Metals
Data cutoff
Modeled fair value
GLD · Gold
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100
Today’s price sits at the 65.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 35% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 94.0
- Upside to median
- -6.0%
- Last close
- $372.49
- Confidence
- moderate
index, market = 100
2026-11-04
55/100
Modeled returns
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +22.0%
- P75
- +12.0%
- Median
- +2.0%
- P25
- -8.0%
- P10
- -18.0%
55% of modeled scenarios end positive.
No carry; long-run real price drift plus continued official-sector demand, less partial closing of the fair-value gap, with dispersion consistent with recent gold volatility.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +12.0%
- P75
- +7.0%
- Median
- +2.5%
- P25
- -2.0%
- P10
- -7.0%
Inflation-linked drift with gradual convergence toward the modeled fair-value range.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.39%
- Modeled excess
- -2.4%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled one-year edge over the 1-year Treasury par yield; not a guaranteed excess return. The Treasury currently offers a higher modeled return with far lower uncertainty.
Instruments