Valuation Lens — August 25, 2026

Cheap emerging markets contrast with expensive U.S. equities and metals

Every asset class is indexed so today’s market price equals 100. A median fair value of 112 means the model puts fair value 12% above the current price; 93 means 7% below it. Modeled returns are distributions, not forecasts.

August 25, 2026Data cutoff Aug 25, 2026, 11:22 PM EDTintraday

The hurdle to beat

4.04%1y Treasury

The preferred one-year hurdle is the 4.04% investment-basis Treasury yield, with the 10-year nominal yield at 4.70% and 10-year real yield at 2.38%.

10y Treasury: 4.7%
10y real: 2.4%

Scorecard

Cheap to expensive

Ranked by valuation score. Positive means the model sees value below the market price — the opposite convention to a trend score, so the labels are always shown alongside.

China & Hong Kong EquitiesMCHI
+1.9
Cheap
Median fair value
120.0102.0–146.0
Upside to median
+20.0%
1y modeled
+10.5%-20.0% to 32.0%
vs Treasury
+6.5%
Europe EquitiesVGK
+1.3
Cheap
Median fair value
109.099.0–120.0
Upside to median
+9.0%
1y modeled
+7.5%-11.0% to 20.0%
vs Treasury
+3.5%
Emerging Markets EquitiesVWO
+1.3
Cheap
Median fair value
114.096.0–136.0
Upside to median
+14.0%
1y modeled
+9.5%-18.0% to 30.0%
vs Treasury
+5.5%
Fixed IncomeBND
+0.5
Somewhat cheap
Median fair value
101.098.5–103.5
Upside to median
+1.0%
1y modeled
+4.9%-3.0% to 10.0%
vs Treasury
+0.9%
Japan EquitiesEWJ
+0.5
Somewhat cheap
Median fair value
104.097.0–113.0
Upside to median
+4.0%
1y modeled
+6.5%-12.0% to 19.0%
vs Treasury
+2.5%
Developed Pacific EquitiesEWA
+0.5
Somewhat cheap
Median fair value
103.095.0–114.0
Upside to median
+3.0%
1y modeled
+6.0%-10.0% to 18.0%
vs Treasury
+2.0%
CryptoBTC-USD
+0.5
Somewhat cheap
Median fair value
103.082.0–132.0
Upside to median
+3.0%
1y modeled
+9.0%-38.0% to 65.0%
vs Treasury
+5.0%
Real EstateVNQ
-0.5
Somewhat expensive
Median fair value
99.093.0–108.0
Upside to median
-1.0%
1y modeled
+5.5%-12.0% to 18.0%
vs Treasury
+1.5%
EnergyUSO
-1.3
Expensive
Median fair value
93.085.0–104.0
Upside to median
-7.0%
1y modeled
+1.0%-24.0% to 24.0%
vs Treasury
-3.0%
MetalsGLD
-1.3
Expensive
Median fair value
95.087.0–107.0
Upside to median
-5.0%
1y modeled
+2.5%-18.0% to 22.0%
vs Treasury
-1.5%
US EquitiesSPY
-2.0
Expensive
Median fair value
93.087.0–100.0
Upside to median
-7.0%
1y modeled
+4.5%-13.0% to 17.0%
vs Treasury
+0.5%

Valuation Lens scores by asset class for 2026-08-25, ranked cheapest to most expensive.
Asset class	Valuation	Median fair value	Upside to median	1y modeled	vs Treasury
China & Hong Kong Equities MCHI	+1.9 Cheap	120.0 102.0–146.0	+20.0%	+10.5% -20.0% to 32.0%	+6.5%
Europe Equities VGK	+1.3 Cheap	109.0 99.0–120.0	+9.0%	+7.5% -11.0% to 20.0%	+3.5%
Emerging Markets Equities VWO	+1.3 Cheap	114.0 96.0–136.0	+14.0%	+9.5% -18.0% to 30.0%	+5.5%
Fixed Income BND	+0.5 Somewhat cheap	101.0 98.5–103.5	+1.0%	+4.9% -3.0% to 10.0%	+0.9%
Japan Equities EWJ	+0.5 Somewhat cheap	104.0 97.0–113.0	+4.0%	+6.5% -12.0% to 19.0%	+2.5%
Developed Pacific Equities EWA	+0.5 Somewhat cheap	103.0 95.0–114.0	+3.0%	+6.0% -10.0% to 18.0%	+2.0%
Crypto BTC-USD	+0.5 Somewhat cheap	103.0 82.0–132.0	+3.0%	+9.0% -38.0% to 65.0%	+5.0%
Real Estate VNQ	-0.5 Somewhat expensive	99.0 93.0–108.0	-1.0%	+5.5% -12.0% to 18.0%	+1.5%
Energy USO	-1.3 Expensive	93.0 85.0–104.0	-7.0%	+1.0% -24.0% to 24.0%	-3.0%
Metals GLD	-1.3 Expensive	95.0 87.0–107.0	-5.0%	+2.5% -18.0% to 22.0%	-1.5%
US Equities SPY	-2.0 Expensive	93.0 87.0–100.0	-7.0%	+4.5% -13.0% to 17.0%	+0.5%

Scores run −3 to +3: −3 is very expensive against modeled fair value, +3 very cheap. Positive means undervalued.

“1y modeled” shows the median of a scenario distribution with its 10th-to-90th percentile range beneath. These are model outputs under stated assumptions, not predictions, and the range is as important as the midpoint.

Distributions

Where the market sits inside modeled fair value

Each curve is the model's full range of fair-value outcomes. The solid marker is today's price; the dashed line is the median of the distribution.

China & Hong Kong Equities

MCHI · China Broad Market

+1.9Cheap

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 18.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 82% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Axis widened to 50–220 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–200 would clip this distribution’s tails.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 71%Historical base rate: 56%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Europe Equities

VGK · Europe Broad Market

+1.3Cheap

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 29.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 71% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 58%Historical base rate: 62%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Emerging Markets Equities

VWO · Emerging Markets Broad Index

+1.3Cheap

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 29.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 71% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 58%Historical base rate: 64%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Fixed Income

BND · US Broad Bond Market

+0.5Somewhat cheap

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 42.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 58% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 58%Historical base rate: 65%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Japan Equities

EWJ · Japan Broad Market

+0.5Somewhat cheap

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 42.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 58% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 58%Historical base rate: 57%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Developed Pacific Equities

EWA · Australia Broad Market

+0.5Somewhat cheap

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 42.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 58% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 58%Historical base rate: 63%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Crypto

BTC-USD · Bitcoin

+0.5Somewhat cheap

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 42.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 58% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Axis widened to 50–220 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–200 would clip this distribution’s tails.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 58%

Real Estate

VNQ · US Real Estate

-0.5Somewhat expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 58.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 42% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 58%Historical base rate: 68%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Energy

USO · US Crude Oil

-1.3Expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 72.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 28% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 42%Historical base rate: 44%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Metals

GLD · Gold

-1.3Expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 72.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 28% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 42%Historical base rate: 66%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

US Equities

SPY · US Large-Cap Index

-2.0Expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 83.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 17% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 58%Historical base rate: 80%

Sources13

1
S&P 500 Earnings Season Update: August 7, 2026
FactSet
2
MSCI Europe Index
MSCI
3
MSCI Japan Index
MSCI
4
MSCI China Index
MSCI
5
MSCI Emerging Markets Index
MSCI
6
MSCI Pacific ex Japan Index
MSCI
7
Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF
Vanguard
8
REIT Industry Financial Snapshot
Nareit
9
Gold Demand Trends: Q2 2026
World Gold Council
10
Short-Term Energy Outlook — August 2026
U.S. Energy Information Administration
11
BTC MVRV by Wallet Size
Glassnode
12
U.S. Stock Markets 1871-Present
Robert J. Shiller
13
FRED economic and Treasury series
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Methodology: cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4
Schema version: 3.4.0
Run ID: 2026-08-25_valuation-lens_232228-et

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.