Japan Equities
Data cutoff
Modeled fair value
EWJ · Japan Broad Market
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100
Today’s price sits at the 67.2th percentile of modeled fair value — 33% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 95.4
- Upside to median
- -4.6%
- Last close
- $94.94
- Confidence
- moderate-high
index, market = 100
2026-10-29
68/100
Modeled returns
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +27.3%
- P75
- +17.0%
- Median
- +5.5%
- P25
- -6.0%
- P10
- -16.3%
63% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Dividend yield plus earnings growth less 20% annual convergence toward median fair value, with a 17% annualized dispersion; USD terms.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +17.6%
- P75
- +11.6%
- Median
- +5.0%
- P25
- -1.6%
- P10
- -7.6%
Income plus normalized earnings growth with partial valuation convergence over three years; dispersion scaled for a multi-year horizon.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.42%
- Modeled excess
- +1.1%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1-year median USD return less the 4.42% 1-year Treasury par yield; a thin modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return.
Instruments