Valuation Lens — November 4, 2026
Bonds, emerging markets and China screen modestly cheap; US large caps and crude oil screen expensive with the 10-year real yield at 2.64%.
Every asset class is indexed so today’s market price equals 100. A median fair value of 112 means the model puts fair value 12% above the current price; 93 means 7% below it. Modeled returns are distributions, not forecasts.
The 1-year Treasury par yield of 4.39% sets a demanding hurdle, and a 2.64% 10-year real yield near the top of its 10-year range raises the discount rate applied to every long-duration asset.
- 10y Treasury
- 4.9%
- 10y real
- 2.6%
Cheap to expensive
Ranked by valuation score. Positive means the model sees value below the market price — the opposite convention to a trend score, so the labels are always shown alongside.
- Fixed IncomeBND+1.1Somewhat cheap
- Median fair value
- 101.599.4–103.6
- Upside to median
- +1.5%
- 1y modeled
- +5.8%0.5% to 10.8%
- vs Treasury
- +1.4%
- +0.9Somewhat cheap
- Median fair value
- 106.096.0–117.0
- Upside to median
- +6.0%
- 1y modeled
- +9.5%-17.0% to 33.0%
- vs Treasury
- +5.1%
- +0.7Somewhat cheap
- Median fair value
- 105.094.0–117.1
- Upside to median
- +5.0%
- 1y modeled
- +9.0%-22.0% to 37.0%
- vs Treasury
- +4.6%
- +0.2Fair
- Median fair value
- 101.093.3–108.7
- Upside to median
- +1.0%
- 1y modeled
- +8.0%-13.0% to 26.0%
- vs Treasury
- +3.6%
- -0.2Fair
- Median fair value
- 99.091.3–106.7
- Upside to median
- -1.0%
- 1y modeled
- +7.5%-14.0% to 26.0%
- vs Treasury
- +3.1%
- CryptoBTC-USD-0.3Fair
- Median fair value
- 97.081.0–114.6
- Upside to median
- -3.0%
- 1y modeled
- +3.0%-45.0% to 65.0%
- vs Treasury
- -1.4%
- Real EstateVNQ-0.7Somewhat expensive
- Median fair value
- 96.087.6–104.4
- Upside to median
- -4.0%
- 1y modeled
- +6.0%-14.0% to 25.0%
- vs Treasury
- +1.6%
- MetalsGLD-0.9Somewhat expensive
- Median fair value
- 94.083.0–104.0
- Upside to median
- -6.0%
- 1y modeled
- +2.0%-18.0% to 22.0%
- vs Treasury
- -2.4%
- -1.0Somewhat expensive
- Median fair value
- 95.087.3–102.7
- Upside to median
- -5.0%
- 1y modeled
- +6.0%-13.0% to 23.0%
- vs Treasury
- +1.6%
- EnergyUSO-1.5Expensive
- Median fair value
- 90.079.0–100.0
- Upside to median
- -10.0%
- 1y modeled
- -3.0%-38.0% to 32.0%
- vs Treasury
- -7.4%
- US EquitiesSPY-1.6Expensive
- Median fair value
- 92.085.0–99.0
- Upside to median
- -8.0%
- 1y modeled
- +5.5%-15.0% to 23.0%
- vs Treasury
- +1.1%
Scores run −3 to +3: −3 is very expensive against modeled fair value, +3 very cheap. Positive means undervalued.
“1y modeled” shows the median of a scenario distribution with its 10th-to-90th percentile range beneath. These are model outputs under stated assumptions, not predictions, and the range is as important as the midpoint.
Where the market sits inside modeled fair value
Each curve is the model's full range of fair-value outcomes. The solid marker is today's price; the dashed line is the median of the distribution.
Fixed Income
Today’s price sits at the 32.1th percentile of modeled fair value — 68% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
Emerging Markets Equities
Today’s price sits at the 35.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 65% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
China & Hong Kong Equities
Today’s price sits at the 38.6th percentile of modeled fair value — 61% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 50–160 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–150 would clip this distribution’s tails.
Europe Equities
Today’s price sits at the 46.8th percentile of modeled fair value — 53% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Japan Equities
Today’s price sits at the 53.3th percentile of modeled fair value — 47% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Crypto
Today’s price sits at the 54.3th percentile of modeled fair value — 46% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 30–170 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–150 would clip this distribution’s tails.
Real Estate
Today’s price sits at the 61.9th percentile of modeled fair value — 38% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Metals
Today’s price sits at the 65.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 35% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
Developed Pacific Equities
Today’s price sits at the 66.2th percentile of modeled fair value — 34% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Energy
Today’s price sits at the 75.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 25% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 40–150 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–150 would clip this distribution’s tails.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
US Equities
Today’s price sits at the 77.1th percentile of modeled fair value — 23% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Sources9
- 1
- 2Short-Term Energy Outlook (October 2026 release)U.S. Energy Information Administration
- 3P/E Ratios by Country 2026Siblis Research
- 4Hong Kong (Hang Seng) P/E & CAPE 2026Siblis Research
- 5Emerging Markets P/E & Valuations 2026Siblis Research
- 6JPMorgan BetaBuilders U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF product snapshotJ.P. Morgan Asset Management
- 7
- 8Goldhub insights: posts from September 2026 (with live gold spot price)World Gold Council
- 9
- Methodology
- cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4
- Schema version
- 3.4.0
- Run ID
- valuation_lens_2026-11-04_r1
This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.