Valuation Lens — October 27, 2026
US large caps, Australia-led Pacific equities and crude oil trade above modeled fair value, China and Hong Kong and core bonds screen cheapest, and a 4.50% 1-year Treasury leaves thin expected edges for most risk assets.
Every asset class is indexed so today’s market price equals 100. A median fair value of 112 means the model puts fair value 12% above the current price; 93 means 7% below it. Modeled returns are distributions, not forecasts.
The 1-year Treasury par yield of 4.50% sets the annual hurdle, with the curve rising to 4.99% at 10 years and a 2.64% 10-year real yield near the top of its 20-year range.
- 10y Treasury
- 5.0%
- 10y real
- 2.6%
Cheap to expensive
Ranked by valuation score. Positive means the model sees value below the market price — the opposite convention to a trend score, so the labels are always shown alongside.
- +1.4Cheap
- Median fair value
- 108.099.2–118.1
- Upside to median
- +8.0%
- 1y modeled
- +9.0%-20.0% to 35.0%
- vs Treasury
- +4.5%
- Fixed IncomeBND+0.9Somewhat cheap
- Median fair value
- 101.299.0–103.2
- Upside to median
- +1.2%
- 1y modeled
- +5.3%-0.8% to 10.0%
- vs Treasury
- +0.8%
- +0.2Fair
- Median fair value
- 101.093.6–109.1
- Upside to median
- +1.0%
- 1y modeled
- +8.0%-16.0% to 29.0%
- vs Treasury
- +3.5%
- Real EstateVNQ+0.2Fair
- Median fair value
- 101.094.3–108.4
- Upside to median
- +1.0%
- 1y modeled
- +6.0%-16.0% to 25.0%
- vs Treasury
- +1.5%
- CryptoBTC-USD+0.2Fair
- Median fair value
- 102.085.1–123.6
- Upside to median
- +2.0%
- 1y modeled
- +4.0%-45.0% to 75.0%
- vs Treasury
- -0.5%
- -0.2Fair
- Median fair value
- 99.092.9–105.8
- Upside to median
- -1.0%
- 1y modeled
- +7.0%-12.0% to 23.0%
- vs Treasury
- +2.5%
- -0.3Fair
- Median fair value
- 99.092.6–105.1
- Upside to median
- -1.0%
- 1y modeled
- +7.0%-13.0% to 24.0%
- vs Treasury
- +2.5%
- MetalsGLD-0.8Somewhat expensive
- Median fair value
- 95.084.9–105.1
- Upside to median
- -5.0%
- 1y modeled
- +2.0%-18.0% to 22.0%
- vs Treasury
- -2.5%
- -1.6Expensive
- Median fair value
- 93.086.9–99.4
- Upside to median
- -7.0%
- 1y modeled
- +5.0%-13.0% to 20.0%
- vs Treasury
- +0.5%
- EnergyUSO-1.7Expensive
- Median fair value
- 88.080.6–98.1
- Upside to median
- -12.0%
- 1y modeled
- -4.0%-35.0% to 30.0%
- vs Treasury
- -8.5%
- US EquitiesSPY-1.8Expensive
- Median fair value
- 92.084.9–98.4
- Upside to median
- -8.0%
- 1y modeled
- +6.0%-14.0% to 22.0%
- vs Treasury
- +1.5%
Scores run −3 to +3: −3 is very expensive against modeled fair value, +3 very cheap. Positive means undervalued.
“1y modeled” shows the median of a scenario distribution with its 10th-to-90th percentile range beneath. These are model outputs under stated assumptions, not predictions, and the range is as important as the midpoint.
Where the market sits inside modeled fair value
Each curve is the model's full range of fair-value outcomes. The solid marker is today's price; the dashed line is the median of the distribution.
China & Hong Kong Equities
Today’s price sits at the 26.9th percentile of modeled fair value — 73% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Fixed Income
Today’s price sits at the 35.4th percentile of modeled fair value — 65% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
Emerging Markets Equities
Today’s price sits at the 46.4th percentile of modeled fair value — 54% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Real Estate
Today’s price sits at the 46.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 54% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Crypto
Today’s price sits at the 46.8th percentile of modeled fair value — 53% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 20–200 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–160 would clip this distribution’s tails.
Japan Equities
Today’s price sits at the 54.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 46% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Europe Equities
Today’s price sits at the 54.4th percentile of modeled fair value — 46% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Metals
Today’s price sits at the 63.1th percentile of modeled fair value — 37% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
Developed Pacific Equities
Today’s price sits at the 76.9th percentile of modeled fair value — 23% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Energy
Today’s price sits at the 78.8th percentile of modeled fair value — 21% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
US Equities
Today’s price sits at the 80.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 20% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Sources8
- 1
- 2Short-Term Energy Outlook (October 2026)U.S. Energy Information Administration
- 3
- 4Europe P/E Ratio & Valuations 2026Siblis Research
- 5P/E Ratios by Country 2026Siblis Research
- 6
- 7
- 8
- Methodology
- cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4
- Schema version
- 3.4.0
- Run ID
- valuation-lens-2026-10-27-261027001
This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.