Crypto
Today’s price sits at the 42.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 58% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 50–220 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–200 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 103.0
- Upside to median
- +3.0%
- Last close
- $78,362.40
- Confidence
- moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +65.0%
- P75
- +40.0%
- Median
- +9.0%
- P25
- -10.0%
- P10
- -38.0%
58% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Wide modeled crypto return scenarios using on-chain valuation state and adoption/liquidity ranges; no claim of universally accepted intrinsic value.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +30.0%
- P75
- +22.0%
- Median
- +10.0%
- P25
- +2.0%
- P10
- -10.0%
Wide modeled crypto return scenarios using on-chain valuation state and adoption/liquidity ranges; no claim of universally accepted intrinsic value. Three-year annualized scenarios use wider partial-normalization horizons.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.04%
- Expected excess
- +5.0%
- Basis
- direct
DGS1 is the preferred current one-year investment-basis hurdle; expected excess is modeled and not guaranteed.