Emerging Markets Equities
Data cutoff
Modeled fair value
VWO · Emerging Markets Broad Index
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100
Today’s price sits at the 35.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 65% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 106.0
- Upside to median
- +6.0%
- Last close
- $56.28
- Confidence
- moderate
index, market = 100
2026-11-04
58/100
Modeled returns
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +33.0%
- P75
- +21.0%
- Median
- +9.5%
- P25
- -3.0%
- P10
- -17.0%
69% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Dividend yield of about 2.8% plus haircut forward earnings growth plus partial (about one-third) closing of the fair-value gap, with a dispersion consistent with emerging-market equity volatility and currency risk.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +18.0%
- P75
- +13.0%
- Median
- +8.0%
- P25
- +2.5%
- P10
- -4.0%
Dividend yield plus normalized earnings growth with gradual valuation convergence over three years.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.39%
- Modeled excess
- +5.1%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled one-year edge over the 1-year Treasury par yield; not a guaranteed excess return.
Instruments
7 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VWO Emerging Markets Broad Index | +0.9Somewhat cheap | 106.0 | $56.28 | +9.5% |
| EMXC Emerging Markets Ex-China | —Unavailable | — | $89.72 | — |
| EWT Taiwan Index | —Unavailable | — | $97.08 | — |
| EWY South Korea Index | —Unavailable | — | $152.12 | — |
| EWZ Brazil Index | —Unavailable | — | $32.25 | — |
| EZA South Africa Index | —Unavailable | — | $65.56 | — |
| INDA India Index | —Unavailable | — | $50.03 | — |