China & Hong Kong Equities
Today’s price sits at the 18.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 82% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 50–220 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–200 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 120.0
- Upside to median
- +20.0%
- Last close
- $55.12
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +32.0%
- P75
- +23.0%
- Median
- +10.5%
- P25
- -2.0%
- P10
- -20.0%
71% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Modeled total-return scenarios combining earnings/dividend carry and partial valuation normalization with a wide range for macro, policy and profit uncertainty.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +18.0%
- P75
- +14.0%
- Median
- +8.5%
- P25
- +2.0%
- P10
- -6.0%
Modeled total-return scenarios combining earnings/dividend carry and partial valuation normalization with a wide range for macro, policy and profit uncertainty. Three-year annualized scenarios use wider partial-normalization horizons.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.04%
- Expected excess
- +6.5%
- Basis
- direct
DGS1 is the preferred current one-year investment-basis hurdle; expected excess is modeled and not guaranteed.
10 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCHI China Broad Market | +1.9Cheap | 120.0 | $55.12 | +10.5% |
| FXI China Large-Cap | +1.9Cheap | 120.0 | $35.56 | +10.5% |
| KWEB China Internet Sector | +1.9Cheap | 120.0 | $26.41 | +10.5% |
| ASHR China A-Shares | +1.9Cheap | 120.0 | $34.08 | +10.5% |
| CQQQ China Technology Sector | +1.9Cheap | 120.0 | $48.14 | +10.5% |
| CHIQ China Consumer Sector | +1.9Cheap | 120.0 | $17.71 | +10.5% |
| EWH Hong Kong Broad Market | +1.9Cheap | 120.0 | $23.20 | +10.5% |
| 2800.HK Hang Seng Index Tracker | +1.9Cheap | 120.0 | $26.50 | +10.5% |
| 3033.HK Hang Seng Technology Index | +1.9Cheap | 120.0 | $4.67 | +10.5% |
| 3110.HK Hong Kong High-Dividend Equity | +1.9Cheap | 120.0 | $31.94 | +10.5% |