US Equities
Today’s price sits at the 77.1th percentile of modeled fair value — 23% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 92.0
- Upside to median
- -8.0%
- Last close
- $766.81
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +23.0%
- P75
- +14.5%
- Median
- +5.5%
- P25
- -4.5%
- P10
- -15.0%
64% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Shareholder yield of about 2% plus forward earnings growth haircut for record margins, less partial (about one-quarter) closing of the fair-value gap, with dispersion consistent with large-cap equity volatility.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +12.0%
- P75
- +8.5%
- Median
- +4.5%
- P25
- +0.5%
- P10
- -4.0%
Shareholder yield plus normalized earnings growth with partial multiple and margin normalization over three years.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.39%
- Modeled excess
- +1.1%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled one-year edge over the 1-year Treasury par yield; not a guaranteed excess return. The edge is thin relative to equity risk.
10 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY US Large-Cap Index | -1.6Expensive | 92.0 | $766.81 | +5.5% |
| DIA US Blue-Chip Index | —Unavailable | — | $533.11 | — |
| IWM US Small-Cap Index | —Unavailable | — | $284.02 | — |
| QQQ US Technology Index | —Unavailable | — | $691.95 | — |
| RSP US Equal-Weight Index | —Unavailable | — | $223.33 | — |
| SMH US Semiconductor Sector | —Unavailable | — | $504.27 | — |
| XLF US Financial Sector | —Unavailable | — | $59.20 | — |
| XLI US Industrial Sector | —Unavailable | — | $169.46 | — |
| XLV US Healthcare Sector | —Unavailable | — | $189.66 | — |
| XLY US Consumer Discretionary Sector | —Unavailable | — | $122.33 | — |