Crypto
Today’s price sits at the 52.3th percentile of modeled fair value — 48% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 0–200 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 40–160 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 98.1
- Upside to median
- -1.9%
- Last close
- $45.71
- Confidence
- low-moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +67.1%
- P75
- +36.7%
- Median
- +3.0%
- P25
- -30.7%
- P10
- -61.1%
52% of modeled scenarios end positive.
No income; modest adoption-driven drift less a real-rate carry penalty, with a 50% annualized dispersion.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +41.2%
- P75
- +23.6%
- Median
- +4.0%
- P25
- -15.6%
- P10
- -33.2%
Adoption-driven drift with no valuation convergence assumed; dispersion scaled for a multi-year horizon.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.42%
- Modeled excess
- -1.4%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1-year median return less the 4.42% 1-year Treasury par yield; the modeled median does not clear the Treasury hurdle and uncertainty is extreme.