China & Hong Kong Equities
Today’s price sits at the 38.8th percentile of modeled fair value — 61% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 104.3
- Upside to median
- +4.3%
- Last close
- $48.96
- Confidence
- moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +40.8%
- P75
- +25.0%
- Median
- +7.5%
- P25
- -10.0%
- P10
- -25.8%
61% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Dividend yield plus earnings growth plus 20% annual convergence toward median fair value, with a 26% annualized dispersion reflecting policy and geopolitical risk; USD terms.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +25.7%
- P75
- +16.6%
- Median
- +6.5%
- P25
- -3.6%
- P10
- -12.7%
Income plus earnings growth with partial valuation convergence over three years; dispersion scaled for a multi-year horizon.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.42%
- Modeled excess
- +3.1%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1-year median return less the 4.42% 1-year Treasury par yield; a modeled spread with very wide uncertainty, not a guaranteed excess return.
9 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCHI China Broad Market | +0.7Somewhat cheap | 104.3 | $48.96 | +7.5% |
| 2800.HK Hang Seng Index Tracker | —Unavailable | — | $23.64 | — |
| 3033.HK Hang Seng Technology Index | —Unavailable | — | $3.67 | — |
| ASHR China A-Shares | —Unavailable | — | $30.39 | — |
| CHIQ China Consumer Sector | —Unavailable | — | $15.37 | — |
| CQQQ China Technology Sector | —Unavailable | — | $38.74 | — |
| EWH Hong Kong Broad Market | —Unavailable | — | $22.02 | — |
| FXI China Large-Cap | —Unavailable | — | $32.69 | — |
| KWEB China Internet Sector | —Unavailable | — | $22.79 | — |