Metals
Today’s price sits at the 63.1th percentile of modeled fair value — 37% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 95.0
- Upside to median
- -5.0%
- Last close
- $372.28
- Confidence
- low-moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +22.0%
- P75
- +12.0%
- Median
- +2.0%
- P25
- -8.0%
- P10
- -18.0%
55% of modeled scenarios end positive.
No income; a small median return assumes partial drift toward the modeled fair value offset by continued official-sector buying, with wide dispersion from real-yield and geopolitical shocks.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +13.0%
- P75
- +8.0%
- Median
- +3.0%
- P25
- -2.5%
- P10
- -8.0%
Long-run real price stability plus inflation, less partial convergence to fair value.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.50%
- Modeled excess
- -2.5%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1-year median return less the 4.50% 1-year Treasury par yield; a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return. The Treasury offers a higher median with far lower uncertainty.