Fixed Income

August 25, 2026Data cutoff Aug 25, 2026, 11:22 PM EDTintraday

Modeled fair value

BND · US Broad Bond Market

+0.5Somewhat cheap

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 42.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 58% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Median fair value: 101.0
Upside to median: +1.0%
Last close: $72.67
Confidence: high

Modeled returns

Return distributions, not point forecasts

Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.

One year

modeled

P90: +10.0%
P75: +8.0%
Median: +4.9%
P25: +1.0%
P10: -3.0%

82% of modeled scenarios end positive.

Modeled bond total-return scenarios anchored primarily to starting yield, with duration, spread and reinvestment-rate variation.

Three years, annualised

modeled

P90: +7.0%
P75: +6.2%
Median: +4.8%
P25: +3.0%
P10: 0.0%

Modeled bond total-return scenarios anchored primarily to starting yield, with duration, spread and reinvestment-rate variation. Three-year annualized scenarios use wider partial-normalization horizons.

Against the Treasury hurdle

1y Treasury: 4.04%
Expected excess: +0.9%
Basis: direct

DGS1 is the preferred current one-year investment-basis hurdle; expected excess is modeled and not guaranteed.

Instruments

7 in this asset class

Symbol	Valuation	Fair value	Last close	1y modeled
BND US Broad Bond Market	+0.5Somewhat cheap	101.0	$72.67	+4.9%
TLT Long-Term US Treasuries	+0.5Somewhat cheap	101.0	$83.47	+4.9%
IEF Intermediate US Treasuries	+0.5Somewhat cheap	101.0	$93.51	+4.9%
SHY Short-Term US Treasuries	+0.5Somewhat cheap	101.0	$82.08	+4.9%
TIP Inflation-Protected Treasuries	+0.5Somewhat cheap	101.0	$107.64	+4.9%
LQD Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds	+0.5Somewhat cheap	101.0	$106.86	+4.9%
HYG High-Yield Corporate Bonds	+0.5Somewhat cheap	101.0	$79.92	+4.9%