Fixed Income
Today’s price sits at the 37.8th percentile of modeled fair value — 62% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 101.3
- Upside to median
- +1.3%
- Last close
- $71.38
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +13.0%
- P75
- +9.3%
- Median
- +5.3%
- P25
- +1.3%
- P10
- -2.4%
81% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Starting carry anchored to the Treasury curve plus a modest spread, plus partial convergence toward median fair value, with 6% annualized dispersion from duration and spread moves.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +9.7%
- P75
- +7.6%
- Median
- +5.2%
- P25
- +2.8%
- P10
- +0.7%
Starting yield as the dominant multi-year anchor with partial valuation convergence; dispersion scaled for a three-year horizon.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.42%
- Modeled excess
- +0.9%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1-year median return less the 4.42% 1-year Treasury par yield; a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return. The 1-year Treasury offers a similar return with far less price risk.
7 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BND US Broad Bond Market | +0.7Somewhat cheap | 101.3 | $71.38 | +5.3% |
| HYG High-Yield Corporate Bonds | —Unavailable | — | $77.58 | — |
| IEF Intermediate US Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $91.25 | — |
| LQD Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds | —Unavailable | — | $104.22 | — |
| SHY Short-Term US Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $81.58 | — |
| TIP Inflation-Protected Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $106.44 | — |
| TLT Long-Term US Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $81.49 | — |