China & Hong Kong Equities
Today’s price sits at the 38.6th percentile of modeled fair value — 61% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 50–160 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–150 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 105.0
- Upside to median
- +5.0%
- Last close
- $51.56
- Confidence
- moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +37.0%
- P75
- +23.0%
- Median
- +9.0%
- P25
- -5.0%
- P10
- -22.0%
66% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Dividend yield of about 3% plus haircut earnings growth plus partial closing of the fair-value gap, with wide dispersion for policy, geopolitical and currency risk.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +19.0%
- P75
- +13.0%
- Median
- +7.5%
- P25
- +1.5%
- P10
- -6.0%
Dividend yield plus normalized mid-single-digit earnings growth with gradual valuation convergence.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.39%
- Modeled excess
- +4.6%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled one-year edge over the 1-year Treasury par yield; not a guaranteed excess return.
9 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCHI China Broad Market | +0.7Somewhat cheap | 105.0 | $51.56 | +9.0% |
| 2800.HK Hang Seng Index Tracker | —Unavailable | — | $24.00 | — |
| 3033.HK Hang Seng Technology Index | —Unavailable | — | $3.85 | — |
| ASHR China A-Shares | —Unavailable | — | $30.99 | — |
| CHIQ China Consumer Sector | —Unavailable | — | $16.36 | — |
| CQQQ China Technology Sector | —Unavailable | — | $40.36 | — |
| EWH Hong Kong Broad Market | —Unavailable | — | $23.41 | — |
| FXI China Large-Cap | —Unavailable | — | $34.59 | — |
| KWEB China Internet Sector | —Unavailable | — | $24.32 | — |