Energy
Today’s price sits at the 75.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 25% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 40–150 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–150 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 90.0
- Upside to median
- -10.0%
- Last close
- $145.41
- Confidence
- moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +32.0%
- P75
- +14.0%
- Median
- -3.0%
- P25
- -20.0%
- P10
- -38.0%
46% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Expected crude spot path from the official forecast plus positive roll yield from a backwardated futures curve, less partial convergence toward the modeled fair-value range, with very wide supply-disruption dispersion.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +9.0%
- P75
- +3.0%
- Median
- -4.0%
- P25
- -11.0%
- P10
- -18.0%
Gradual normalization of crude toward marginal-cost-based levels, partly offset by roll yield.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.39%
- Modeled excess
- -7.4%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled one-year edge over the 1-year Treasury par yield; not a guaranteed excess return. The Treasury currently offers a higher modeled return with far lower uncertainty.