Japan Equities
Today’s price sits at the 42.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 58% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 104.0
- Upside to median
- +4.0%
- Last close
- $95.63
- Confidence
- high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +19.0%
- P75
- +14.0%
- Median
- +6.5%
- P25
- -1.0%
- P10
- -12.0%
71% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Modeled total-return scenarios combining earnings yield, dividends and partial multiple normalization with currency and rate uncertainty embedded in dispersion.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +11.0%
- P75
- +9.0%
- Median
- +6.0%
- P25
- +2.5%
- P10
- -4.0%
Modeled total-return scenarios combining earnings yield, dividends and partial multiple normalization with currency and rate uncertainty embedded in dispersion. Three-year annualized scenarios use wider partial-normalization horizons.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.04%
- Expected excess
- +2.5%
- Basis
- direct
DGS1 is the preferred current one-year investment-basis hurdle; expected excess is modeled and not guaranteed.
5 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EWJ Japan Broad Market | +0.5Somewhat cheap | 104.0 | $95.63 | +6.5% |
| DXJ Japan Hedged Equity | +0.5Somewhat cheap | 104.0 | $178.50 | +6.5% |
| SCJ Japan Small-Cap Equity | +0.5Somewhat cheap | 104.0 | $109.11 | +6.5% |
| EWJV Japan Value Equity | +0.5Somewhat cheap | 104.0 | $47.36 | +6.5% |
| JPXN Japan JPX-Nikkei 400 | +0.5Somewhat cheap | 104.0 | $102.53 | +6.5% |