Metals
Data cutoff
Modeled fair value
GLD · Gold
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100
Today’s price sits at the 69.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 31% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 93.4
- Upside to median
- -6.6%
- Last close
- $368.57
- Confidence
- moderate-high
index, market = 100
2026-10-29
67/100
Modeled returns
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +25.1%
- P75
- +14.1%
- Median
- +2.0%
- P25
- -10.1%
- P10
- -21.1%
54% of modeled scenarios end positive.
No income; institutional price paths blended with partial convergence toward median fair value and a real-rate carry penalty, with an 18% annualized dispersion.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +15.8%
- P75
- +9.5%
- Median
- +2.5%
- P25
- -4.5%
- P10
- -10.8%
Real-price mean reversion offset by structural official-sector demand over three years; dispersion scaled for a multi-year horizon.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.42%
- Modeled excess
- -2.4%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1-year median return less the 4.42% 1-year Treasury par yield; the modeled median falls short of the Treasury hurdle.
Instruments