US Equities
Last 221.77
Fair 93
Val. -2.0
1Y +4.5%
US Equal-Weight Index is retained as a supplied component. Its fair-value fields use the US Equities class model as a proxy because no independent symbol-level valuation distribution was constructed.
SCJ
proxy
Japan Small-Cap Equity
Japan Equities
Last 109.11
Fair 104
Val. +0.5
1Y +6.5%
Japan Small-Cap Equity is retained as a supplied component. Its fair-value fields use the Japan Equities class model as a proxy because no independent symbol-level valuation distribution was constructed.
SHY
proxy
Short-Term US Treasuries
Fixed Income
Last 82.08
Fair 101
Val. +0.5
1Y +4.9%
Short-Term US Treasuries is retained as a supplied component. Its fair-value fields use the Fixed Income class model as a proxy because no independent symbol-level valuation distribution was constructed.
SLV
proxy
Silver
Metals
Last 62.32
Fair 95
Val. -1.3
1Y +2.5%
Silver is retained as a supplied component. Its fair-value fields use the Metals class model as a proxy because no independent symbol-level valuation distribution was constructed.
SMH
proxy
US Semiconductor Sector
US Equities
Last 555.82
Fair 93
Val. -2.0
1Y +4.5%
US Semiconductor Sector is retained as a supplied component. Its fair-value fields use the US Equities class model as a proxy because no independent symbol-level valuation distribution was constructed.
SOL-USD
proxy
Solana
Crypto
Last 96.76
Fair 103
Val. +0.5
1Y +9.0%
Solana is retained as a supplied component. Its fair-value fields use the Crypto class model as a proxy because no independent symbol-level valuation distribution was constructed.
SPY
direct
US Large-Cap Index
US Equities
Last 765.91
Fair 93
Val. -2.0
1Y +4.5%
US Large-Cap Index is the representative benchmark used to anchor current market price for US Equities. The class-level median fair-value index is 93.0; this is current economic value context, not a price target.
SRVR
proxy
Data Center and Digital REITs
Real Estate
Last 32.04
Fair 99
Val. -0.5
1Y +5.5%
Data Center and Digital REITs is retained as a supplied component. Its fair-value fields use the Real Estate class model as a proxy because no independent symbol-level valuation distribution was constructed.
TIP
proxy
Inflation-Protected Treasuries
Fixed Income
Last 107.64
Fair 101
Val. +0.5
1Y +4.9%
Inflation-Protected Treasuries is retained as a supplied component. Its fair-value fields use the Fixed Income class model as a proxy because no independent symbol-level valuation distribution was constructed.
TLT
proxy
Long-Term US Treasuries
Fixed Income
Last 83.47
Fair 101
Val. +0.5
1Y +4.9%
Long-Term US Treasuries is retained as a supplied component. Its fair-value fields use the Fixed Income class model as a proxy because no independent symbol-level valuation distribution was constructed.
UNG
proxy
Natural Gas
Energy
Last 10.23
Fair 93
Val. -1.3
1Y +1.0%
Natural Gas is retained as a supplied component. Its fair-value fields use the Energy class model as a proxy because no independent symbol-level valuation distribution was constructed.
USO
proxy
US Crude Oil
Energy
Last 126.15
Fair 93
Val. -1.3
1Y +1.0%
US Crude Oil is the representative benchmark used to anchor current market price for Energy. The class-level median fair-value index is 93.0; this is current economic value context, not a price target.
VGK
proxy
Europe Broad Market
Europe Equities
Last 93.19
Fair 109
Val. +1.3
1Y +7.5%
Europe Broad Market is the representative benchmark used to anchor current market price for Europe Equities. The class-level median fair-value index is 109.0; this is current economic value context, not a price target.
VNQ
proxy
US Real Estate
Real Estate
Last 99.25
Fair 99
Val. -0.5
1Y +5.5%
US Real Estate is the representative benchmark used to anchor current market price for Real Estate. The class-level median fair-value index is 99.0; this is current economic value context, not a price target.
VWO
proxy
Emerging Markets Broad Index
Emerging Markets Equities
Last 60.64
Fair 114
Val. +1.3
1Y +9.5%
Emerging Markets Broad Index is the representative benchmark used to anchor current market price for Emerging Markets Equities. The class-level median fair-value index is 114.0; this is current economic value context, not a price target.
XLE
proxy
US Energy Sector
Energy
Last 62.06
Fair 93
Val. -1.3
1Y +1.0%
US Energy Sector is retained as a supplied component. Its fair-value fields use the Energy class model as a proxy because no independent symbol-level valuation distribution was constructed.
XLF
proxy
US Financial Sector
US Equities
Last 58.31
Fair 93
Val. -2.0
1Y +4.5%
US Financial Sector is retained as a supplied component. Its fair-value fields use the US Equities class model as a proxy because no independent symbol-level valuation distribution was constructed.
XLI
proxy
US Industrial Sector
US Equities
Last 178.40
Fair 93
Val. -2.0
1Y +4.5%
US Industrial Sector is retained as a supplied component. Its fair-value fields use the US Equities class model as a proxy because no independent symbol-level valuation distribution was constructed.
XLRE
proxy
US Real Estate Sector
Real Estate
Last 45.36
Fair 99
Val. -0.5
1Y +5.5%
US Real Estate Sector is retained as a supplied component. Its fair-value fields use the Real Estate class model as a proxy because no independent symbol-level valuation distribution was constructed.
XLV
proxy
US Healthcare Sector
US Equities
Last 175.29
Fair 93
Val. -2.0
1Y +4.5%
US Healthcare Sector is retained as a supplied component. Its fair-value fields use the US Equities class model as a proxy because no independent symbol-level valuation distribution was constructed.
XOP
proxy
Oil and Gas Producers
Energy
Last 182.73
Fair 93
Val. -1.3
1Y +1.0%
Oil and Gas Producers is retained as a supplied component. Its fair-value fields use the Energy class model as a proxy because no independent symbol-level valuation distribution was constructed.
XRP-USD
proxy
XRP
Crypto
Last 1.446
Fair 103
Val. +0.5
1Y +9.0%
XRP is retained as a supplied component. Its fair-value fields use the Crypto class model as a proxy because no independent symbol-level valuation distribution was constructed.
×
VALUATION INTELLIGENCE
China & Hong Kong Equities
MCHI · China Broad Market
VALUATION
+1.9
Cheap
MODELED FAIR VALUE TODAY
Market = 100 · Median fair value = 120
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
M Market
F Median fair value
P25–P75 central range
M Market 100
F Fair 120
P25–P75 102–146
PRICE WHAT-IF · MCHI
What would valuation look like at a different market price?
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
MODELED MEDIAN FAIR VALUE TODAY
$66.14
Central P25–P75: $56.22–$80.48
Current: $55.12
WHAT-IF VALUATION——
PRICE INDEX—Current market = 100
FAIR-VALUE GAP—To median fair value
PRICE PERCENTILE—Within fair-value distribution
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · MCHI
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
What-If price
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
FAIR-VALUE GAP
+20.0%
Median fair value vs market
1Y EXPECTED RETURN
+10.5%
P10–P90 -20% to +32%
EDGE VS 1Y TREASURY
+6.5%
Treasury 4.0%
LONG-RUN BEAT RATE
56%
Historical base rate · not today's conditional probability
VALUATION CONFIDENCE
79%
moderate-high
WHAT SUPPORTS FAIR VALUE
- The 10.97x forward P/E is a deep peer-relative discount.
- A 1.47x price/book ratio leaves room for rerating if profitability and policy outcomes stabilize.
WHAT COULD BREAK THE THESIS
- Low multiples can persist if growth, governance, policy or earnings-quality risks remain elevated.
- The model therefore uses much wider fair-value dispersion than for developed-market equities.
Forward P/E
11.0 x
Well below S&P 500 20.0x
Dividend yield
2.26 percent
Regional income anchor
Price/book
1.47 x
Low book-value multiple
×
VALUATION INTELLIGENCE
Europe Equities
VGK · Europe Broad Market
VALUATION
+1.3
Cheap
MODELED FAIR VALUE TODAY
Market = 100 · Median fair value = 109
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
M Market
F Median fair value
P25–P75 central range
M Market 100
F Fair 109
P25–P75 99–120
PRICE WHAT-IF · VGK
What would valuation look like at a different market price?
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
MODELED MEDIAN FAIR VALUE TODAY
$101.58
Central P25–P75: $92.26–$111.83
Current: $93.19
WHAT-IF VALUATION——
PRICE INDEX—Current market = 100
FAIR-VALUE GAP—To median fair value
PRICE PERCENTILE—Within fair-value distribution
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · VGK
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
What-If price
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
FAIR-VALUE GAP
+9.0%
Median fair value vs market
1Y EXPECTED RETURN
+7.5%
P10–P90 -11% to +20%
EDGE VS 1Y TREASURY
+3.5%
Treasury 4.0%
LONG-RUN BEAT RATE
62%
Historical base rate · not today's conditional probability
VALUATION CONFIDENCE
84%
high
WHAT SUPPORTS FAIR VALUE
- A 14.99x forward P/E provides a material valuation discount to U.S. large caps.
- A 2.80% dividend yield improves the current income component of expected return.
WHAT COULD BREAK THE THESIS
- The valuation discount may partly reflect lower structural growth and sector mix, so peer convergence is not assumed in full.
- A 4.04% one-year Treasury hurdle raises the opportunity cost of equity risk.
Forward P/E
15.0 x
Below S&P 500 20.0x
Dividend yield
2.80 percent
Regional income anchor
Price/book
2.52 x
Quality-sensitive valuation anchor
×
VALUATION INTELLIGENCE
Emerging Markets Equities
VWO · Emerging Markets Broad Index
VALUATION
+1.3
Cheap
MODELED FAIR VALUE TODAY
Market = 100 · Median fair value = 114
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
M Market
F Median fair value
P25–P75 central range
M Market 100
F Fair 114
P25–P75 96–136
PRICE WHAT-IF · VWO
What would valuation look like at a different market price?
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
MODELED MEDIAN FAIR VALUE TODAY
$69.13
Central P25–P75: $58.21–$82.47
Current: $60.64
WHAT-IF VALUATION——
PRICE INDEX—Current market = 100
FAIR-VALUE GAP—To median fair value
PRICE PERCENTILE—Within fair-value distribution
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · VWO
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
What-If price
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
FAIR-VALUE GAP
+14.0%
Median fair value vs market
1Y EXPECTED RETURN
+9.5%
P10–P90 -18% to +30%
EDGE VS 1Y TREASURY
+5.5%
Treasury 4.0%
LONG-RUN BEAT RATE
64%
Historical base rate · not today's conditional probability
VALUATION CONFIDENCE
80%
high
WHAT SUPPORTS FAIR VALUE
- A 10.35x forward P/E creates a substantial developed-market valuation discount.
- A 2.03% dividend yield adds to the earnings-yield valuation cushion.
WHAT COULD BREAK THE THESIS
- Country, currency and index-concentration risk justify a wide discount to developed-market valuation anchors.
- A 4.04% U.S. one-year Treasury hurdle remains a demanding alternative for dollar-based investors.
Forward P/E
10.3 x
Well below S&P 500 20.0x
Dividend yield
2.03 percent
Regional income anchor
Price/book
2.45 x
Quality-sensitive valuation anchor
×
VALUATION INTELLIGENCE
Fixed Income
BND · US Broad Bond Market
VALUATION
+0.5
Somewhat cheap
MODELED FAIR VALUE TODAY
Market = 100 · Median fair value = 101
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
M Market
F Median fair value
P25–P75 central range
M Market 100
F Fair 101
P25–P75 99–104
PRICE WHAT-IF · BND
What would valuation look like at a different market price?
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
MODELED MEDIAN FAIR VALUE TODAY
$73.40
Central P25–P75: $71.58–$75.21
Current: $72.67
WHAT-IF VALUATION——
PRICE INDEX—Current market = 100
FAIR-VALUE GAP—To median fair value
PRICE PERCENTILE—Within fair-value distribution
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · BND
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
What-If price
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
FAIR-VALUE GAP
+1.0%
Median fair value vs market
1Y EXPECTED RETURN
+4.9%
P10–P90 -3% to +10%
EDGE VS 1Y TREASURY
+0.9%
Treasury 4.0%
LONG-RUN BEAT RATE
65%
Historical base rate · not today's conditional probability
VALUATION CONFIDENCE
91%
high
WHAT SUPPORTS FAIR VALUE
- BND's 4.92% yield to maturity exceeds the 4.04% one-year Treasury hurdle.
- Starting yield provides a relatively observable contractual-return anchor compared with risk assets.
WHAT COULD BREAK THE THESIS
- A 5.7-year duration creates meaningful price sensitivity if yields rise further.
- Investment-grade OAS at 0.81% offers limited credit-spread cushion.
BND yield to maturity
4.92 percent
1Y Treasury 4.04%
BND 30-day SEC yield
4.67 percent
Current income anchor
Average duration
5.70 years
Intermediate-rate sensitivity
×
VALUATION INTELLIGENCE
Japan Equities
EWJ · Japan Broad Market
VALUATION
+0.5
Somewhat cheap
MODELED FAIR VALUE TODAY
Market = 100 · Median fair value = 104
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
M Market
F Median fair value
P25–P75 central range
M Market 100
F Fair 104
P25–P75 97–113
PRICE WHAT-IF · EWJ
What would valuation look like at a different market price?
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
MODELED MEDIAN FAIR VALUE TODAY
$99.46
Central P25–P75: $92.76–$108.06
Current: $95.63
WHAT-IF VALUATION——
PRICE INDEX—Current market = 100
FAIR-VALUE GAP—To median fair value
PRICE PERCENTILE—Within fair-value distribution
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · EWJ
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
What-If price
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
FAIR-VALUE GAP
+4.0%
Median fair value vs market
1Y EXPECTED RETURN
+6.5%
P10–P90 -12% to +19%
EDGE VS 1Y TREASURY
+2.5%
Treasury 4.0%
LONG-RUN BEAT RATE
57%
Historical base rate · not today's conditional probability
VALUATION CONFIDENCE
84%
high
WHAT SUPPORTS FAIR VALUE
- Japan's 16.37x forward P/E remains below the U.S. large-cap multiple.
- A moderate 2.01x price/book ratio supports a less demanding central valuation than U.S. equities.
WHAT COULD BREAK THE THESIS
- Rate normalization and currency exposure can change justified multiples even when headline P/E is moderate.
- The 1.78% dividend yield offers less income cushion than several other non-U.S. regions.
Forward P/E
16.4 x
Below S&P 500 20.0x
Dividend yield
1.78 percent
Regional income anchor
Price/book
2.01 x
Quality-sensitive valuation anchor
×
VALUATION INTELLIGENCE
Developed Pacific Equities
EWA · Australia Broad Market
VALUATION
+0.5
Somewhat cheap
MODELED FAIR VALUE TODAY
Market = 100 · Median fair value = 103
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
M Market
F Median fair value
P25–P75 central range
M Market 100
F Fair 103
P25–P75 95–114
PRICE WHAT-IF · EWA
What would valuation look like at a different market price?
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
MODELED MEDIAN FAIR VALUE TODAY
$31.34
Central P25–P75: $28.91–$34.69
Current: $30.43
WHAT-IF VALUATION——
PRICE INDEX—Current market = 100
FAIR-VALUE GAP—To median fair value
PRICE PERCENTILE—Within fair-value distribution
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · EWA
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
What-If price
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
FAIR-VALUE GAP
+3.0%
Median fair value vs market
1Y EXPECTED RETURN
+6.0%
P10–P90 -10% to +18%
EDGE VS 1Y TREASURY
+2.0%
Treasury 4.0%
LONG-RUN BEAT RATE
63%
Historical base rate · not today's conditional probability
VALUATION CONFIDENCE
82%
high
WHAT SUPPORTS FAIR VALUE
- A 3.24% dividend yield provides meaningful income support.
- The 17.69x forward P/E is below the current U.S. large-cap multiple.
WHAT COULD BREAK THE THESIS
- A 17.69x forward P/E is not deeply discounted once rate and bank/property sensitivity are considered.
- Regional concentration in financials and property-sensitive markets can amplify discount-rate changes.
Forward P/E
17.7 x
Below S&P 500 20.0x
Dividend yield
3.24 percent
High regional income anchor
Price/book
2.22 x
Quality-sensitive valuation anchor
×
VALUATION INTELLIGENCE
Crypto
BTC-USD · Bitcoin
VALUATION
+0.5
Somewhat cheap
MODELED FAIR VALUE TODAY
Market = 100 · Median fair value = 103
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
M Market
F Median fair value
P25–P75 central range
M Market 100
F Fair 103
P25–P75 82–132
PRICE WHAT-IF · BTC-USD
What would valuation look like at a different market price?
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
MODELED MEDIAN FAIR VALUE TODAY
$80,713.27
Central P25–P75: $64,257.17–$103,438.37
Current: $78,362.4
WHAT-IF VALUATION——
PRICE INDEX—Current market = 100
FAIR-VALUE GAP—To median fair value
PRICE PERCENTILE—Within fair-value distribution
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · BTC-USD
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
What-If price
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
FAIR-VALUE GAP
+3.0%
Median fair value vs market
1Y EXPECTED RETURN
+9.0%
P10–P90 -38% to +65%
EDGE VS 1Y TREASURY
+5.0%
Treasury 4.0%
HISTORICAL CALIBRATION
—
Insufficient decision-grade history
VALUATION CONFIDENCE
63%
moderate
WHAT SUPPORTS FAIR VALUE
- Bitcoin MVRV near 1.25x is far from the most extreme on-chain profit multiples seen in prior cycles.
- Realized value provides a measurable on-chain cost-basis anchor even though it is not intrinsic value.
WHAT COULD BREAK THE THESIS
- Crypto lacks contractual cash flows, so fair-value estimates are structurally less reliable than for equities or bonds.
- MVRV above 1.0 means the aggregate market is in unrealized profit, leaving downside if realized-value multiples compress.
Bitcoin MVRV
1.25 x
Aggregate market value / realized value
Realized-value ratio
0.80 ratio
Derived from MVRV
1Y Treasury hurdle
4.04 percent
Investment-basis opportunity cost
×
VALUATION INTELLIGENCE
Real Estate
VNQ · US Real Estate
VALUATION
-0.5
Somewhat expensive
MODELED FAIR VALUE TODAY
Market = 100 · Median fair value = 99
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
M Market
F Median fair value
P25–P75 central range
M Market 100
F Fair 99
P25–P75 93–108
PRICE WHAT-IF · VNQ
What would valuation look like at a different market price?
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
MODELED MEDIAN FAIR VALUE TODAY
$98.26
Central P25–P75: $92.30–$107.19
Current: $99.25
WHAT-IF VALUATION——
PRICE INDEX—Current market = 100
FAIR-VALUE GAP—To median fair value
PRICE PERCENTILE—Within fair-value distribution
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · VNQ
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
What-If price
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
FAIR-VALUE GAP
-1.0%
Median fair value vs market
1Y EXPECTED RETURN
+5.5%
P10–P90 -12% to +18%
EDGE VS 1Y TREASURY
+1.5%
Treasury 4.0%
LONG-RUN BEAT RATE
68%
Historical base rate · not today's conditional probability
VALUATION CONFIDENCE
80%
high
WHAT SUPPORTS FAIR VALUE
- Aggregate listed-REIT coverage of 4.67x supports debt-service resilience.
- A 3.56% equity-REIT dividend yield provides a meaningful current cash-distribution component.
WHAT COULD BREAK THE THESIS
- The 3.56% equity-REIT dividend yield is below the 4.70% 10-year Treasury yield.
- A 35.4% debt ratio leaves the sector sensitive to refinancing and cap-rate pressure.
Equity REIT dividend yield
3.56 percent
10Y Treasury 4.70%
Debt ratio
35.4 percent
Listed U.S. REIT aggregate
Coverage ratio
4.67 x
Listed U.S. REIT aggregate
×
VALUATION INTELLIGENCE
Energy
USO · US Crude Oil
VALUATION
-1.3
Expensive
MODELED FAIR VALUE TODAY
Market = 100 · Median fair value = 93
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
M Market
F Median fair value
P25–P75 central range
M Market 100
F Fair 93
P25–P75 85–104
PRICE WHAT-IF · USO
What would valuation look like at a different market price?
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
MODELED MEDIAN FAIR VALUE TODAY
$117.32
Central P25–P75: $107.23–$131.20
Current: $126.15
WHAT-IF VALUATION——
PRICE INDEX—Current market = 100
FAIR-VALUE GAP—To median fair value
PRICE PERCENTILE—Within fair-value distribution
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · USO
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
What-If price
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
FAIR-VALUE GAP
-7.0%
Median fair value vs market
1Y EXPECTED RETURN
+1.0%
P10–P90 -24% to +24%
EDGE VS 1Y TREASURY
-3.0%
Treasury 4.0%
LONG-RUN BEAT RATE
44%
Historical base rate · not today's conditional probability
VALUATION CONFIDENCE
77%
moderate-high
WHAT SUPPORTS FAIR VALUE
- EIA expects U.S. crude inventories to remain below the five-year low through end-2026.
- Near-term EIA Brent assumptions remain elevated relative to normal pre-disruption levels.
WHAT COULD BREAK THE THESIS
- EIA's 2027 Brent forecast falls to $69 as inventories rebuild and production recovers.
- Geopolitical normalization can rapidly remove scarcity premia embedded in current energy prices.
EIA Q3 Brent forecast
85.0 USD/bbl
Official near-term price-path anchor
EIA 2027 Brent forecast
69.0 USD/bbl
Assumes inventory rebuilding and production recovery
1Y Treasury hurdle
4.04 percent
Investment-basis opportunity cost
×
VALUATION INTELLIGENCE
Metals
GLD · Gold
VALUATION
-1.3
Expensive
MODELED FAIR VALUE TODAY
Market = 100 · Median fair value = 95
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
M Market
F Median fair value
P25–P75 central range
M Market 100
F Fair 95
P25–P75 87–107
PRICE WHAT-IF · GLD
What would valuation look like at a different market price?
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
MODELED MEDIAN FAIR VALUE TODAY
$406.67
Central P25–P75: $372.42–$458.03
Current: $428.07
WHAT-IF VALUATION——
PRICE INDEX—Current market = 100
FAIR-VALUE GAP—To median fair value
PRICE PERCENTILE—Within fair-value distribution
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · GLD
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
What-If price
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
FAIR-VALUE GAP
-5.0%
Median fair value vs market
1Y EXPECTED RETURN
+2.5%
P10–P90 -18% to +22%
EDGE VS 1Y TREASURY
-1.5%
Treasury 4.0%
LONG-RUN BEAT RATE
66%
Historical base rate · not today's conditional probability
VALUATION CONFIDENCE
76%
moderate-high
WHAT SUPPORTS FAIR VALUE
- Central-bank gold purchases rebounded to 288.9 tonnes in Q2, reinforcing structural official-sector demand.
- Gold supply growth remains constrained enough that demand changes can still have large price effects.
WHAT COULD BREAK THE THESIS
- A 2.38% real 10-year yield is a material opportunity-cost headwind for non-yielding metals.
- Gold ETF demand swung to a 44.8-tonne outflow in Q2.
Q2 average LBMA gold price
4506.3 USD/oz
37% above Q2 2025 average
Q2 central-bank purchases
288.9 tonnes
62% year-over-year increase
Q2 gold ETF flows
-44.8 tonnes
Swing to outflows
×
VALUATION INTELLIGENCE
US Equities
SPY · US Large-Cap Index
VALUATION
-2.0
Expensive
MODELED FAIR VALUE TODAY
Market = 100 · Median fair value = 93
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
M Market
F Median fair value
P25–P75 central range
M Market 100
F Fair 93
P25–P75 87–100
PRICE WHAT-IF · SPY
What would valuation look like at a different market price?
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
MODELED MEDIAN FAIR VALUE TODAY
$712.30
Central P25–P75: $666.34–$765.91
Current: $765.91
WHAT-IF VALUATION——
PRICE INDEX—Current market = 100
FAIR-VALUE GAP—To median fair value
PRICE PERCENTILE—Within fair-value distribution
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · SPY
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
What-If price
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
FAIR-VALUE GAP
-7.0%
Median fair value vs market
1Y EXPECTED RETURN
+4.5%
P10–P90 -13% to +17%
EDGE VS 1Y TREASURY
+0.5%
Treasury 4.0%
LONG-RUN BEAT RATE
80%
Historical base rate · not today's conditional probability
VALUATION CONFIDENCE
89%
high
WHAT SUPPORTS FAIR VALUE
- Consensus CY 2026 earnings growth remains unusually strong, supporting forward economic output.
- Forward P/E has eased below its June-quarter endpoint even as earnings estimates rose.
WHAT COULD BREAK THE THESIS
- Shiller CAPE is near the top of long-run history, leaving limited valuation cushion if earnings normalization disappoints.
- A 2.38% real 10-year Treasury yield raises discount rates for long-duration cash flows.
Forward 12M P/E
20.0 x
5Y average 19.9x; 10Y average 19.0x
CY 2026 earnings growth
30.0 percent
FactSet consensus
Shiller CAPE
41.2 x
30Y percentile 95%
Valuation score
Where current market price (100) sits within the modeled fair-value distribution. Positive = cheaper; negative = more expensive.
Fair-value gap
Median modeled fair value relative to today’s price. It is not an expected return or a timing forecast.
1Y expected return
A separate forward return scenario distribution that can differ materially from the fair-value gap.
Expected edge vs Treasury
Modeled 1Y expected return minus the current 1Y Treasury benchmark. Positive values indicate modeled return above the benchmark.
Historical probability
When available, this is the calibrated share of comparable historical starting regimes that beat the contemporaneous 1Y Treasury benchmark. Long-run base rates are not substituted for it.
Valuation confidence
Evidence-strength score displayed as a percentage for readability. It is not a probability that the valuation is correct.
Sources & methodology references 12
Tier 1 · 99%
U.S. Energy Information Administration · 2026-08-11