Fixed Income
Today’s price sits at the 32.1th percentile of modeled fair value — 68% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 101.5
- Upside to median
- +1.5%
- Last close
- $71.50
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +10.8%
- P75
- +8.3%
- Median
- +5.8%
- P25
- +3.3%
- P10
- +0.5%
93% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Starting yield carry plus duration-scaled price change across the justified-yield scenarios, with one-third of the fair-value gap assumed to close within a year; scenario spread reflects a 1-year yield-change distribution consistent with current rate volatility.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +8.0%
- P75
- +6.8%
- Median
- +5.5%
- P25
- +4.2%
- P10
- +2.8%
Starting yield to maturity adjusted for expected reinvestment and roll-down, with price effects amortized over three years.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.39%
- Modeled excess
- +1.4%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled one-year edge over the 1-year Treasury par yield; not a guaranteed excess return.
7 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BND US Broad Bond Market | +1.1Somewhat cheap | 101.5 | $71.50 | +5.8% |
| HYG High-Yield Corporate Bonds | —Unavailable | — | $77.52 | — |
| IEF Intermediate US Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $91.66 | — |
| LQD Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds | —Unavailable | — | $104.50 | — |
| SHY Short-Term US Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $81.50 | — |
| TIP Inflation-Protected Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $106.10 | — |
| TLT Long-Term US Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $81.76 | — |