Real Estate
Data cutoff intraday
Modeled fair value
VNQ · US Real Estate
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100
Today’s price sits at the 58.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 42% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 99.0
- Upside to median
- -1.0%
- Last close
- $99.25
- Confidence
- high
index, market = 100
2026-08-25
80/100
Modeled returns
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +18.0%
- P75
- +13.0%
- Median
- +5.5%
- P25
- -1.0%
- P10
- -12.0%
71% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Modeled REIT total-return scenarios combining distribution yield, FFO/NAV normalization and financing-rate sensitivity.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +11.0%
- P75
- +9.0%
- Median
- +6.0%
- P25
- +2.5%
- P10
- -4.0%
Modeled REIT total-return scenarios combining distribution yield, FFO/NAV normalization and financing-rate sensitivity. Three-year annualized scenarios use wider partial-normalization horizons.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.04%
- Expected excess
- +1.5%
- Basis
- direct
DGS1 is the preferred current one-year investment-basis hurdle; expected excess is modeled and not guaranteed.
Instruments
6 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VNQ US Real Estate | -0.5Somewhat expensive | 99.0 | $99.25 | +5.5% |
| XLRE US Real Estate Sector | -0.5Somewhat expensive | 99.0 | $45.36 | +5.5% |
| REET Global Real Estate | -0.5Somewhat expensive | 99.0 | $28.23 | +5.5% |
| REM Mortgage Real Estate | -0.5Somewhat expensive | 99.0 | $21.93 | +5.5% |
| SRVR Data Center and Digital REITs | -0.5Somewhat expensive | 99.0 | $32.04 | +5.5% |
| REZ Residential and Specialized REITs | -0.5Somewhat expensive | 99.0 | $96.74 | +5.5% |