Developed Pacific Equities
Today’s price sits at the 42.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 58% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 103.0
- Upside to median
- +3.0%
- Last close
- $30.43
- Confidence
- high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +18.0%
- P75
- +13.0%
- Median
- +6.0%
- P25
- 0.0%
- P10
- -10.0%
71% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Modeled total-return scenarios combining earnings yield, dividends and partial valuation normalization with regional bank/property sensitivity embedded in uncertainty.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +11.0%
- P75
- +9.0%
- Median
- +6.0%
- P25
- +3.0%
- P10
- -3.0%
Modeled total-return scenarios combining earnings yield, dividends and partial valuation normalization with regional bank/property sensitivity embedded in uncertainty. Three-year annualized scenarios use wider partial-normalization horizons.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.04%
- Expected excess
- +2.0%
- Basis
- direct
DGS1 is the preferred current one-year investment-basis hurdle; expected excess is modeled and not guaranteed.