Valuation Lens — October 29, 2026

Oil and US large caps screen expensive against modeled fair value while emerging markets, high-quality bonds and China screen modestly cheap; no asset class clears the 4.42% 1-year Treasury by a wide modeled margin, so cash-like Treasuries remain a competitive, lower-uncertainty alternative.

Every asset class is indexed so today’s market price equals 100. A median fair value of 112 means the model puts fair value 12% above the current price; 93 means 7% below it. Modeled returns are distributions, not forecasts.

Explains: price against valueDescribes what today’s price assumes against a modeled range of value — for insight and context.

October 29, 2026Last market session Oct 29, 2026Data cutoff Oct 29, 2026, 6:56 PM EDT

The hurdle to beat

4.42%1y Treasury

The 1-year Treasury par yield of 4.42% sets the annual hurdle, with the 10-year at 4.98% and the 10-year real yield at 2.63%, near the top of its 10-year range.

10y Treasury: 5.0%
10y real: 2.6%

Scorecard

Cheap to expensive

Ranked by valuation score. Positive means the model sees value below the market price — the opposite convention to a trend score, so the labels are always shown alongside.

Emerging Markets EquitiesVWO
+0.9
Somewhat cheap
Median fair value
104.696.3–113.2
Upside to median
+4.6%
1y modeled
+8.0%-17.6% to 33.6%
vs Treasury
+3.6%
Fixed IncomeBND
+0.7
Somewhat cheap
Median fair value
101.398.5–104.2
Upside to median
+1.3%
1y modeled
+5.3%-2.4% to 13.0%
vs Treasury
+0.9%
China & Hong Kong EquitiesMCHI
+0.7
Somewhat cheap
Median fair value
104.394.3–114.6
Upside to median
+4.3%
1y modeled
+7.5%-25.8% to 40.8%
vs Treasury
+3.1%
Real EstateVNQ
+0.6
Somewhat cheap
Median fair value
102.495.9–108.7
Upside to median
+2.4%
1y modeled
+7.0%-16.1% to 30.1%
vs Treasury
+2.6%
CryptoBTC-USD
-0.1
Fair
Median fair value
98.176.7–120.6
Upside to median
-1.9%
1y modeled
+3.0%-61.1% to 67.1%
vs Treasury
-1.4%
Europe EquitiesVGK
-0.3
Fair
Median fair value
98.691.6–105.8
Upside to median
-1.4%
1y modeled
+6.5%-14.0% to 27.0%
vs Treasury
+2.1%
Japan EquitiesEWJ
-1.0
Somewhat expensive
Median fair value
95.488.2–102.4
Upside to median
-4.6%
1y modeled
+5.5%-16.3% to 27.3%
vs Treasury
+1.1%
MetalsGLD
-1.1
Somewhat expensive
Median fair value
93.484.2–102.4
Upside to median
-6.6%
1y modeled
+2.0%-21.1% to 25.1%
vs Treasury
-2.4%
Developed Pacific EquitiesEWA
-1.1
Somewhat expensive
Median fair value
94.486.5–102.0
Upside to median
-5.6%
1y modeled
+5.0%-16.8% to 26.8%
vs Treasury
+0.6%
US EquitiesSPY
-1.6
Expensive
Median fair value
92.785.8–99.3
Upside to median
-7.3%
1y modeled
+5.0%-15.5% to 25.5%
vs Treasury
+0.6%
EnergyUSO
-1.8
Expensive
Median fair value
86.676.3–97.2
Upside to median
-13.4%
1y modeled
-8.0%-52.9% to 36.9%
vs Treasury
-12.4%

Valuation Lens scores by asset class for 2026-10-29, ranked cheapest to most expensive.
Asset class	Valuation	Median fair value	Upside to median	1y modeled	vs Treasury
Emerging Markets Equities VWO	+0.9 Somewhat cheap	104.6 96.3–113.2	+4.6%	+8.0% -17.6% to 33.6%	+3.6%
Fixed Income BND	+0.7 Somewhat cheap	101.3 98.5–104.2	+1.3%	+5.3% -2.4% to 13.0%	+0.9%
China & Hong Kong Equities MCHI	+0.7 Somewhat cheap	104.3 94.3–114.6	+4.3%	+7.5% -25.8% to 40.8%	+3.1%
Real Estate VNQ	+0.6 Somewhat cheap	102.4 95.9–108.7	+2.4%	+7.0% -16.1% to 30.1%	+2.6%
Crypto BTC-USD	-0.1 Fair	98.1 76.7–120.6	-1.9%	+3.0% -61.1% to 67.1%	-1.4%
Europe Equities VGK	-0.3 Fair	98.6 91.6–105.8	-1.4%	+6.5% -14.0% to 27.0%	+2.1%
Japan Equities EWJ	-1.0 Somewhat expensive	95.4 88.2–102.4	-4.6%	+5.5% -16.3% to 27.3%	+1.1%
Metals GLD	-1.1 Somewhat expensive	93.4 84.2–102.4	-6.6%	+2.0% -21.1% to 25.1%	-2.4%
Developed Pacific Equities EWA	-1.1 Somewhat expensive	94.4 86.5–102.0	-5.6%	+5.0% -16.8% to 26.8%	+0.6%
US Equities SPY	-1.6 Expensive	92.7 85.8–99.3	-7.3%	+5.0% -15.5% to 25.5%	+0.6%
Energy USO	-1.8 Expensive	86.6 76.3–97.2	-13.4%	-8.0% -52.9% to 36.9%	-12.4%

Scores run −3 to +3: −3 is very expensive against modeled fair value, +3 very cheap. Positive means undervalued.

“1y modeled” shows the median of a scenario distribution with its 10th-to-90th percentile range beneath. These are model outputs under stated assumptions, not predictions, and the range is as important as the midpoint.

Distributions

Where the market sits inside modeled fair value

Each curve is the model's full range of fair-value outcomes. The solid marker is today's price; the dashed line is the median of the distribution.

Emerging Markets Equities

VWO · Emerging Markets Broad Index

+0.9Somewhat cheap

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 35.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 65% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 57%Historical base rate: 67%

Fixed Income

BND · US Broad Bond Market

+0.7Somewhat cheap

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 37.8th percentile of modeled fair value — 62% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 56%Historical base rate: 44%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

China & Hong Kong Equities

MCHI · China Broad Market

+0.7Somewhat cheap

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 38.8th percentile of modeled fair value — 61% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 55%Historical base rate: 50%

Real Estate

VNQ · US Real Estate

+0.6Somewhat cheap

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 40.2th percentile of modeled fair value — 60% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 56%Historical base rate: 53%

Crypto

BTC-USD · Bitcoin

-0.1Fair

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 52.3th percentile of modeled fair value — 48% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Axis widened to 0–200 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 40–160 would clip this distribution’s tails.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 49%

Europe Equities

VGK · Europe Broad Market

-0.3Fair

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 55.2th percentile of modeled fair value — 45% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 55%Historical base rate: 80%

Japan Equities

EWJ · Japan Broad Market

-1.0Somewhat expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 67.2th percentile of modeled fair value — 33% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 53%Historical base rate: 69%

Metals

GLD · Gold

-1.1Somewhat expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 69.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 31% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 45%Historical base rate: 72%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Developed Pacific Equities

EWA · Australia Broad Market

-1.1Somewhat expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 68.9th percentile of modeled fair value — 31% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 51%Historical base rate: 68%

US Equities

SPY · US Large-Cap Index

-1.6Expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 77.3th percentile of modeled fair value — 23% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 51%Historical base rate: 85%

Energy

USO · US Crude Oil

-1.8Expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 80.3th percentile of modeled fair value — 20% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 36%Historical base rate: 61%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Sources10

1
S&P 500 Earnings Season Update: October 23, 2026
FactSet
2
ICE BofA US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread (BAMLH0A0HYM2)
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), data from ICE Data Indices
3
Emerging Markets P/E & Valuations 2026
Siblis Research
4
Europe P/E Ratio & Valuations 2026
Siblis Research
5
Japan (Nikkei 225) P/E & CAPE Ratio 2026
Siblis Research
6
Short-Term Energy Outlook (October 2026)
U.S. Energy Information Administration
7
The altii-BTC-Report 2026-10-29
altii
8
The State of REITs: October 2026 Edition
2nd Market Capital Advisory Corp
9
World Bank lifts copper price outlook by 18%
MINING.COM
10
Gold Demand Trends: Q2 2026 — Central Banks
World Gold Council

Methodology: cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4
Schema version: 3.4.0
Run ID: valuation-lens-2026-10-29-r1

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.