US Equities
Today’s price sits at the 83.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 17% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 93.0
- Upside to median
- -7.0%
- Last close
- $765.91
- Confidence
- high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +17.0%
- P75
- +12.0%
- Median
- +4.5%
- P25
- -3.0%
- P10
- -13.0%
71% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Modeled total-return scenarios combining earnings growth, dividend/shareholder yield, and partial valuation normalization; long-run return history used only as a prior.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +10.5%
- P75
- +8.5%
- Median
- +5.5%
- P25
- +2.5%
- P10
- -4.0%
Modeled total-return scenarios combining earnings growth, dividend/shareholder yield, and partial valuation normalization; long-run return history used only as a prior. Three-year annualized scenarios use wider partial-normalization horizons.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.04%
- Expected excess
- +0.5%
- Basis
- direct
DGS1 is the preferred current one-year investment-basis hurdle; expected excess is modeled and not guaranteed.
9 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY US Large-Cap Index | -2.0Expensive | 93.0 | $765.91 | +4.5% |
| QQQ US Technology Index | -2.0Expensive | 93.0 | $710.72 | +4.5% |
| DIA US Blue-Chip Index | -2.0Expensive | 93.0 | $535.24 | +4.5% |
| IWM US Small-Cap Index | -2.0Expensive | 93.0 | $299.23 | +4.5% |
| RSP US Equal-Weight Index | -2.0Expensive | 93.0 | $221.77 | +4.5% |
| XLF US Financial Sector | -2.0Expensive | 93.0 | $58.31 | +4.5% |
| XLI US Industrial Sector | -2.0Expensive | 93.0 | $178.40 | +4.5% |
| XLV US Healthcare Sector | -2.0Expensive | 93.0 | $175.29 | +4.5% |
| SMH US Semiconductor Sector | -2.0Expensive | 93.0 | $555.82 | +4.5% |