US Equities
Today’s price sits at the 77.3th percentile of modeled fair value — 23% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 92.7
- Upside to median
- -7.3%
- Last close
- $769.36
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +25.5%
- P75
- +15.8%
- Median
- +5.0%
- P25
- -5.8%
- P10
- -15.5%
62% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Dividend yield plus forward earnings growth less 25% annual convergence toward median fair value and partial margin normalization, with a 16% annualized dispersion.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +15.8%
- P75
- +10.2%
- Median
- +4.0%
- P25
- -2.2%
- P10
- -7.8%
Earnings growth plus shareholder yield less a valuation drag as the multiple partially normalizes over three years; dispersion scaled for a multi-year horizon.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.42%
- Modeled excess
- +0.6%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1-year median return less the 4.42% 1-year Treasury par yield; the modeled edge is thin relative to equity risk, and Treasuries offer a competitive lower-uncertainty alternative.
10 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY US Large-Cap Index | -1.6Expensive | 92.7 | $769.36 | +5.0% |
| DIA US Blue-Chip Index | —Unavailable | — | $522.73 | — |
| IWM US Small-Cap Index | —Unavailable | — | $284.01 | — |
| QQQ US Technology Index | —Unavailable | — | $715.34 | — |
| RSP US Equal-Weight Index | —Unavailable | — | $220.04 | — |
| SMH US Semiconductor Sector | —Unavailable | — | $561.67 | — |
| XLF US Financial Sector | —Unavailable | — | $56.94 | — |
| XLI US Industrial Sector | —Unavailable | — | $170.13 | — |
| XLV US Healthcare Sector | —Unavailable | — | $184.04 | — |
| XLY US Consumer Discretionary Sector | —Unavailable | — | $116.20 | — |