Crypto
Data cutoff
Modeled fair value
BTC-USD · Bitcoin
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100
Today’s price sits at the 54.3th percentile of modeled fair value — 46% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 30–170 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–150 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 97.0
- Upside to median
- -3.0%
- Last close
- $45.33
- Confidence
- low-moderate
index, market = 100
2026-11-04
37/100
Modeled returns
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +65.0%
- P75
- +30.0%
- Median
- +3.0%
- P25
- -22.0%
- P10
- -45.0%
53% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Scenario-weighted change in network value relative to realized value, with no cash yield and a very wide dispersion reflecting realized crypto volatility.
Three years, annualised
unavailable- P90
- —
- P75
- —
- Median
- —
- P25
- —
- P10
- —
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.39%
- Modeled excess
- -1.4%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled one-year edge over the 1-year Treasury par yield; not a guaranteed excess return. Crypto return estimates carry very low reliability.