Energy
Today’s price sits at the 80.3th percentile of modeled fair value — 20% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 86.6
- Upside to median
- -13.4%
- Last close
- $168.19
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +36.9%
- P75
- +15.6%
- Median
- -8.0%
- P25
- -31.6%
- P10
- -52.9%
41% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Expected spot path toward official and institutional forecasts, plus futures roll and collateral yield, with a 35% annualized dispersion reflecting geopolitical supply risk.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +19.6%
- P75
- +7.5%
- Median
- -6.0%
- P25
- -19.5%
- P10
- -31.6%
Normalization of crude toward long-run marginal-cost levels as Middle East supply recovers; dispersion scaled for a multi-year horizon.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.42%
- Modeled excess
- -12.4%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1-year median return less the 4.42% 1-year Treasury par yield; the modeled median is well below the Treasury hurdle, with very wide two-sided risk.