Energy
Today’s price sits at the 72.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 28% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 93.0
- Upside to median
- -7.0%
- Last close
- $126.15
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +24.0%
- P75
- +14.0%
- Median
- +1.0%
- P25
- -8.0%
- P10
- -24.0%
58% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Modeled energy return scenarios using official price-path assumptions and supply/demand ranges, with wide commodity and roll-yield uncertainty.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +9.0%
- P75
- +6.0%
- Median
- +2.0%
- P25
- 0.0%
- P10
- -7.0%
Modeled energy return scenarios using official price-path assumptions and supply/demand ranges, with wide commodity and roll-yield uncertainty. Three-year annualized scenarios use wider partial-normalization horizons.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.04%
- Expected excess
- -3.0%
- Basis
- direct
DGS1 is the preferred current one-year investment-basis hurdle; expected excess is modeled and not guaranteed.